The Cuyahoga Is Burning Again

Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro started with a few deft strokes, but before it was over Cleveland fans were keeping the women and children indoors at night.  It was a chainsaw massacre and by time the July trading deadline passed you could hardly identify the remains of the Tribe team that almost won it all in 2007.

There were predictions that the trade market would be quieted by the highly competitive divisional races, but the exact opposite proved true when the final bell rang on July 31st.  A depressed economy made sellers of the Indians, Pirates and A’s.  The rich got richer and huge bonuses were paid to the big investors–what a surprise.

Whether Boston, St. Louis or the Phillies won the deadline sweepstakes will be disputed until the end of Ocotober.  But no matter who wins the World Series, Cleveland fans took the loss and they are up in arms over the departure of VMart and Cliff Lee.

Tribe fans have waited expectantly for Martinez, Sizemore and Lee to bring home another championship.  But the number of fans willing to wait has dwindled steadily.  Attendance at the Jake has gone from over 3 million in 2001 to a projected 1.6 million for 2009.  The weak economy and lower attendance precipated the July fire sale, but what is left now that the smoke begins to clear?

Mark Shapiro traded away what was supposed to be the core of a championship team.  Ryan Garko, Raphael Betancourt, Ben Francisco, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez were assumed to be the backbone of a pennant winning team.  And though they went to the American League Championship Series in 2007, even then the Jake was less than half full most nights.  Only 2.2 million paid to see that team–21st overall.  So as those players moved into their peak earning years, who was going to pay them?

Shapiro also traded Mark DeRosa who was brought in last summer to cement the Cleveland offense for a run at the AL Central in ’08 and ’09.  The Tribe was competitive in ’08 in a weak division and the gate was respectable.  But this season everything has gone up in smoke.  Almost every trademark name is gone except Grady Sizemore.

And for what?  For all of the impressive talent traded away, what did Shapiro get?  Can Cleveland’s talented GM craft a phoenix from the ashes and how long will it take?  Will Cleveland fans still be paying attention if he does?

The best trade Shapiro made was the swap of Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals for Chris Perez and Jesse Todd.  First, DeRosa is the least important of the players shipped off to contenders in the past month.  He is a 34-year old whose career took a nice jump at age 33, but his salary is at its peak in contrast to his offensive production, which is almost certain to decline.  Perez and Todd could still be pitching for the major league minimum when DeRosa retires.

The best baseball trades–the ones that go down as shaping the future for teams–are those that net young top-of-the-rotation starters.  Young pitchers are the coin of the realm in baseball.  From that perspective Shapiro got back some gold nuggets for all that he traded away.

For DeRosa he got two young righthanders–the Cardinals’ number three and four prospects (Baseball America)–both of whom were high profile draft picks.  Perez has stepped into the Cleveland bullpen where he will likely to a fixture for years to come.  Todd may be even better though it remains to be seen whether he is a closer or starter.  He has four pitches including a 94 mph fastball and he is close to major league ready.  He could be a top of the rotation starter within the next couple of years.

Shapiro got DeRosa from the Cubs for three prospects–Stevens, Archer and Gaub–none of whom has the upside of Todd or Perez.  This one trade was not only relatively painless to Cleveland fans, it is all upside.  For relatively little they could have the best one-two punch out of the Tribe bullpen since Julian Tavarez was a 22-year old rookie setting up Jose Mesa.

It is the trades that followed that are the controversy and will spell Shapiro’s reputation going forward.  As the July deadline loomed Shapiro sent Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to Philadelphia for four propsects.  This trade is the worst.  In return for a Cy Young-winning pitcher, still in his prime and with playoff experience, the return is far less overwhelming.

At first glance Cleveland got four of the best prospects in the Philadelphia farm system.  But two of the players have been very disappointing in 2009 and overall this trade raises more quesitons than it answers.   The most highly coveted prizes in the Philadelphia system–Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown–got away.

Cleveland got Carlos Carrasco who Baseball America rated the second best prospect in the Philadelphia system at the beginning of 2009 on the strength of a strong 2008 season where he jumped to Triple A for six very strong starts.  This year he has had the same great strikeouts to walks rati0–112/38 in 114 innings–but has given up too many homers and been generally more hittable than in 2008.

The other two highly touted prospects, Lou Marson and Jason Donald are not setting the world on fire either.  Donald was labeled “Biggest Disappointment” by BA in its latest assessment of the Philadelphia farm system.  This trade may look better if Carrasco and Donald rebound.  They are both young, but this one won’t get the 2010 turnstiles spinning.

Shapiro did get a nice young pitcher in Scott Barnes from San Francisco for Ryan Garko.  And he got another young arm, Connor Graham, for Betancourt.  But who will play first base now that VMart and DeRosa have been traded away?  Andy Marte has been tearing up Triple-A, but counting on Marte to hit major league pitching has been a loser’s bet so far.

Shapiro has to count on the return for Victor Martinez to tip the scales back in his favor.  Boston, like Philadelphia, did not part with their most highly prized prospects.  Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden are still scheduled to anchor the Red Sox rotation when Brad Penny and Tim Wakefield are gone.

But the haul Cleveland got for VMart–Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price-is a respectable one.  Masterson was one of the highest rated prospects in the Red Sox organization in 2008 and has been very successful both starting and relieving for Boston.  He will likely slide into the starting rotation for Lee.  Lee was the ace of the staff and while Masterson is not quite that good, he may develop into a very good number number 3 starter.

Hagadone is the one who may replace Lee and on him Mark Shapiro’s reputation will rest.  He was Boston’s first pick in the 2007 draft and like Cliff Lee is a tall left-hander who projects to pitch at the top of the rotation.  The question is his health.

Hagadone has just returned from elbow surgery.  However, he seems to be picking up where he left off.  He has been dominating at High-A Greenville, striking out 32 in 25 innings, with a .149 batting average against.  His innings are being restricted because of his elbow, but he could shoot quickly through the Tribe’s minor league system in 2010.  If he does he will give Tribe fans something to make them forget Cliff Lee–the way Andrew McCutcheon is making Pirates fans forget Nate McLouth.

Cleveland has joined Pittsburgh and Oakland as small market franchises.  Shapiro may change that in years to come, but for now he is stuck trying to emulate Billy Beane.  Beane has played the July trading deadline the way Arnold Palmer once played Augusta.  When the smoke clears in 2010 we will see whether Mark Shapiro is the young genius his reputation once claimed, or just another GM looking for work.

The Cleveland fans may feel betrayed.  They may believe that the competitive baseball franchise, once a symbol of the city’s rebirth, has slipped away.  But ultimately they have only themselves to blame.  If they are lucky–very lucky– GM Mark Shapiro will bail them out.