Spring Statistics and How Far Can the Washington Bullpen Travel

Theo Epstein recently said he has never broken camp with a rookie in the starting lineup and to prove his point sent Kris Bryant packing. Spring is is not a good time to be a young major league hopeful. The time with the major league club more often than not ends in a quick trip back to the minor league camp. Neither is it a good time to be an aging veteran, hoping that the ax doesn’t fall. At this time of year, many dreams come to an end as General Managers trim their rosters and sweep clean the dreams that have held on since February.

The Washington Nationals would love to have the problems that Epstein has. Javier Baez and Bryant would likely already have their tickets punched for Opening Day if they were in a Washington uniform as the team looks for ways to fill behind its many injured starters. Long gone are the days of working Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper into the starting lineup. Though outfielder Michael Taylor is a fine prospect, he could probably stand a bit more seasoning in Syracuse. But the Nationals will start the season with him in center field because of Denard Span’s injury. It is currently all hands on deck for the Nats.

The only real certainty is the starting rotation. They may have to pitch long into games this season because there is no rubber-armed Tyler Clippard waiting in the wings any more. No, this season the Washington bullpen is the source of more questions than answers. GM Rizzo undertook a make over of his relief corps from a year ago, trading Ross Detwiler, Jerry Blevins and Tyler Clippard and allowing Raphael Soriano to leave under his own steam. Re-shaping the 2015 bullpen has been a work that has largely flown under the radar, but its success may determine how deep into the 2015 season Washington will travel.

Clippard was the first to go. He has been the best reliever Washington has had over the past seven seasons, yet Rizzo dispatched him to Oakland for middle infielder, Yunel Escobar. Ross Detwiler has never fulfilled his promise as the sixth overall pick in the draft in 2007. But all four departed bullpen pitchers threw over 250 innings last season and figuring out who fills in for them is a big question going forward.

A recent Washington Post article opined that one reason Rizzo has not been aggressive in signing Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg to long term contracts is the shelf life of Tommy John surgery, generally estimated at between 7 and 8 years. He may have felt that there are not many innings left in Tyler Clippard’s arm either. Clippard has averaged almost 75 innings over the past six seasons and betting that he has a large reserve left in the tank may not make sense. But where is Rizzo putting his chips?

He brought in Casey Janssen to replace Clippard and while the former Toronto closer has not logged many innings over the years, he is the one on the shelf this spring, while Clippard is being looked at to close for the Athletics while Sean Doolittle mends. Tanner Roark was displaced as a starter when Rizzo signed Max Scherzer and Roark looked to become a big part of the 2015 bullpen. It all looked like it made sense until everyone started getting hurt.

Jerry Blevins will not be part of the answer, who was traded yesterday to the Mets.  Getting Matt den Dekker from New York for Blevins was a twofer. Blevins has been disappointing as a lefty reliever, posting a 4.87 ERA in 2014 and struggling this spring to prove he can do better. Den Dekker is relatively young–27–and has the potential to play all three outfield spots. It could be a sign that Mike Rizzo is going young with his final cuts and the bullpen would benefit from some new blood as much as the outfield.

Matt Thornton is 38 years old and his continued effectiveness flies in the face of all the unspoken rules of pitcher viability that Mike Rizzo may believe. His role as the left specialist for the Nationals is one of the most secure. Craig Stammen has been the long man for the past three seasons and his durability has been part of Washington’s excellence over that period. His pay check is also reasonably certain. But there are no other veterans available. Aaron Barrett and Blake Treinen both saw their first stints in Washington last season and are the best bets to join the others. Both has pitched well this spring.

Treinen was considered a long shot to go north when pitchers and catchers reported more than a month ago. But he can fill Stammen’s role as long man or pitch in the late innings. He may have the stuff to close and if Storen falters, Treinen may get a chance to audition on the fly. Barrett would be the other possibility and he will likely pitch in the late innings in 2015 regardless. He has been groomed as a closer since he was drafted out of Ole Miss in 2010. He logged 40 innings for the Nationals in 2014 to an ERA of 2.66.

Storen, Thornton, Roark, Stammen, Barrett and Treinin. Not much veteran presence there and there may be more slots to fill than meets the eye. Casey Janssen was supposed to be the seventh name, but he has shoulder soreness and while the injury is not thought serious, he will start the season on the disabled list. Tanner Roark was supposed to be part of the answer, but he has been absolutely awful this spring. Is he trying new pitches or is there real reason for worry?

What direction does Rizzo take? Does he go with the experienced guys who aren’t doing much to earn a job in the spring or with the young guys who are working hard to made a case that they belong. The general consensus is that Xavier Cedeno will be the second lefty specialist out of the pen. Cedeno has never quite gotten the job done in the majors and has had an underwhelming showcase this Spring, but he has several years in the Majors. He has “experience.”

If Rizzo is looking for guys who have proven they want it, there are two dark horse candidates that have earned consideration. Matt Grace has never pitched in the Majors, but his 2014 season at Syracuse was outstanding. A lefty, he threw 77 innings to a 1.17 ERA and saved three games. He has beat out Cedeno and is on the 40 man roster so his chances are within the realm of possibility.

The candidate from out beyond Pluto is Raphael Martin. Plucked from the Mexican League in 2010, Martin was excellent in his first two seasons for the Harrisburg Senators, earning 13 saves and pitching to an ERA of 1.77, but arm problems limited him until the past two seasons where he has re-established his credentials. In 2014 he finished with Syracuse, pitching to a 0.80 ERA and picking up ten saves in the bargain. Tanner Roark should appreciate just how precarious it all is. He came out of nowhere in 2013 and has been excellent ever since. But things go south just as quickly and the makeup of the Washington bullpen, which changed substantially last season, will likely to do so again in 2015. The Kansas City Royals demonstrated how far an excellent bullpen can take a team. Does Washington have anything to compete at that level and who will emerge if they do? It is about time to find out.