Down to Cases
October 26, 2009 by Ted Leavengood · 4 Comments
It’s down to the Phillies and the Yanks, remarkably similar teams, but built in different ways. Both have weaknesses in their bullpens, but relievers that any other team would love to have. Both can mash with the best, but the Yankees are the best. So what will the series come down to? The Phillies have home field advantage and their “exuberant” fans will have the house rocking when Sabathia hands the ball off to relievers like Aceves and Hughes, untested under that kind of pressure.
Starting pitching favors the Phillies and I am predicting–more likely hoping–that it will carry the day. The Phillies top two starters–Lee and Hamels–are better than Sabathia and Burnett but the big man carries a lot of weight, enough that the margin disappears. Beating Sabathia will be difficult for anyone.
Part of Sabathia’s strength is the lineup he has behind him. The pressure to keep them in check was too much for John Lackey in game one of the ALCS. So no matter how good Cliff Lee is, he is pitching against the deepest lineup in the majors. Regardless how much success he has against Teixeira or A-Rod, there are plenty who can provide Sabathia enough of a margin to win.
Lee is the scheduled starter for game one and has proven during the playoffs to be a big game pitcher. He can beat the Yankees. He pitched against their lineup three times for Cleveland in 2008 and 2009 and won twice. Over the course of those three very high-quality starts, he allowed the Yankees only 5 runs, shutting them out to win in 2008.
He lost a 3-2 heart breaker to them in 2009, but was in the contest all the way and pitched well. Can he beat his former team mate Sabathia? It is a tall order and even if he can match him until the late innings, whose bullpen will step up at the finish line? That will be the telling question.
It is a tough prediction, but the Phillies late inning relievers have more experience in this setting. Ryan Madson and Chan Ho Park were perfect for Philadelphia in crucial game four against the Dodgers and they will put pressure on the New York relievers. The fewer times Joe Giradi goes to the mound before handing the ball to Mariano Rivera, the better the Yankees will look.
The downside question is which Brad Lidge shows up for the World Series? That may be as important a variable as any. The betting line on that cannot favor Philadelphia.
The Phillies’ lineup presents Sabathia his biggest challenge, although Ryan Howard is neutralized against a strong left-hander. That is a huge difference, but Utley and Victorino hit lefties well. So does Rollins, which means the big man will have his hands full with the Philadelphia hitters.
Home field advantage may be a big factor given that the first two games are played in Philly. If the Yankees get off to a bad start in the first two games, if they don’t win coming out of the chute behind Sabathia, it hurts them more than it does the Phils. It will mean that their weaker starters–not that Andy Pettite and AJ Burnett are chump change–but they will have to step up or put pressure on a bullpen that is suspect.
Pettite has been tough in the playoffs and like Sabathia, he has a better chance against Ryan Howard as a lefty. But Pedro Martinez is the perfect counter to Pettite–the experienced pitcher who has shown in the playoffs that he still has a little bit left when the chips are all in.
The urge is to declare the Yankees the favorite, to follow the money right to the doorstep of the best team that money can buy. But a careful analysis shows there is far less separating these teams than what a mere $100 million will buy.
It really comes down to the Yankee’s depth of talent, Mariano Rivera and their mystique going up against the Phillies’ fight and experience. Philadelphia does not have Matt Stairs this year, but they are still the blue collar team, still the defending champs.
Philadelphia saw this movie last year and they are hungry for the repeat. They have the advantage of starting in their park, and I say that will be enough in what I hope will be a great contest of seven closely-matched, well-played games. But let’s get it on for heaven’s sake. There is snow in the forecast and they don’t play baseball in November do they?
Nice piece, Ted, except for the fact that the Series begins in New York, not Philadelphia. Remember the all-star game result?
That gaffe aside, I must add that despite the Yankees’ regular season record and run-scoring abilities, both the Twins AND Angels could have beaten them had they played up to their usual fundamental abilities. The Yankees did pummel the Angels in Game Four, but otherwise their opponents seemed to beating themselves.
I may be wrong, but the Phillies don’t appear to be bedwetters.
Life is a gaffe. I looked the schedule up this morning and it had Lee starting in Philadelphia. I don’t pay attention to the All-Star Game and won’t start now. C’est la vie.
And I heard several commenters earlier talking about how the Angels were this and that better, just you wait. Shoulda, coulda, woulda. The Yankees were the best team in the AL.
You are certainly wise not to pay attention to the All-Star Game.
Jeff, I am writing from Copenhagen and am eight hours behind. Having thought about it over night, it may be my preference for the Phillies, but I cannot see why something as silly as the All-Star Game trumps the home court advantage that I though accrued from their being defending champs. CBS Sports had the Phillies playing the first game at home and frankly I assumed they got home court. I don’t know if the Chicago Bulls had to defend based on something other than bragging rights from the prior year. Best record from year to year? Maybe, but if the defending champs get to the finals, it seems like they have earned something more than a hand shake.