Improved Pitching Could Signal the Return of the Jedi

Change does not happen with a thunderclap or a parting of the waters.  Trends emerge slowly, like the shift in baseball back toward a more pitching rich game.  Argue if you like, but I think the only thing that remains to be seen is how sharp the break will be, how soon before we pick up the spin on the ball of change.

As we head into the playoffs, I am struck by how dominant the pitching is on several of the heaviest favorites going into the playoffs, and how many dominant, old-style pitchers will be featured in great playoff matchups.  The first to draw attention was profiled in the New York Times setup piece about a likely Tigers-Yankees series.

Verlander and CC Sabathia is a matchup worthy of a bygone era.  And the winner of that likely series could go up against the Red Sox and their very old school master, Josh Beckett.  As much as I appreciate seeing those pitchers highlighted as the playoffs approach, none of them will detemine the shape of the playoffs or the World Series the way starting pitchers once did.

When Gibson and Lolich each pitched three games in the 1968 World Series, their impact on that great moment defined it.  No one remembers much what Lou Brock or Al Kaline did in that series.  The ability of pitchers to have that kind of impact on baseball has shrunk considerably as their number of appearances in any playoff series has diminished.  But the overall influence may be coming back–especially in the National League where it originally had its heyday.

The most important underlying truth was provided by the 2003 drug tests–or the somewhat unscrupulous piecemeal and selective release of the results.  They revealed how far performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) had reached into the game.  Many of the great hitters of an era when sluggers dominated the game have been unmasked as frauds and subjected either to sanction or ignominious public rebuke. 

The effect has to be to ratchet back the use of PEDs and diminish the surge in offensive production within the game.  It has opened up the game to improved pitching after two decades almost totally dominated by hitting stars.

Enter the St. Louis Cardinals of 2009 with a pitching staff that has done so much to lead that team to one of the best records in baseball in 2009.  Adam Wainright, Chris Carpenter, and Joel Pineiro have as much to do with the success of the Cardinals as Albert Pujols and Matt Holiday.  Wainwright and Carpenter have ERAs under 3.00 and Wainright could well reach 200 strikeouts for the season, a benchmark reached less and less often in recent seasons.

When comparing the two leagues, the NL emphasis on pitching and defense really does look like something from another era.  Sure, the Yankees ability to stack their lineup with Mark Teixiera, Alex Rodriguez and five other guys with 20+ home runs may win the day.  They may blast their way to another World Series and take home to goodies with only one dominant pitcher–CC Sabathia.  But pitching-rich NL teams could be the ones spell a trend that defines the future.

The Cardinal staff could wilt against the Yankees lineup.  Maybe the NL does not provide enough of a test and Wainwright and Carpenter will look like just average joes when they face the best of the American League–if they make it that far.  But the pitching in the NL harkens back to those days in the 1960′s when the Dodgers had Koufax and Drysdale and the Cardinals could win by throwing Gibson against you three times and a defense second to none.

The Phillies don’t lack for pitching depth either.  Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are far better than any one-two punch the AL can send out.  The Colorado Rockies have some of the best young pitchers in Jimenez and De la Rosa and they along with Jason Marquis their staff will determine how far the Rockies go, not the offense.

So while Verlander against Sabathia is a great matchup of two dominant pitchers, it will not determine which team goes farther into the playoffs.  Game two or three of the Yankees and Tigers will resolve itself into a slugfest and the great pitchers will not settle who wins the day. 

The Red Sox are the team to watch in the AL for me.  With Beckett and Lester they have the best pitching duo and young Clay Bucholz has the potential to match them up with anyone.  They are the closest thing to a National League team in the AL. 

Trend watching or not, the upcoming playoffs resolve themselves much the way they have so often in the recent past.  The Yankees are still the bombers–still the embodiment of the modern era.  And yes, Josh, they are still the “Evil Empire.” 

I am looking to Verlander and Jackson to stack up well, to slow the march of the Death Star Yankees.  And the best hope of the “Rebellion” may be the Red Sox, but longer term I believe it will be the pitching rich NL that undermines the Yankees. 

My league of choice all these long years–the NL–may be on the upswing again.  I will be rooting for the Cardinals, for Obi-wan LaRussa and his jedi pitching staff.  I will be hoping they can sneak past the shoddy defense of the Yankees and all the other bombers from the AL.