NL East at the Half-Way House

The Phillies are on top and just starting to play the brand of baseball that won them the 2008 World Series.  If the pitching continues to improve, they will run away from the pack.  The Mets have more injured players than healthy ones and only a miracle could get them back into contention.  The Braves still don’t score a lot of runs and hand the ball over to a bullpen doesn’t always hold a lead. 

If the Phillies make a trade it is only to shore up their pitching for the playoffs.  The Marlins have the best chance to overtake them down the stretch in the NL East–but that is a long shot at best.

Atlanta (42-44).  The Braves did what everyone said they needed to do.  They traded for a bat and got Nate McLouth who has continued to put up the same numbers he did for the Pirates.  He makes the offense significantly better if not overwhelming.  Chipper Jones has stayed on the field most of the season, so given the strength of the starting rotation, the Braves should be pushing the Phillies.  Maybe they will, but to do so they have to make sense of their bullpen.

The still anemic Braves offense cuts the margin to operate rather close.  The problem in many of the recent years has been the Braves bullpen more than the starting pitching.  At first it just looked like they couldn’t buy a good reliever.  But I am beginning to wonder if the problem isn’t Bobby Cox. 

On paper the Braves pitching should be among the best in the league.  Tommy Hanson has given them another strong arm.  What is hurting the strong starting pitching is how little they are used.  Bobby Cox is at the head of the class when it comes to the conventional wisdom of bullpen use.  Cox says give me a lead into the sixth inning and I will show you three relievers, maybe four or five, to close the game out.

Cox makes more trips to the mound than any other manager, especially when you look at the strong starters he has.  During the past week he only let one pitcher go into the seventh inning–Javier Vasquez who threw 108 pitches in a 2-1 win before being taken out.  Last night Derek Lowe had allowed only five base runners in six innings and thrown only 88 pitches.  But Cox yanked him at the end of six and brought in three relievers to close out the game. 

I doubt the Braves bullpen will stand up to the wear and tear and will collapse before the season is out bringing the rest of the cards down on top of them.

Marlins (45-43)  The Marlins have the horses to keep pace with the Phillies, but they are young and it would take a leap of faith–or at least another quality starter–for them to best a more seasoned Philadelphia team.  Hanley Ramirez (16-60-.347)  has overtaken Jimmy Rollins as the most inspirational all-around player in the NL East and he has a lot of help.  Dan Uggla, Cody Ross, and Jorge Cantu are playing well although Uggla is hitting only .229.  Jeremy Hermida started strong though he has tailed off, but it is the pitching that will tell the tale.

Josh Johnson is having a career year and leads the team with a 7-2 record and a 2.82 ERA.  Ricky Nolasco was supposed to be every bit as good, but he struggled in April and May.  He turned his season around in June and that has been one important difference for the Marlins as they have surged back into contention. 

They other important change is Dan Meyer closing out games.  Matt Lindstrom wasn’t up to the job and got hurt.  Leo Nunez and Renyel Pinto stepped in and did credibly, but in the last week manager Fredi Gonzalez has been giving the ball to Meyer with good results. 

Meyer went from Atlanta to Oakland and beyond as promising but failed starter.  He has found success in a new role in relief.  He has been good all season long and now has an ERA of 1.81 and 32 Ks to 10 walks in 34 innings.  If he continues in the closer role it allows Pinto and Nunez to return to set-up duties where they have been excellent in the past.  It could bode well for the Marlins bullpen, but the starters still need to fill in behind Josh Johnson.

Philadelphia (46-38) If there was a sports writer in America that thought Raul Ibanez was going to lead the Phillies into another World Series, please step forward and claim your prize, but I want it time-stamped and notarized.  In Philadelphia Ibanez is just part of what is the best offense in the National League.  They are scoring a lot of runs–5.32 per game–more than anyone else and it is not really close.

They have four players on pace to hit forty home runs.  Ibanez, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth all have a chance to best that mark.  Shane Victorino is having another fine year.  If Jimmy Rollins rounds into form, the Phillies will run away with it in the second half.

To do so, however, their pitching will have to continue its current direction.  In June Joe Blanton kicked it into high gear and Cole Hammels has tried to follow suit.  J.A. Happ is filling in well for Brett Myers and while Jamie Moyer is not pitching all that well, he can win in front of the Phillies’ offense.  That leaves only Brad Lidge, who like Blanton seems to have started to take this a little more seriously.  Lidge has a lot more work to do however, still dragging an ERA of 7.03 into the All-Star break.

As in Atlanta, it may be the bullpen that spells the difference.  But for the Phillies, they can make the playoffs without a great pen because they can win even when someone manages to score a few late inning runs.  Trading for Roy Halladay would just put the Phillies in line for another World Series run.  They don’t really need him to win in a weaker NL East where the Mets may have folded the tent until next season.