September 17, 2014

2013 Vote for the Hall – the Writers Got It (Mostly) Right

January 9, 2013 by · 2 Comments 

For the eighth time since the Hall of Fame elections started and for the first time since 1996, no player has been elected to the Hall of Fame.

Is this a bad thing?  Not necessarily.  Better to elect no one than to elect the wrong person (think Jim Rice).

According to the CAWS Career Gauge, there were exactly ten players on the 2013 ballot who actually did have Hall of Fame numbers during their careers.  Here they are in alphabetical order:

Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell

Of course, Bonds, Clemens, McGwire and Palmeiro all face the “steroids stain.”  But I thought Bagwell, Biggio and Piazza each had a chance at election this time.

There will probably be all sorts of outcry about the BBWAA not electing anyone but I do think that these are some of the things the writers did get right:

  1. No one on the ballot for the first time got elected.  I was rooting for Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza – but are they really deserving of first-ballot election?  Biggio, maybe – but Piazza, not really.
  2. Bonds and Clemens got less than 40% of the vote.  This means that they join McGwire and Palmeiro as players who have HOF numbers but will NEVER be elected by the BBWAA.
  3. Biggio, Piazza, Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines all got more than 50% of the vote.  This means that each of these players will be elected in the next few years – which they should be since they have HOF numbers.
  4. Jack Morris did not make it again.  Morris has one year of eligibility left and I do not think he will make it.  The CAWS Gauge suggests that he does NOT have HOF numbers.  Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine come onto the ballot in 2014 – and both DO HAVE HOF numbers.  Maddux could be a first-ballot choice.
  5. Sammy Sosa got less than 15% of the vote.  Forget the steroids question – according to the CAWS Gauge, Sosa does NOT have HOF numbers.  He is the only player with 500 home runs who does NOT have HOF numbers.
  6. Curt Schilling got less than 40% of the vote.  Like Jack Morris, Schilling does NOT have HOF numbers.  Will he ever get the votes?  Who knows?  But with Maddux and Glavine coming along next year, his chances are not good.

Thanks for your time.

Mike Hoban
Professor Emeritus – City U of NY
Author of DEFINING GREATNESS: A Hall of Fame Handbook
http://booklocker.com/books/6117.html

 

 

Comments

2 Responses to “2013 Vote for the Hall – the Writers Got It (Mostly) Right”
  1. Matt Mitchell says:

    Your model holds up well for the current climate. But the voters confirming the assumptions of your model doesn’t mean they got it “right”.

  2. MICHAEL HOBAN says:

    Matt,

    Thanks for the comment.

    I confess that I am somewhat confused by what you mean by my “model.” If you are referring to the CAWS Gauge, it says that Bonds and Clemens are two of the best players to ever play the game. Of course, my own view (which seems to correspond to that of the writers) is that cheaters have no place in the Hall of Fame – regardless of their numbers. So, I do think the voters are “right.” Of course, that is just my opinion.

    Mike Hoban

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