Strasburg–Not A One-Act Play

Stephen Strasburg added to his legend last Friday night with a no-hitter in his last home game at SDSU, complete with seventeen strikeouts.  Everyone in DC is asking whether the Nationals can sign the emerging star? But will Strasburg be enough for the Nationals?  Can the single act of Strasburg signing on the dotted line transform the downtrodden franchise?

Strasburg, the 20-year old phenom, only gets better.  It now seems beyond question–since Jim Bowden went public in LA about it–that Washington will take Strasburg with the first selection in the June draft. But after the draft the Scott Boras drama begins. 

The Nationals are beginning to realize just how badly they need an attention-getter to steady the ship. Strasburg will provide the kind of stimulus Washington understands. It seems like just yesterday when everyone was asking of President Obama’s stimulus package, “Will it be enough?” Spot on.  Will Strasburg be enough to prime the pumps in DC? Can he take the worst team in baseball and make it better? Yes.  Does he constitute a makeover of the worst organization in baseball? No.

Signing him though will be Act One.  Buster Olney recently suggested in an ESPN piece that the Nationals need to take an aggressive approach with Boras on day-one after the draft.  He recommends that as the Dodgers did with Manny, the Nationals should put their best offer on the table from the jump.  He believes something in the $20 million neighborhood is a fair offer and what will be required to convince both Strasburg and Boras that the Nationals are serious.

Olney sees a big initial offer by the Nationals possibly closing out a quick negotiation with Boras.  Keith Law and others have speculated that Strasburg is ready to pitch in the majors right now.  If Strasburg is looking to prove he can jump to the majors straight from college, then signing well before the August 15 deadline will get him there no later than September 2009. 

Tony Gwynn–Strasburg’s coach at SDSU–rightly points out how many pitches his highly-prized right hander has thrown between the Olympics and college ball this spring.  He threw 129 pitches in the no-hitter Friday, and it was the second time this season he has hit that relatively high mark.  The Nationals might be penny wise and pound foolish to rush Strasburg to the majors.  Giving him a regular spot in the rotation after he signs makes little sense.  Easing him in with several September starts should provide an adequate showcase for all concerned.

Will Strasburg sign for twenty million?  That will be the first question. It would be more than double the signing bonuses of top players taken in the 2008 amateur draft.  Even Boras would have to agree that it is a serious offer.   No doubt the specters of Bill Caudill and Jason Varitek–the two Boras clients most damaged by the agent supreme–will haunt the negotiations. 

Boras knows however, that Stan Kasten and the Lerners cannot afford to fail with Strasburg. They offered Teixeira more than anyone else and he turned them down.  The Nationals’ top pick in 2008, Aaron Crow, said in effect he would pitch for no one rather than for the Nationals.  So, Strasburg will be a tough sign for Washington, but letting another big name get away will cost far more than the likely signing bonus.

The problem for the Nationals is that many in Washington believe their troubles can be solved by the signing of a single player. Even a player as gifted as Stephen Strasburg cannot solve the myriad problems in DC. 

It seems, however, that fielding the worst team in the majors two years in a row has not registered with Nationals management.  Team President Stan Kasten is still talking about how quickly the situation can be turned around. He has said that the team is closer to being competitive than many believe.  Fans hear that as meaning a dominant top of the rotation starter like Strasburg can turn them into contenders.  It is not so simple.

Washington needs someone who understands the depth of the hole they are in. Stan Kasten is a bright and capable executive, but he was not at the center of the success in Atlanta.  As GM he failed miserably for both the Braves and Atlanta’s basketball team, the Hawks. But he had the good sense to sign John Schuerholz to succeed him. Hopefully that “Ah-hah” moment is looming in DC. Hopefully a new GM with skills of that magnitude will be the one who plays a big role in the negotiating a successful contract with the best college pitcher in decades.

Signing Strasburg will warm up the orchestra, but will not get them playing. Washington needs to emerge from the June draft with more than just one blue chipper.  They need another draft like they had in 2007 where they signed all of their top picks.  Putting a new General Manager in charge of that effort would give draftees a sense of possibility and might net a better return than Bowden could deliver in 2008. 

Just as important, however, a new GM needs to evaluate what or who is working in their minor league organization and what is not. The Nationals organization has great scouting headed by Assistant GM Mike Rizzo and Scouting Director Dana Brown.  It needs more than just talent, it needs capable instruction that produces winners.  There is little to suggest the current organization can do that.

If Strasburg is Act One, and a new GM is Act Two, then fixing the approach with the fans is Act Three. Washington is watching a talented young man named Alex Ovechkin lead their hockey team deep into the playoffs. Ted Leonsis, the owner of the Washington Capitals hockey team, suggested to Stan Kasten that rather than going to Philly to sell tickets to folks up the road, he should try to sell them in DC. 

He suggested that Stan Kasten might want to take a page from his book.  Leonsis uses his ticket database to screen out zip codes from rivals and gives ongoing ticket preference to local zip codes and season ticket holders.  With Kasten selling tickets up and down the eastern seaboard, Washington Nationals fans are often drowned out by the cheers of opponents in their own stadium.  That does nothing to build a loyal fan base.

Build a team, build an organization, and build a fan base.  Even if he is every bit as good as they say he is, signing Stephen Strasburg is just the beginning.