The Favorite Toy and the Home Run King—Revisited

Last year I wrote an article about the top home run hitters and their chances of eclipsing Barry Bonds’ 762 circuit clouts.  Here’s a look at their chances after putting up another season’s worth of four-baggers.

As I mentioned in the original article, I used Bill James’ “Favorite Toy” formula (now referred to as the “Career Assessment” formula) to calculate the odds of MLB’s top sluggers catching and surpassing Bonds atop the leaderboard.  At this time last year only Alex Rodriguez (54.8%) had a legitimate shot at 763, while Albert Pujols had an outside chance at 11.1%.

Here are the top five from 2007:

Player	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
Alex Rodriguez	31	518	245	46.7	5.5	54.8	775
Albert Pujols	27	282	481	39.2	7.5	11.1	576
Adam Dunn	27	238	525	40.0	7.5	7.1	538
Ryan Howard	27	129	634	46.5	7.5	5.0	478
Andruw Jones	30	368	395	35.2	6.0	3.4	579

ELP=Established Level of Production, YRS=years remaining in career

Now let’s take a look at how those five stand after last season:

Player	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
Alex Rodriguez	32	553	210	44.4	5.0	48.4	760
Albert Pujols	28	319	444	37.3	7.0	8.9	580
Ryan Howard	28	177	586	49.3	7.0	8.9	522
Adam Dunn	28	278	485	40.0	7.0	7.7	558
Andruw Jones	31	371	392	17.0	5.5	0.0	465

A few interesting things have happened since the end of the 2007 season.  A-Rod’s and Pujols’ chances dropped, although Rodriguez still has a legitimate shot at catching Bonds, while Dunn’s and Howard’s improved.  After hitting 48 more homers in 2008, Howard is a legitimate 500-homer threat and is now tied with Pujols in second place at an 8.9% chance of catching Bonds.  And after hitting only three home runs in 2008, Andruw Jones all but guaranteed he won’t catch Bonds.  In fact, he lost 114 homers from his 2007 projection and his chance of hitting even 500 homers dropped from 97% in 2007 to 22.5% as of this writing.

Now let’s take a look at the top 10 active home run hitters to see how their projections changed.

Ken Griffey Jr.	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	37	593	170	29.8	2.5	0.0	668
2008	38	611	152	23.5	2.0	0.0	658

Junior had no chance of catching Bonds after 2007 and his chances dropped even further (if that’s possible) after he hit only 18 homers in 2008.  He’s now projected to hit 658 home runs with a 44% chance of passing Willie Mays for fourth place on the all-time list.  If he’s able to stay healthy and productive long enough to achieve that, he’ll have to be satisfied with fourth.  According to the Favorite Toy, Griffey has a 0% chance of catching Babe Ruth in third place.

Jim Thome	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	36	507	256	32.7	3.0	0.0	605
2008	37	541	222	35.7	2.5	0.0	630

Last year Thome enjoyed his first 500-at-bat season since 2004 and blasted another 34 homers at the age of 37, giving him 541 for his career.  He has no chance of topping Bonds’ mark, but his projected total increased by 25 and his chance of passing Sammy Sosa currently stands at 79.2%, while his chance of passing Mays went from 13.6% to 24.3%.  He also has a 1.2% chance of passing Ruth.  If he’s able to maintain his current established level of production (just shy of 36 homers) in 2009, he’ll pass Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson, Rafael Palmeiro, and Harmon Killebrew on the all-time list and will be only six shy of Mark McGwire heading into 2010.

Manny Ramirez	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	35	490	273	29.2	3.5	0.0	592
2008	36	541	221	31.0	3.0	0.0	620

Manny rebounded last year from his 20-homer 2007 and belted 37 dingers, 17 of which came with the Dodgers in only 53 games.  After hitting one round-tripper every 18.3 at-bats for the Red Sox, Ramirez circled the bags once every 11 at-bats while sporting Dodger blue.  Like the other 35-and-older vets he has virtually no chance of catching Bonds, but Manny lives in his own world and none of us can predict what he might do.  He may play until he’s 50; he may quit tomorrow.  If he plays another three years as predicted, he’s projected to end up with 620 homers.  He has a 62% chance of passing Sosa, a 19.4% chance of passing Mays, and a 3.4% chance of hitting 715 homers and passing Ruth (but no chance of passing Aaron).

Frank Thomas	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	39	513	250	28.0	1.5	0.0	555
2008	40	521	242	19.2	1.0	0.0	550

There was a time when the “Big Hurt” was being compared to Lou Gehrig and Ted Williams, appropriate considering his last home run of 2008 was the 521st of his career, tying him with Williams and Willie McCovey for 18th on the all-time list.  But Thomas hit only eight home runs last year and has averaged only 19.2 since 2006, and he’ll be 41 years old on May 27.  If he plays and produces at an average rate, he’ll pass Jimmie Foxx and Mickey Mantle, but his projected total of 550 looks a little ambitious at this point.

