Before moving on to Part III, there’s a clarification I need to make regarding Part II.

In addition to factoring in the difference in league parks between any two leagues when doing MLE’s, you must also factor in the difference between league SCORING environments. In the previous Part II, I ‘plugged’ a 7% difference into the formula and called it the park difference. In reality, the 7% difference is actually the ‘context’ difference - a combination of park differences AND league scoring differences. Since we can calculate the league scoring difference, we really should use it, and plug ONLY the park difference.

In terms of the final results, it won’t change anything, but in terms of understanding how to ‘properly’ do MLE’s, not just for Japanese League players but for AAA, or Negro Leagues, etc., and for understanding the interaction of parks, leagues, etc. it’s important to understand how this works.

Japanese league scoring historically is less than MLB. Japanese League managers traditionally have used more one run, ‘small ball’ strategies, and the league scoring environments definitely reflect this. For the period 1962 – 2007, NPB scoring per game was 94% of MLB scoring per game.

I’ll walk thru complete examples for a hypothetical batter and pitcher again, this time doing it completely the ‘right’ way:

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According to the NEWS HOF Gauge (based on win shares), at the end of the 2006 season, only 82 position players had established a NEWS score of 280 (clear HOF numbers). In the 2007 season, Chipper Jones and Jim Thome joined this elite group. Jones is now the #79 best position player of the 20^th century and the #7 best third baseman. Thome becomes the #82 best position player and #12 best first baseman.

This means that during the 2007 season, there were a total of ten active position players who had already established HOF numbers. Here are those players in order. The number before the player’s name is his rank against all position players of the century and the number following is his NEWS score.

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In 2002, Bill James published his book called WIN SHARES in which he introduced a new system that was the product of more than twenty-five years of research. And it is this system that I am convinced is far better than any other that has been developed for comparing players. The method is so revolutionary that I believe that it is fair to say that FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, we are able to validly look at and compare 20^th century players (including hitting and fielding and pitching) no matter when they played or who they played for. The key to the value of Win Shares is that it tells us how valuable a player was to his team each season. And, of course, a player’s value to his team is what the game is all about.

But if we want to use Win Shares in order to compare players’ careers, then it is necessary to devise a way to do it other than to simply look at the total number of Win Shares accumulated. That is why I have developed the NEWS Hall of Fame Gauge – based on Win Shares. Consider the following example.

Arky Vaughan and Brooks Robinson

Arky Vaughan and Brooks Robinson were both outstanding infielders who are in the Hall of Fame. Vaughan is considered by many as one of the top three shortstops of the 20^th century. And Robinson is generally regarded as the best fielding third baseman of all time. The numbers that they accumulated during their careers illustrate rather well what the NEWS Gauge is designed to demonstrate. Both of these players accumulated 356 win shares during their careers. But that does not mean that their careers were similar in any way. Vaughan played for fourteen seasons and Robinson for twenty-three. Arky’s core value (CV) was 308 meaning that he averaged almost 31 win shares for his ten best seasons – a truly great performance. Brooks’ CV was 247 indicating that he averaged almost 25 win shares for his ten best – a very good career but not nearly as good as Vaughan. Arky’s NEWS score of 320 places him among the top 35 position players of the 20^th century. Brooks’ score of 274 is respectable (and places him among the top 100 position players of the century) but it cannot compare to Vaughan’s 320.

For more information, check out the material in BASEBALL’S BEST: The TRUE Hall of Famers on this site.

As was mentioned in Part I, over 600 (664 by my count) players have played in MLB and NPB. Out of that 664, 32 of those have been native born Japanese players. If we break out the numbers by batters and pitchers, we get:

Japanese Pitchers to MLB - 23
Japanese Position Players to MLB - 9
Foreign Pitchers to NPB - 213
Foreign Position Players to NPB - 419

We have a good sample size of players moving to NPB, but rather limited data for players moving from NPB to MLB, especially for position players. Several studies have been done to estimate the difference in ‘quality’ between the two leagues, such as:

http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright19.html
and

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1330

and also William McNeil, in his books “Baseball’s Other All-Stars” and “The King of Swat”. All seem to reach the same general conclusions:

1. NPB baseball quality is better than AAA baseball, but less than MLB.
2. Home Runs for batters going from MLB to NPB increase dramatically, and decrease dramatically for batters going from NPB to MLB.

