Rating the 2016 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares

One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame.  This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 6, 2016.

Many systems exist for evaluating player performance.  One such system, the Win Shares method, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching.  James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer.  However, future standards may be different.  Players with 300-350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame.  In the future, they more often will not.”

The 2016 class of Hall of Fame candidates consists of 17 holdovers and 15 players eligible for the first time.   Twelve holdovers have over 300 Win Shares, Barry Bonds with 661, Gary Sheffield 430, Roger Clemens 421, Tim Raines 390, Jeff Bagwell 387, Mark McGwire 342, Fred McGriff 326, Alan Trammell 318, Sammy Sosa 311, Mike Piazza 309, Larry Walker 307 and Edgar Martinez 305.  Two newcomers have over 300 Win Shares, Ken Griffey Jr. 403 and Jim Edmonds 301.

In 2015, four players received the necessary 75% of the vote for election by the Baseball Writers of America (BBWAA).   The 2015 ballot included 17 newcomers and 17 returning candidates.  Three newcomers, Randy Johnson (97.3%), Pedro Martinez (91.1%) and John Smoltz (82.9%) were elected on the first ballot.  Only two others, Gary Sheffield (11.7%) and Nomar Garciaparra (5.5%) received the necessary 5% of the votes required to remain on the ballot.

With the strong incoming class last year, only Craig Biggio (82.7%) among the holdovers was elected.   The 2016 class is not as strong which should allow some holdovers to move up.  The only holdovers with over 50% of the vote in 2015 were Mike Piazza (62.2%), Jeff Bagwell (55.7%) and Tim Raines (55.0%).

Several players on the ballot have the numbers to be elected but remain tainted with the steroid cloud.  Many voters are likely to wait until more is known about the extent of steroid usage before giving them a pass.  This, along with the number of strong newcomers on the ballot the last two years has resulted in the ballot becoming quite crowded.  A total of 571 ballots were submitted last year and each voter could vote for up to 10 players.  The number of ballots will be reduced this year as writers that have not actively covered the sport for the past ten years will no longer be able to vote. It will be interesting to see how this will impact the results.  Over the years, voters have typically voted for 5 or 6 candidates but last year they voted for an average of 8.4.  This increase is likely to continue since there are at least 20 candidates on the ballot for which a reasonable case can be made for induction.

The Hall has made a significant change in the voting for this year.  Players are now kept on the ballot for 10 years rather than 15 years.  Players that had already been on the ballot for 10 or more years stay on for 15 but those with less than 10 years will be removed after their 10^th year. Alan Trammell is in his last year in 2016 (15^th) as is Mark McGwire (10^th).  Lee Smith (14^th) and Tim Raines (9^th) are in their next to last years on the ballot.

Earlier this year, the Pre-Integration Era Committee consisting of a panel of Hall of Fame players, sportswriters and baseball executives voted on a group of ten players and executives for induction.  None received 75% of the votes from the 16-member Committee.

Following is a list of Win Shares for the 32 players on the ballot.  Players on the ballot for the first time are shown in bold.  Voting results for 2014 and 2015 are shown for the holdovers:

 

Player	Win Shares	2015 Vote	2015 Percent	2014 Vote	2014 Percent
Barry Bonds	661	202	36.8	198	34.7
Gary Sheffield	430	64	11.7
Roger Clemens	421	206	37.5	202	35.4
Ken Griffey, Jr.	403
Tim Raines	390	302	55.0	263	46.1
Jeff Bagwell	387	306	55.7	310	54.3
Mark McGwire	342	55	10.0	63	11.0
Jeff Kent	338	77	14.0	87	15.2
Fred McGriff	326	118	20.7	67	11.7
Alan Trammel	318	138	25.1	119	20.8
Sammy Sosa	311	36	6.6	41	7.2
Mike Piazza	309	384	69.9	355	62.2
Larry Walker	307	65	11.8	53	10.2
Edgar Martinez	305	148	27.0	144	25.2
Jim Edmonds	301
Mike Mussina	270	135	24.6	116	20.3
Jason Kendall	245
Garrett Anderson	230
Curt Schilling	227	215	39.2	167	29.2
Nomar Garciaparra	219	30	5.5
Luis Castillo	201
Lee Smith	198	166	30.2	171	29.9
Troy Glaus	189
Trevor Hoffman	188
Mark Grudzielanek	186
Mike Lowell	185
Billy Wagner	182
Randy Winn	171
Brad Ausmus	169
Mike Sweeney	162
Mike Hampton	144
David Eckstein	143