Gary Sheffield	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	38	480	283	20.2	2.0	0.0	520
2008	39	499	264	18.8	1.5	0.0	527

Sheffield needs only one more homer for 500 and if he produces at his ELP he should finish the 2009 season just shy of Williams, McCovey, and Thomas on the all-time list.  He’s not the hitter he once was—his 90 OPS+ was his first sub-100 mark since he was a 22-year-old malcontent with the Brewers—but it’ll be interesting to see if he can hold it together long enough to pass Eddie Murray, Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, and Ernie Banks on the home run list.

Carlos Delgado	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	35	431	332	30.2	3.5	0.0	537
2008	36	469	294	33.3	3.0	0.0	569

After a 38-homer season at the age of 36 in 2008, Delgado added 32 homers to his projected total and boosted his chance of passing Sosa to 20.9%, and passing Mays to 2.1%.  Of course he has no chance of catching Bonds, Aaron, or Ruth, but 569 career homers could put him in the top 10 if Thome falls short and A-Rod gets run over by a taxi (we can always hope).

Chipper Jones	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	35	386	377	26.7	3.5	0.0	479
2008	36	408	355	25.0	3.0	0.0	483

At 36 years old last season, Chipper Jones may be as good a hitter as he’s ever been—he flirted with .400 for a while, batted a career-high .364, and posted a career-best .470 OBA—but he’s not a prototypical power hitter capable of putting up huge seasons.  Not to mention he’s recorded only one 500-at-bat season since 2004. Therefore he has only a 31.5% chance of reaching 500 home runs and a slim 2.8% chance of hitting 550.  If he reaches the 483 homers projected for him, he’ll pass Stan Musial and Willie Stargell on the all-time list, and that’s still saying something.

Jason Giambi	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	36	364	399	24.7	3.0	0.0	438
2008	37	396	367	26.8	2.5	0.0	463

After a poor 2007 in which Giambi hit only 14 homers in 83 games, he rebounded last year and belted 32.  His resurgence boosted his projected career total to 463 (right between Dave Winfield and Jose Canseco) with a 14.5% chance of reaching 500 and a 2% chance of hitting 525.

Vlad Guerrero	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	31	365	398	29.8	5.5	0.0	529
2008	32	392	371	28.0	5.0	0.0	532

After three straight years of at least 30 home runs and eight of nine in which he belted 30 or more, Guerrero has recorded back-to-back 27-homer seasons and is on pace to hit 532.  Even at “only” 32 years old, he has no chance of catching Bonds, Aaron, or Ruth, but he has a a 14.2% chance of catching Sosa and a 2% chance of catching Mays.  At his current pace, he also has a very good 79.6% chance to join the 500-homer club.

Jim Edmonds	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	37	362	401	17.2	2.5	0.0	405
2008	38	382	381	17.2	2.0	0.0	416

Edmonds is no longer a full-time player—he hasn’t had a 500-at-bat season since 2001 (although he just missed in 2004)—and has only one 20-homer season in his last three campaigns.  He’s projected to hit 416 home runs, which will put him just ahead of Darrell Evans (414) at 41st on the all-time list, but he has a .5% chance of catching Jeff Bagwell (449) at #34.  As Lloyd Christmas would say: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”  Yes, Lloyd, it’s a one-in-a-million chance, but it’s still a chance.

Lastly, let’s take a look at a few up-and-comers and see how their futures look:

Prince Fielder	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	23	80	683	37.5	9.5	2.2	436
2008	24	114	649	38.3	9.0	3.2	459

Fielder wasn’t nearly as good in 2008 as he was in 2007, but his chance of catching Bonds improved by 1% and his projected home run total jumped from 436 to 459.  He has a 39.4% chance of hitting 500 homers, a 21% chance of hitting 600, a 19.6% chance of passing Sosa, a 13.1% chance of passing Mays, a 7.4% chance of passing Ruth, and a 3.7% chance of passing Aaron.

Miguel Cabrera	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	24	138	625	31.2	9.0	0.0	419
2008	25	175	588	34.2	8.5	0.0	465

Cabrera still has a 0% chance of catching Bonds, but his prospects look brighter after a 37-homer campaign in 2008 with the Tigers. He has a 39.4% chance at 500, an 18.3% chance at 600, a 16.8% chance of passing Sosa, a 9.8% chance of passing Mays, and a 3.8% chance of passing Ruth.

Ryan Braun	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2008	24	71	692	35.8	9.0	0.0	407

I listed only 2008 because you need three years of data to make this thing work to the best of its ability and I had to use Braun’s MLEs from 2006 to get a third year.  Anyway, based on his MLE and his first two big league seasons, Braun is projected to hit 407 home runs with no chance of catching Bonds (or whomever is atop the home run list in 10 years).  He has a 26.5% chance of hitting 500 bombs, an 11.1% chance of hitting 600, a 9.9% chance of passing Sosa, and a 4.4% chance of passing Mays, but has no chance of passing Ruth, although he has a .8% chance of hitting 700 career home runs.

David Wright	Age	HR	Need	ELP	YRS	Chance	Est. HR
2007	24	97	666	28.2	9.0	0.0	351
2008	25	130	633	30.8	8.5	0.0	392

At this point Wright isn’t even projected to hit 400, let alone 763, but he improved his chances with a career-best 33 jacks last season, which added 41 homers to his projection.  He has a 20.8% chance at 500, a 5.8% chance at 600, and a 4.6% chance of passing Sosa.