While I plan to have a ‘super-duper’ study completed within the year on NPB quality that will also use U.S. minor league statistics to give an even better sample, for rough estimates I use a “90% of MLB runs” quality factor when creating MLE (Major League Equivalent) statistics for players moving to and from MLB. However, one point that is often missed is that ‘difference in quality’ is not the only factor to consider. Ballpark differences between MLB and NPB are a HUGE factor – so much so that they probably shape the perceptions of Japanese players coming to the U. S. more than any single aspect. The average/neutral NPB stadium is more offense friendly than its MLB counterpart, and MUCH more HR friendly. The average NPB park is 318-319 ft. down the lines, 371-372 ft. in the alleys, and 396 ft to dead center. The averages for MLB are 329, 378, and 402 ft. By my preliminary calculations for the ‘super-duper’ study, a neutral NPB park favors offense by 7% over a neutral MLB park, and favors home runs by a whopping 150%.

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I have a list of articles I intend to write, most about players who toiled long before any of us were a gleam in our parents’ eye (hell, long before our parents were gleams in their parents’ eyes), but sometimes events collide and new ideas crop up and articles seemingly write themselves. With the recent indictment of Barry Bonds for perjury and obstruction of justice, it seems Bonds’ career is over and his home run total of 762 is the new standard (assuming it’s allowed to stand). Frankly, I was overjoyed when I heard of Bonds’ indictment because I can’t stand him and it’s always been clear to me (and I’m assuming a majority of baseball fans) that Bonds had been taking performance enhancing drugs. I’m also saddened and a little outraged that the indictment didn’t come BEFORE Bonds broke Hank Aaron’s home run record, but I’ll save that rant for another day.

Prior to Bonds’ indictment I obtained a copy of the 1999 edition of a book called Diamond Chronicles (There were three editions from 1998 to 2000) that features commentary from Bill James, Rob Neyer, David Pinto, Mat Olkin, John Dewan, Craig Wright, and Don Zminda, among many others. Last night while watching the Patriots beat the snot out of the Bills, I ran across an interesting article written by Jim Henzler on September 11, 1998 called “The Ultimate Home-Run Race,” in which he uses James’ Favorite Toy formula to determine which player had the best chance of surpassing Aaron. Now that we’re all but certain that Bonds’ 762 is the new mark to beat, I thought it would be interesting to review what Henzler wrote and rerun those Favorite Toy predictions almost 10 years later.

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This is the first in a series of short articles and/or comments that I will be writing regarding baseball’s Hall of Fame.

Who belongs in the Hall of Fame? According to the guidelines set forth for the BBWAA election process, “Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.” This statement clearly says that “integrity, sportsmanship, character” may be considered. It does not say that accomplishments such as managing, broadcasting, etc. may be considered. There are some fans who feel that Phil Rizzuto, for example, was elected by the Veteran’s Committee partly because of his long broadcasting career. And since he played and was a broadcaster for the same team (the Yankees), one could interpret the statement above as allowing for this.

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Here on seamheads.com at “What’s On Second?”, we’ll be doing various ‘statistorian’ types of analysis, looking at the history and past statistics of baseball, hopefully with the goal of understanding the present a little differently.

Japanese baseball continues to have a bigger impact on U. S. baseball each passing year, with this year being the first time a Japanese born pitcher won a Wold Series game. This influx of Japanese players is of course relatively new, mostly occuring since Hideo Nomo debuted in 1995. But U. S. baseball impacting NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) has been going on for quite some time – over 600 players have played in both MLB and NPB. The influx of U. S. players to Japan geared up in the 1960’s, with players such as Larry Doby, Don Newcombe, Johnny Logan, Bob Nieman, Daryl Spencer, Norm Larker, Ken Aspromonte, Chuck Essegian, Don Zimmer, Don Blasingame, Dick Stuart, George Altman, Jim Gentile, etc. going over for at least a season, and later more accomplished players – all-stars, batting champs, and even MVP’s - such as Matty Alou, Zolio Versalles, Willie Davis, Joe Pepitone, Davey Johnson, Roy White, Reggie Smith, Bobby Tolan, Ben Oglivie, Rich Gossage, Bill Madlock, Bob Horner, Julio Franco, Jesse Barfield, Bill Gullickson, Tony Fernandez, Cecil Fielder, Mike Greenwell, Matt Stairs and Anfonso Soriano spent time in Japan.

Because more Japanese players are coming to America, the question this time of year becomes ‘Who is coming?” and “How well will they do?” By looking at the history of players moving between MLB and NPB, we’ll try to answer those questions intelligently in Part II.

Most baseball fans are aware that the current trade deadline is July 31, but from 1923 to 1985, the deadline was June 15, a date that’s often attributed to Harry Frazee’s alleged “Rape of the Red Sox,” in which he traded or sold most of his star players to the Yankees. Prior to 1923 the trade deadline was August 1, but when Frazee sent third baseman Joe Dugan to the Yankees on July 23, 1922, the transaction invited a storm of protests, especially from St. Louis, whose Browns held a slim game and a half lead over the second place Yankees. Most felt that adding Dugan to its roster gave New York a decided edge over the Browns and that the Yankees were attempting to buy the pennant. American League president, Ban Johnson, who despised Frazee, immediately called for a ban on mid-season trades. Commissioner Landis refused to entertain the suggestion— Landis despised Johnson as much as Johnson despised Frazee— but he agreed that a new deadline was in order and chose to adopt the June 15 recommendation of Pittsburgh Pirates magnate Barney Dreyfuss.