 

The 26 players elected by the Baseball Writers since 2000 have averaged 356 Win Shares, a figure exceeded by six players on this year’s ballot.

Player	Year	Win Shares
Dave Winfield	2001	415
Kirby Puckett	2001	281
Ozzie Smith	2002	325
Gary Carter	2003	337
Eddie Murray	2003	437
Paul Molitor	2004	414
Dennis Eckersley	2004	301
Wade Boggs	2005	394
Ryne Sandberg	2005	346
Bruce Sutter	2006	168
Cal Ripken	2007	427
Tony Gwynn	2007	398
Goose Gossage	2008	223
Rickey Henderson	2009	535
Jim Rice	2009	282
Andre Dawson	2010	340
Roberto Alomar	2011	375
Bert Blyleven	2011	339
Barry Larkin	2012	347
Frank Thomas	2014	405
Greg Maddux	2014	398
Tom Glavine	2014	314
Craig Biggio	2015	411
Randy Johnson	2015	326
John Smoltz	2015	289
Pedro Martinez	2015	256

 

Win Shares are fundamentally a quantitative measure of a player’s accomplishments.  A measure of the quality of a player’s offensive performance is OPS+ which compares his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) adjusted for park effects and era with the league average during his career.  An OPS+ of 120 suggests that his performance is 20% better than that of a league average player.  A similar approach (ERA+) can be used to compare a pitcher’s ERA against the league average during his career.

Batters	OPS+	Pitchers	ERA+
Barry Bonds	182	Roger Clemens	143
Mark McGwire	163	Curt Schilling	127
Jeff Bagwell	149	Mike Mussina	123
Edgar Martinez	147	Mike Hampton	107
Mike Piazza	143
Larry Walker	141
Gary Sheffield	140	Relief Pitchers
Ken Griffey, Jr.	136	Billy Wagner	187
Fred McGriff	134	Trevor Hoffman	141
Jim Edmonds	132	Lee Smith	132
Sammy Sosa	128
Nomar Garciaparra	124
Tim Raines	123
Jeff Kent	123
Troy Glaus	119
Mike Sweeney	118
Alan Trammell	110
Mike Lowell	108
Garrett Anderson	102
Randy Winn	99
Jason Kendall	95
Luis Castillo	92
Mark Grudzielanek	90
David Eckstein	87
Brad Ausmus	75

 

The Win Shares system favors players with long productive careers like Sheffield and Raines, although it appears to under-rate pitchers, while OPS+ rewards strong offensive players who had shorter, more dominant careers like Edgar Martinez and McGwire.  ERA+ favors relief pitchers since their ERAs are generally lower because they are not charged with runs scored by inherited runners.

Conclusions:

1. Three players will be elected in 2016, Ken Griffey, Jr., Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell.
2. Trammell and McGwire will fail to win election in their final year on the BBWAA ballot.
3. Raines will gain significant support but will not receive enough votes for induction. However, he should be in a good position for election next year.
4. Edmonds, Wagner and Hoffman should receive enough votes to remain on the ballot.
5. There will not be a groundswell of support for Randy Winn, Luis Castillo, Mark   Grudzielanek, Jason Kendall, David Eckstein and Brad Ausmus, among others.
6. If I had a ballot, I would cast votes for Griffey, Jr., Piazza, Bagwell, Raines, Schilling, Trammell, McGriff, Kent, Wagner and Mussina.