2010 AL Central Preview

By Justin Murphy and Brad Berreman

In 2009, the Central division of the American League was decided in 163 games for the second straight season. This time, the Minnesota Twins, who had lost to the Chicago White Sox in the same situation in 2008, beat the Detroit Tigers to win the division.

2010 brings about changes in the division. Many teams made notable player acquisitions and one team, the Cleveland Indians, have a new manager in Manny Acta.

Here’s the Seamheads AL Central preview, with the teams listed as we project them in this year’s standings. Minnesota Twins
2009 Result: 87-76, 1st Place

Notable Acquisitions: SS J.J. Hardy, DH Jim Thome, 2B Orlando Hudson, RP Clay Condrey, OF Jacques Jones

Notable Departures: SS Orlando Cabrera, 3B Joe Crede, OF Carlos Gomez, P Boof Bonser, C Mike Redmond

Pitching and Defense: Last season, the Twins were second in the A.L. in K/BB, but still ended up with a below-average 4.50 staff ERA, thanks in large part to 185 dingers against. The rotation will be largely the same this season, with Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano in the top four spots. Francisco Liriano is trying to build on impressive winter league numbers to grab the fifth rotation spot; as usual, he’s a huge X-factor for the team.

There is also the matter of filling the gaping hole created by Joe Nathan’s season-ending elbow injury. Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain will rotate in that spot until someone catches Gardenhire’s fancy. Pat Neshek’s return from his own trip to Tommy John-land should be a boon, and the spillover from the battle for the fifth rotation spot should equate to a solid middle-innings corps.

The outfield defense took a hit with the departure of Gomez. Not only does Denard Span have a lot of ground to cover in center, but neither Michael Cuddyer nor Delmon Young are good defenders. The infield got a serious upgrade in second baseman Orlando Hudson, and the hodgepodge of options for the third base job and/or utility spot (Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Luke Hughes, Danny Valencia) will give Ron Gardenhire the flexibility to find a good combination.

Offense: In broad strokes, the Twins will be fine at the plate if lefty sluggers Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel repeat their 2009 lines. Span is one of the premier lead-off men in the game, and Hudson figures to slide into the two-hole. If Young cuts down on the strikeouts and hits 15-20 home runs, and if Hardy rediscovers his pre-2009 form, the offense could move from good to great. Thome is a fearsome presence off the bench, and it will be interesting to see how long of a leash the Twins give to Young before benching him, putting Kubel into the outfield and making Thome the everyday DH.

Player to Watch: Starting pitcher Nick Blackburn earned a reputation as a big-game pitcher in the last two seasons, and was rewarded for it with a four-year, $18 million extension this spring. For all that, though, he’s 22-24 in his career and has struck out only 4.4 batters a game while letting balls out of the park at a troubling rate. If he keeps finding ways to get through lineups without the strikeout, he’ll provide some needed stability in the rotation. If not, the Twins will have to scramble to fill those innings.

2010 Outlook: The Twins will move into their new stadium, Target Field, this season and will have high expectations. The payroll increased by almost a third and all the pieces are in place. Some relatively big-ticket off-season acquisitions give this Twins team the most potential they’ve had in years.

Though the team did a good job papering over Nathan’s injury by announcing Mauer’s extension on the same day, there’s no question the back of the bullpen is a serious concern. No one will fill Nathan’s shoes, but the offense, starters and middle-inning men are expected to pick up some slack in the first eight innings.

Predicted Order of Finish: Winning the Central has become almost a given in Minnesota, but this group won’t be satisfied without a deeper run into the playoffs.

Detroit Tigers
2009 Result: 86-77, 2nd Place

Notable Acquisitions: RP Jose Valverde, OF/DH Johnny Damon, SP Max Scherzer, RP Daniel Schlereth, OF Austin Jackson, RP Phil Coke

Notable Departures: OF Curtis Granderson, 2B Placido Polanco, SP Edwin Jackson, RP Fernando Rodney, RP Brandon Lyon, OF/DH Marcus Thames, 1B/DH Aubrey Huff, SP Jarrod Washburn

Pitching and Defense: The trio of Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello at the top of the rotation is an exciting notion in Motown in 2010 and in the years to come. Porcello, the opening-day starter, took his lumps in his rookie season but still managed 14 victories as a 20-year-old. Of course, a young rotation also helps explain why the Tigers were 12th in the A.L. in walks surrendered last year.

Like the Twins, the Tigers have some competition for the final spots in the rotation, and that will shore up the bullpen, especially now that Bobby Seay may miss significant time with an injury. Picking up closer Valverde will also help in the bullpen, which was only the 12th-best in the A.L. last season in WHIP.

