I wouldn’t lay money on any one of them but I would lay money on the field and can I throw in Johan Santana? That’s my only point in this, someone is going to do it. I’m not writing off 300 games as an unreachable mark.

And I get the travel piece but no one is taking a train or bus these days either. And the largest group of 300-game winners did not occur when players were playing 4 and 5 game sets… as a matter of fact, during that time, players were reaching 300 wins at an even lesser pace than ever. And guys are in much better physical condition than they were in the past, also.

How many major leaguers nowadays take the path back down to the minors? It was extremely common in the past, most guys spent several years in the minors after their ML career was over.

I can see an argument is possible for your top 3 guys. But looking at Mike’s list, only Sabathia and Buehrle are in the running for the average amount of wins. You are right, you SHOULD never say never, because as we all know, never is a mighty long time.

I just don’t think it’s something I’d lay any money on, except maybe on Sabathia.

Oh, and one more thing, travel in the old days was way easier than what they do today. Especially in an 8 game league. It’s a rare series these days that lasts longer than 3 games, but old codger that I am, I remember 4 and 5 game sets, and really old coots can remember week long series. No one schedules any double headers anymore, and I can’t tell you how many Labor Day double headers I sat thru bemoaning the fact that school was starting the next day. The season when I was young started right around April 15, tax day, and ended in September, the World Series was over by the second week of October.

Age 25: 56- 42
Age 26: 73- 53
Age 27: 95- 64
Age 28: 113- 76
Age 29: 132- 87
Age 30: 152- 99
Age 31: 170-110
Age 32: 188-120
Age 33: 206-132
Age 34: 221-143
Age 35: 239-152

Now here are the most similar pitchers at each age (Age win totals/Career win totals):

Age 25: Hooks Dauss (56/222)
Age 26: Bill Monboquette (73/114)
Age 27: Tom Glavine (95/303 and counting)
Age 28: Bret Saberhagen (113/167)
Age 29: Denny McLain (131/131)
Age 30: Ed Walsh (155/195)
Age 31: Doc White (169/187)
Age 32: Ed Walsh
Age 33: Don Sutton (205/324)
Age 34: Catfish Hunter (224/224)
Age 35: Greg Maddux (240/347 and counting)

My guess is Jeff King was grounded enough to not go insane with his $$$ and stay under control.

And when you talk about travel… the conditions that these players travel under are so much better than the conditions players in the 60s, 70s and 80s travelled under. I’m sure the wear and tear balances out.

It’s so dangerous to say never in baseball. Baseball history has been filled with the word ‘never’ and it seems to always come back to haunt the person who wrote it. When Willie Mays hit his 600th homer, there were writers who wrote no one would ever hit 600 HRs again. Hank Aaron did it two years later. Ty Cobb’s 892 stolen bases was long to be a ‘never broken’ feat… someone forgot to tell Lou Brock and Rickey Henderson.

All it would take is Sabathia to break out and have two 20-win seasons and next thing you know he is ahead of some of the greats in this 300 win category. In addition, one of those long shots could bounce back and start pitching lights out and we have another contender… it’s just too iffy to call it a done deal that 300 wins is a milestone that can never be touched again. Ask Jayson Stark about what he wrote soon after Roger Clemens did it last when he declared it unlikely for anyone to do it again.

I’d forgotten about Nolan Ryan. He’s a good example of longevity, and a freakish body. Carlton’s 8th season was his 27-10 season with the Phillies, a season that most likely will never be duplicated. He’d already shown plenty of flashes though, he’d won 20 the season before with the Cardinals, and had already played in 2 world series with them(although not contributing much). He’d come up for the first time very young at the age of 20. I think I’ve read that he was the last pitcher to throw 300 inning in a season, I certainly don’t think that is going to be challenged any time soon. But for 15 straight seasons (69-84) his ERA was never over 3.72, and was one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball each and every year(you could quibble about 1970).

I just don’t think you can make that argument for any of these guys, save the top 3 of Hudson and Sabathia and Oswalt.

But it’s a very interesting read. I just think that the money and travel are going to sap any guys desire to try to hang on. Sure, people complained about how much money ballplayers made 60 years ago, but if you adjust for inflation, it still is peanuts compared to what guys are getting paid today. Ted Williams or Hank Greenberg or Mantle or DiMaggio certainly couldn’t retire with the money they made from baseball. Jeff King hung them up at the age of 34 because he’d made plenty of dough and would rather go hunting. He’s not a lone example.

By no means am I saying that all of these guys will hit 300 wins and I doubt we see a run like the pitchers in the 80s that accomplished the feat. However, could 1, 2 or 3 of these guys break out and a player like Johan Santana continue along his path and make it too… of course!

At age 28, Ryan was only averaging a little more than 11 wins per season. When Glavine hit 100 wins at age 28, he was averaging 13.5 wins per season. And Carlton did not reach 100 wins until his 8th season and was averaging 13 wins per season.

It’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out but I’ve seen the white flag waved too often and too soon on accomplishments that will never happen again.

It’s going to take take stamina, longevity and consistency to get there and that group of 10 is a little lacking. But at least one of those players will make it happen.

Zito as of now has averaged just slightly more than 14 wins a season in 8 years. He’s only had 3 seasons of more than 14 wins, and 2 of them came in his first 3 seasons. That coupled with his rising ERA makes it seem way less than likely for him to even break 225, let alone 300.

I can see some chance for Hudson, Oswalt and Sabathia. But just some. Who among us when Dwight Gooden came up would have thought he would have falled short? He’d won 100 games by the time he was 24, and never even got to 200. I don’t think any of the top candidates here have anywhere near the talent level he did.

Sure, some guys with lesser talent have the bodies to hang on long enough to get there, like Gaylord Perry. But I think the vast majority of 300 game winners are like Carlton, or Seaver, bright flaming stars that dominated for a long, long time.