Baseball Gauge Power Rankings

I’ve recently added a Power Rankings chart to the front page. The concept is quite simple but there is a lot that goes into the formula.

First off, I look at 3 different time periods and assign different weights for each.

1. Entire season (50% weight)
2. Last 25 games (33% weight)
3. Last 10 games (16.7% weight)

The “Last 10 games” actually have more impact on the final number than just 1/6th since the last 10 games are included in both the last 25 and entire season.

Four numbers go into each of the 3 time periods….

1. Team’s Winning Percentage
2. Team’s Pythagorean Winning Percentage
3. The average Winning Percentage of their opponents
4. The average Pythagorean Winning Percentage of their opponents

I then simply just find the average of these 4 stats for each of the 3 different time periods.

Let’s say a team goes 8-2 and in their last 10 games, while scoring 45 runs and allowing 45 (Pythagorean win % would be .500). Their opponents over the past 10 games have an average winning percentage of .463 and an average Pythagorean winning percentage of .455. Combining these 4 numbers would give them a .5545 rating over the past 10 games. Even though they won 80% of their games, they didn’t outscore their opponents and their schedule was weak, so their rating is not as high.

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One Response to Baseball Gauge Power Rankings

  1. Robert Bayer says:

    Hey Dan .. interesting idea about giving greater weight to the final games of the season .. Intunitively this does make sense (though extra research required) as you figure how you finish prior to post season is a measure of just how good you are as a team and I think MLB fans (and players!) tend to remember a season more by what happened at the end anyway .. So for simiar reasons, I did a similar thing where I just gave extra value to the post-season games .. which I am not sure if you count in your calculations .. I think I also did an era rating where I counted exta value if a team won titles before or after and factored in how good those teams were in terms of winning percentage and in terms of having had themselves won World Series championships .. Just throwing these ideas out there .. Like what you are suggesting ..

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