Losing Granderson from center field is a real blow, but the Tigers think Jackson can fill his shoes, and they had better be right, because Damon and Magglio Ordonez won’t be offering much help in the corners. Sizemore, on the other hand, will have a hard row to hoe in replacing Polanco’s 11.4 UZR at second base, especially coming off ankle surgery. Brandon Inge is above-average at third, although he too went under the knife in the off-season.

Offense: Last year’s Tigers were slightly below average at the plate, and Ordonez, Guillen and Inge aren’t getting any younger. Miguel Cabrera will again be asked to provide the lion’s share of the pop, and the Tigers hope that Damon and Jackson will be on base when he does.

Player to Watch: Gerald Laird is a fine defensive catcher, but manager Jim Leyland has asked him to work on his performance with the stick. He hit .225 last season; if he can add even thirty percentage points to that, it would buoy an aging offense.

2010 Outlook: The Tigers got younger and more exciting in the off-season, but that doesn’t necessarily equate to more wins in 2010. General manager Dave Dombrowski has acknowledged that he’s building for 2010 and beyond, with an emphasis on the beyond.
Still, don’t write the Tigers off yet. They rode veteran leadership to a one-game playoff last year, and though those veterans are getting longer in the tooth, Porcello et al. got meaningful experience. If the graybeards have another year left in them and the young guns develop according to plan, Detroit could make things interesting in the Central.

Predicted Order of Finish: They probably don’t have the pop to compete with Minnesota, but it’s not safe to write them off.

Chicago White Sox
2009 Result: 79-83, 3rd Place

Notable Acquisitions: IF/OF Mark Teahen, OF Juan Pierre, OF/DH Andruw Jones, RP J.J. Putz, SS Omar Vizquel

Notable Departures: OF Jermaine Dye, 2B Chris Getz, 3B Josh Fields, OF Scott Podsednik, RP Octavio Dotel, OF Dewayne Wise

Pitching/Defense: With Jake Peavy ready to pitch a full season, the Sox have a legitimate ace and a fair number two in Mark Buehrle. John Danks and Gavin Floyd have both progressed steadily over the last two seasons. This staff allowed the second fewest runs in the American League last year and could be better in 2010, unless Buehrle shows his age. The bullpen is anchored by Bobby Jenks, and has a nice mix of youth and experience, especially if and when 23-year-old Daniel Hudson moves up from Charlotte.

The Sox have a nifty double play combo in Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham, with old hand Omar Vizquel ready to spell them. The outfield is a different story. Alex Rios is, to put it charitably, not a center fielder, and Carlos Quentin doesn’t figure to pick up much of the slack in right. AJ Pierzynski caught just 23 percent of would-be base stealers.

Offense: Despite the departures of veteran boppers Dye and Jim Thome, the lineup on the South Side is still rather hoary. Jones, the new DH, hit .214 last season and will be 33 in 2010. Teahen has been abominable in spring training, and Pierzynski and Paul Konerko are not their 2005 selves. The only real bright spots offensively are Quentin, who missed over a third of last season with a foot injury, and Beckham.

Player to Watch: Since his full-season debut in 2001, Buehrle has thrown at least 200 innings every year for the White Sox, but he’s turning 31 in 2010. Another strong campaign from him could make the rotation an elite one, something the Sox will need to stay afloat with sub-standard defense and aging hitters.

2010 Outlook: The pitching is good, and could very well be great, depending on the contributions of Putz, Buehrle and Hudson. Ramirez and Beckham are likely to produce a fair amount of excitement up the middle, and skipper Ozzie Guillen will trot out his ever-entertaining antics. You’d swear a bilingual blue streak, too, if you had Alex Rios in center field.

If the White Sox have a master plan, it’s not plain to see. After winning 79 games in 2009, they added a few veterans to the mix but generally kept a core intact. Quentin and Beckham are fine players, and Ramirez is still coming into his own, but the roster is largely populated by men with no business on a winning club. The team seems to be treading water, and as such will likely find itself a comfortable middle-of-the-pack spot in the division.

Predicted Order of Finish: Barring renaissance seasons from Konerko and company, the White Sox seem directionless and shouldn’t threaten the top teams in the division.

Kansas City Royals
2009 Result: 65-97, Tied for 4th Place

Notable Acquisitions: OF Rick Ankiel, OF Scott Podsednik, 2B Chris Getz, 3B Josh Fields, C Jason Kendall

Notable Departures: IF/OF Mark Teahen, C Miguel Olivo, C John Buck, OF Coco Crisp, 1B/DH Mike Jacobs

Pitching/Defense: For all their problems, the Royals do have the best pitcher in the American League in reigning Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. Even with his 229 innings, though, they still were third-worst in the league in runs allowed. Promising rotation-mates Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar have thus far thwarted prognosticators, but the talent is there, if nothing else. Joakim Soria assumes the mantle of best closer in the division with Nathan’s injury—he was close, anyway—but the ugly setup crew of Kyle Farnsworth, Jamey Wright and Juan Cruz won’t have an easy time in getting the ball to him.

