Dice-K and the Vanishing Strike Zone

Now that the Red Sox have easily dispatched the Angels and we’re all waiting breathlessly for the outcome of the Indians/Yankees series, it’s time to vent my frustration on Daisuke “Dice-K” Matsuzaka and his performance, or lack thereof, in Game 2 of the ALDS (I’ll vent on Eric Gagne another day). Going into the game I was nervous because of Matsuzaka’s recent record of futility—he had a 5.19 ERA after the All-Star break, his K/BB ratio went from 3.24 in the first half to 1.86 in the second half, and he sported a 7.62 ERA in September. Needless to say I had reason to be on edge as he allowed Los Angeles (or is it Anaheim? Can’t they just go back to being the California Angels, for Christ’s sake?) three runs on seven hits and three walks in only 4 2/3 innings. Anyone who knows me knows that I was yelling at my big screen T.V. most of the game and probably scaring the hell out of my neighbors as I’m wont to do during big games (or inconsequential games or days that end in “y”).

Things got so bad that I left the house to go to the store with my wife (something I typically don’t do during big games) to keep my head from exploding. As it turns out, going to the store was the best thing I could have done. I bought a cheap bottle of red wine hoping it would soothe my pain, but instead it made a joyous celebration even merrier (and a bit foggier) when Manny Ramirez launched a Francisco Rodriguez “cripple” into space in the bottom of the ninth inning to win the tightly contested game. Had I had my wits about me (and a blood/alcohol level below the legal limit), I would have gone out for another bottle. Hell I should have bought two in the first place.

Part of Matsuzaka’s problem is that he followed Josh Beckett’s brilliant Game 1 performance in which he shut out the Angels on four hits, struck out eight batters while walking none, and was nearly perfect with his pitches over the final seven innings. Most of Matsuzaka’s problem is that he’s afraid to throw strikes (or so it appears). Beckett threw first pitch strikes to 25 of the 31 batters he faced (81%), and only twice over the last seven innings did he start a batter off with a ball. Overall he threw 77% of his pitches for strikes. Matsuzaka threw first pitch strikes to 62% of the batters he faced and 65% of his total pitches were strikes, which is a hair above his season average. Beckett’s performance was masterful and a joy to watch. Watching Matsuzaka pitch borders on torture at worst (yes that’s too strong a word, but I’m using it anyway) and is maddeningly frustrating at best.

To make matters worse (for Matsuzaka, not Red Sox fans), Curt Schilling threw a workman-like and efficient seven innings in Game 3, shutting out the Angels for seven innings on six hits and walk. Schilling threw first pitch strikes 63% of the time, which is only a percentage point better than Dice-K, but what made Schilling’s performance almost as impressive as Beckett’s and much better than Matsuzaka’s is what he did with the rest of his pitches. Of the three, Schilling threw a higher percentage of strikes (71%) with his remaining pitches than either of the other two. Beckett threw 70% of his remaining pitches for strikes. You can guess who finished third (his name rhymes with Schmatsuzaka). That’s right Dice-K tossed only 58% of his remaining pitches for strikes. So while Schilling and Beckett kept coming after hitters, Matsuzaka was doing what he’s been doing for most of the second half of the season—being what former A.L. Cy Young Award winner and current broadcaster, Steve Stone, called a “power nibbler.”

To be fair to Matsuzaka, Beckett’s numbers were well above his norms this season. The guy’s been lights out all year and as far as I’m concerned he’s this year’s A.L. Cy Young Award winner, despite what ESPN’s Cy Young predictor says. But he’s not normally that dominant. Heck, last Wednesday’s performance was by far his best outing of the year. Schilling was also better than normal, although he threw fewer first pitch strikes than he typically does. But he made up for that by throwing more second, third, fourth (and so on) pitch strikes than normal.

Matsuzaka had the nearly impossible task of following Beckett and preceding Schilling, two of the best postseason pitchers of this generation. He was damned from the start. And he looked it. But he was actually slightly better in Game 2 than he’s been throughout the season, at least in terms of strike percentage and first strike percentage. But he couldn’t find the strike zone with a lot of the rest of his pitches and the perception remains that he’s afraid to throw strikes. In fact, his strike percentage dropped almost every month this season, before rebounding in September:

And his second half strike percentage is decidedly lower than it was before the All-Star break:

Now he has the unenviable task of facing either the Indians or Yankees in the ALCS (Cleveland is ahead 4-0 in the second inning as of this writing), both of whom are much more patient at the plate than the Angels, who ranked ninth in the league in free passes (the Yankees ranked third in the A.L. in walks while Cleveland ranked fourth). Meanwhile both Colorado and Arizona ranked among the upper half of the N.L. in walks drawn, with the Rockies finishing second only to the Phillies. In other words it’s not going to get any easier for Matsuzaka as the post season moves along.

Ironically what Dice-K needs less of is the same thing he needs more of—BALLS. And if he doesn’t get a pair soon, I have a feeling I’ll need more wine.