Comments on: WHAT’S ON SECOND?: The Japanese are Coming Part II REDO http://seamheads.com/2007/11/26/what%e2%80%99s-on-second-the-japanese-are-coming-part-ii-redo/ Mon, 21 May 2012 16:32:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: KJOK http://seamheads.com/2007/11/26/what%e2%80%99s-on-second-the-japanese-are-coming-part-ii-redo/comment-page-1/#comment-5751 KJOK Tue, 24 Feb 2009 00:53:18 +0000 http://seamheads.com/blog/2007/11/26/what%e2%80%99s-on-second-the-japanese-are-coming-part-ii-redo/#comment-5751 Paul: The 10% of step two is a guestimate, based on previous studies. Now that I have abundant data for U.S. Minor leaguers playing in Japan, I'll be able to confirm a more exact figure soon. The 'plug' is really not a shortcut at all, but simply the missing variable of an A + B = C type of equation, where you know A and C, so you 'plug' B. I'm not sure where I mentioned the average fence distances, but they're really not used at all in the calculation - they were just a comment about the fence differences not seeming to explain the total difference in HR's between MLB and NPB. I did use average LF, CF, RF of MLB vs. NPB, which is not the most accurate comparison as 5 ft difference down the lines makes more HR difference than 5 ft to straightway center field.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('5751','KJOK'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('5751','KJOK','Paul:\r\n\r\nThe 10% of step two is a guestimate, based on previous studies. Now that I have abundant data for U.S. Minor leaguers playing in Japan, I\'ll be able to confirm a more exact figure soon.\r\n\r\nThe \'plug\' is really not a shortcut at all, but simply the missing variable of an A + B = C type of equation, where you know A and C, so you \'plug\' B.\r\n\r\nI\'m not sure where I mentioned the average fence distances, but they\'re really not used at all in the calculation - they were just a comment about the fence differences not seeming to explain the total difference in HR\'s between MLB and NPB. I did use average LF, CF, RF of MLB vs. NPB, which is not the most accurate comparison as 5 ft difference down the lines makes more HR difference than 5 ft to straightway center field.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Paul:

The 10% of step two is a guestimate, based on previous studies. Now that I have abundant data for U.S. Minor leaguers playing in Japan, I’ll be able to confirm a more exact figure soon.

The ‘plug’ is really not a shortcut at all, but simply the missing variable of an A + B = C type of equation, where you know A and C, so you ‘plug’ B.

I’m not sure where I mentioned the average fence distances, but they’re really not used at all in the calculation – they were just a comment about the fence differences not seeming to explain the total difference in HR’s between MLB and NPB. I did use average LF, CF, RF of MLB vs. NPB, which is not the most accurate comparison as 5 ft difference down the lines makes more HR difference than 5 ft to straightway center field.

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]]> By: Paul Wendt http://seamheads.com/2007/11/26/what%e2%80%99s-on-second-the-japanese-are-coming-part-ii-redo/comment-page-1/#comment-5740 Paul Wendt Mon, 23 Feb 2009 22:59:42 +0000 http://seamheads.com/blog/2007/11/26/what%e2%80%99s-on-second-the-japanese-are-coming-part-ii-redo/#comment-5740 Kevin, Which of the three component adjustments at steps 2-3-4 are calculated and which are guestimated? You call the third adjustment a "plug" which is vague to me. It suggests a shortcut, leaving some analysis incomplete (or while some analysis in progress is still incomplete), but the basis for the first two "competition level" and "run scoring" adjustments is vague too. This may help. Are you using some average distance to the outfield fences as follows? The difference dR in average runs per game is one part difference dF in "fence distance" and one part everything else. dR = dF + other<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('5740','Paul Wendt'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('5740','Paul Wendt','Kevin,\r\nWhich of the three component adjustments at steps 2-3-4 are calculated and which are guestimated? You call the third adjustment a \"plug\" which is vague to me. It suggests a shortcut, leaving some analysis incomplete (or while some analysis in progress is still incomplete), but the basis for the first two \"competition level\" and \"run scoring\" adjustments is vague too.\r\n\r\nThis may help. Are you using some average distance to the outfield fences as follows? The difference dR in average runs per game is one part difference dF in \"fence distance\" and one part everything else. \r\ndR = dF + other'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Kevin,
Which of the three component adjustments at steps 2-3-4 are calculated and which are guestimated? You call the third adjustment a “plug” which is vague to me. It suggests a shortcut, leaving some analysis incomplete (or while some analysis in progress is still incomplete), but the basis for the first two “competition level” and “run scoring” adjustments is vague too.

This may help. Are you using some average distance to the outfield fences as follows? The difference dR in average runs per game is one part difference dF in “fence distance” and one part everything else.
dR = dF + other

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