Nor will the pitchers have much support behind them; Kansas City offers one of the worst fielding displays in the majors. Last season, David DeJesus and Crisp were the only two players with decent UZR numbers, and Crisp is gone, replaced by Ankiel. Yuniesky Betancourt is famously horrific with the glove, and Kendall got burglarized at an 80 percent clip last season, when he was only 35 years old.

Offense: The darlings of the Royals offense are youngsters Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, both of whom have proven they can swat, at least for stretches. Butler, 23 years old, had a .314/.385/.540 line in the second half after .290/.340/.449 before the All-Star break. Gordon played in only 49 games last season due to hip surgery, and will miss at least a few games this April after breaking his thumb in early March. Last year, the Royals were 13th in the A.L. in scoring.

Player to Watch: The most maddening aspect of Jose Guillen’s contract—and there are many such aspects—is that it keeps Kila Ka’aihue mired in Omaha despite abundant proof that he’s ready to contribute in the big leagues. His triple-slash numbers were down in 2009, but he still got on base 39 percent of the time and walked more times (102) than he struck out (85). In 2008, between Double-A and Triple-A, he swatted .314/.456/.628. Were it not for Guillen, Trey Hillman could rotate Ka’aihue and Butler between first base and DH. As it is, he probably spends another year stewing in Nebraska.

2010 Outlook: Here’s a fine mess. Grienke leads an otherwise uneven pitching staff. Soria is one of the best closers in the game, but isn’t likely to get many opportunities. The lineup will get a significant boost if Gordon and Butler reach their potential.

Unlike basement-mate Cleveland, the Royals don’t have much as far as prospects in the pipeline, and their off-season acquisitions don’t point to the clear rebuilding plan the team so obviously needs. All in all, signs point to another long summer in K.C.

Projected Order of Finish: If the bats come out and the young pitchers emerge, the Royals could challenge Chicago for third place. Of course, that’s what they always say.

Cleveland Indians
2009 Result: 67-95, Tied for 4th Place

Notable Acquisitions: Manager Manny Acta, 1B Russell Branyan, OF Austin Kearns, C Mike Redmond

Notable Departures: Manager Eric Wedge, C Kelly Shoppach, IF Jamey Carroll

Pitching/Defense: Last year, the staff ranked second-to-last in the A.L. in runs allowed, and that with a half season’s contribution from Lee. Now that the ace gone, Fausto Carmona has been crowned the number one on the merits of his 2007 success; no matter that he walked five men per nine innings last year on his way to a 6.32 ERA. Jake Westbrook is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Justin Masterton is working on a conversion from the bullpen. Among the relievers, closer Kerry Wood is out for two months with shoulder soreness. In short, the pitching will not be good.

The Indians’ outfield of Matt LaPorta, Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo looks impressive enough on paper, but the fact is that none of those three had a positive UZR in 2009. Asdrubal Cabrera and Luis Valbuena were among the worst defensive middle infielders in the game last season.

Offense: LaPorta, Choo and Travis Hafner will be counted on for most of the power in the lineup, though none of them slugged .500 last season and only Choo hit 20 home runs. Jhonny Peralta is always an X-factor, but if he starts the season well, the Tribe will likely put him on the trading block and bide their time until Lonnie Chisenhall is ready.

Sizemore had his lowest batting average since 2004 last season, due in large part to elbow problems that have since been corrected. He’ll hit in the two-spot this year, with Cabrera and his .361 OBP leading off.

Player to Watch: The big question in Cleveland is when Michael Brantley will make his first appearance of the season. Acquired in the C.C. Sabathia trade, Brantley played well in spring training before rolling his ankle. The idea in the organization is to have LaPorta in left, Russell Branyan at first and Brantley in Triple-A to start the season, but Branyan’s recurring back pain could throw a wrench into that. In what the Tribe bills as a rebuilding season, Brantley’s development could be the best reason to tune in.

2010 Outlook: 2010 will be GM Mark Shapiro’s last season in that post, as he will be promoted to team president after the season and current assistant GM Chris Antonetti will take Shapiro’s position as executive vice president and general manager. There is also a shakeup in the on-field management, with former Nationals skipper Manny Acta taking the reins from Eric Wedge.

The pitching is a problem, and Wood’s absence from the bullpen only exacerbates it. The idea is to let LaPorta, Brantley and catcher Lou Marson develop while the team muddles along.

Predicted Order of Finish: The Indians’ best case scenario is for Peralta, Westbrook and Wood to play well enough to bring back a decent haul on the trading block.