But contrary to popular belief the June 15 trade deadline had as much to do with the New York Giants’ mid-season deals as it did the Yankees’. The following includes excerpts from my book, Harry Frazee, Ban Johnson, and the Feud That Nearly Destroyed the American League, as well as details of the trades that were made that prompted Commissioner Landis to adopt a new trade deadline.

Editor’s note: some material unrelated to the trade deadline has been removed from the following excerpts.

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Bill James’ WIN SHARES system is the ultimate baseball statistic currently available to judge exactly how good a season a player had. That is the view of Dr. Michael Hoban -retired mathematics professor and serious baseball analyst. And that is why the professor has used WIN SHARES in his new book to create a new Hall of Fame monitor. The NEWS monitor tells us which players (whether in the HOF or not) have TRUE Hall of Fame numbers.

Professor Hoban has been a baseball fan for over 60 years and a serious baseball analyst for the past ten years (he is a member of SABR - Society for American Baseball Research).

The professor says that the publication of the book WIN SHARES in 2002 changed the face of baseball analysis where the comparison of baseball players is concerned. WIN SHARES is the most comprehensive tool available since it takes into account virtually every phase of a player’s contribution to his team – and adjusts for such things as different eras and different ballparks. And that is why Hoban has used the WIN SHARES system to create the NEWS Hall of Fame Monitor.

If you want to see a serious but somewhat different approach to ranking the best baseball players of the 20th century, this is it. Every fan with an interest in baseball’s Hall of Fame will want to examine this new ranking of the TRUE Hall of Famers.

Click here to see the professor’s list of the top 40 pitchers of the 20th century.

Bill James’ WIN SHARES system is the ultimate baseball statistic currently available to judge exactly how good a season a player had. That is the view of Dr. Michael Hoban -retired mathematics professor and serious baseball analyst. And that is why the professor has used WIN SHARES in his new book to create a new Hall of Fame monitor. The NEWS monitor tells us which players (whether in the HOF or not) have TRUE Hall of Fame numbers.

Professor Hoban has been a baseball fan for over 60 years and a serious baseball analyst for the past ten years (he is a member of SABR - Society for American Baseball Research).

The professor says that the publication of the book WIN SHARES in 2002 changed the face of baseball analysis where the comparison of baseball players is concerned. WIN SHARES is the most comprehensive tool available since it takes into account virtually every phase of a player’s contribution to his team – and adjusts for such things as different eras and different ballparks. And that is why Hoban has used the WIN SHARES system to create the NEWS Hall of Fame Monitor.

If you want to see a serious but somewhat different approach to ranking the best baseball players of the 20th century, this is it. Every fan with an interest in baseball’s Hall of Fame will want to examine this new ranking of the TRUE Hall of Famers.

Click here to see the professor’s list of the top 100 position players of the 20th century.

I received a lot of feedback about my Ted Williams article in which I opined that Williams was the greatest hitter who ever lived and presented my case by combining Williams’ real stats with five years’ worth of simulated stats that were generated by Micro League Baseball, a computer baseball game that came out in the early 1980s. I’ve responded to most of the feedback, but I wanted to use this forum to go into a little more detail and I thought it would be fun to compare Micro League’s output to the projections of others, including Richard Johnson and Glenn Stout, Steve Treder at The Hardball Times, and Bill James’ Brock2 career projection method, which James introduced in his 1985 Baseball Abstract.

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Ted Williams’ dream was to walk down the street and hear passersby say “there goes the greatest hitter who ever lived.” On the streets of Boston no one would dare say otherwise. In New York it’s Babe Ruth, who not only hit them far and often but occasionally would tell you when. Elsewhere, historians would argue for Ty Cobb and his gaudy career average of .366. Recently Barry Bonds, warts and all, has staked a claim to the title. Red Sox fans cite the fact that “Teddy Ballgame” missed five prime years of his career to fly planes in two wars and his statistics pale in comparison to what he might have done had he had those years to further terrorize pitchers.

I had often wondered the same thing myself. How would Ted Williams have done had he not missed those years? With the help of a computer and a baseball simulation program I have simulated the 1943-45 and 1952-53 seasons. The following article was written as if Williams had actually played those seasons. Some of the content is pure fiction based on the results of the simulation. My intent was to, once and for all, answer the age-old question “who was the greatest hitter who ever lived?” The answer, undoubtedly, is Ted Williams.

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