When Dusty Baker Starts Channeling Bill James
Dusty Baker has been called a “OBP-hating Luddite,” but his theory about young hitters is no different than that of Bill James.
This past Sunday, the excellent website Baseball Prospectus had an article by Joe Sheehan about Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker called “The Teflon Manager.” The article is essentially a rip job on Dusty, as Sheehan writes, “Dusty Baker has no real idea of what makes an offense run.” Later, he writes, “Dusty Baker may have positive qualities — he does seem to have a salutary effect on veterans, for one — but he is, one (sic) the whole, a negative force in the dugout.”
I’m not sure what to make of Dusty myself. On one hand, he took the Giants to the World Series, and took the Cubs to as close to the World Series as they have been since 1945. On the other, he does say some strange things.
Sheehan has also picked up on Dusty saying some strange things. In the article, he includes quotes from an article by John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
“He needs to swing some more,” Dusty said, talking about Joey Votto. “I talked to him about that. Strikeouts aren’t the only criteria. I’d like to see him more aggressive. A lot of this on-base percentage is taking away the aggressiveness of some young kids.”
Of course, Sheehan and others love quotes like this, because they believe in the importance of on-base percentage. To them, of course, it means that Dusty just doesn’t get it.
But a respected baseball observer said something very much like what Dusty said.
His name? Bill James.
Here’s James in the 1984 Bill James Baseball Abstract, writing about Chili Davis:
“I’ve always thought that if I were in a position to do so, I’d be very reluctant to try to tell players to take walks, even though I know how valuable walks are, because I’d be afraid it would make the players less aggressive at the plate.”
How’s that for irony? Of all the people you would expect to espouse Bill James’ ideas, Dusty Baker is probably last on the list. Sheehan even refers to him as an “OBP-hating Luddite.” while James, of course, is a big fan of on-base percentage.
This sparked my curious mind to look at the data on Dusty as a manager. How do his teams fare with regard to runs scored?
First, the conclusion: The record is mixed. Dusty’s record is very strong in this area with the Giants, and not so much with the Cubs.
Dusty managed the Giants from 1993 to 2002. Two things combine to distort the before and after data in this case:
1. Dusty was the Giants hitting coach from 1989 to 1992.
2. Dusty’s appointment as manager of the Giants coincided with the arrival of Barry Bonds.
Here are the Giants’ league rankings in runs scored in the three years before Dusty took over as manager:
| Year | Rank |
| 1990 | 4th |
| 1991 | 7th |
| 1992 | 11th |
Average position: 7.7
These are the Giants rankings with Dusty in charge:
| Year | Rank |
| 1993 | 2nd |
| 1994 | 10th |
| 1995 | 8th |
| 1996 | 6th |
| 1997 | 4th |
| 1998 | 2nd |
| 1999 | 3rd |
| 2000 | 3rd |
| 2001 | 5th |
| 2002 | 2nd |
Average position: 4.5
And the four years after Dusty left:
| Year | Rank |
| 2003 | 6th |
| 2004 | 2nd |
| 2005 | 15th |
| 2006 | 10th (tie) |
Average position: 8.3
Now here’s the same data for the Cubs:
Before Dusty:
| Year | Rank |
| 2000 | 11th |
| 2001 | 7th |
| 2002 | 11th |
Average position: 9.7
Under Dusty:
| Year | Rank |
| 2003 | 9th |
| 2004 | 7th |
| 2005 | 9th |
| 2006 | 15th |
Average position: 10
After Dusty:
| Year | Rank |
| 2007 | 8th |
(You guys can figure out the average)
Maybe Dusty Baker just looked like a good offensive manager because he had Barry Bonds. Maybe he’s succeeding in a way the statistics don’t accurately represent.
But if Dusty does not make the Reds one of the best teams in the National League, it will be the first time he has failed to do that as manager. That should give him something close to the benefit of the doubt.
Oh, and Chili
14 March 2008 07:34
No one is (or should be) arguing that a walk is more valuable than a hit. A hit is more valuable. It is more valuable regardless of whether the bases are empty, clogged or loaded.Additionally, no one should be arguing, at this point, that an out is more valuable than a walk. When a player of Davis’ caliber comes along and slumps in his sophomore season (not uncommon, mind you, and James is well aware of this) you would not want to discourage their chance of regaining confidence.
This idea has never been more elegantly expressed than in Branch Rickey’s famous LIFE magazine article: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/essays/rickey/goodby_to_old_idea.htm
14 March 2008 09:59
So Dusty Baker has the greatest hitter in the history of the game on his team for 10 years, but you think the Giants’ success at scoring runs has something to do with encouraging hitters to swing away?
Look, it’s about pitch recognition. Know what you can hit. Look for that pitch. Drive it. Don’t swing at balls outside the zone. Foul off strikes you can’t make good contact with. This is as old-school an approach as there is - Babe Ruth, Ted Williams.
Dusty has shown no indication that he gets that.
The Reds have a talent in Votto who has torn up the minors. And Dusty wants to mess with his approach? Votto is an asset worth tens of millions of dollars to the Reds. Dusty had better know what he’s doing before he messes with him - and frankly, Dusty’s ability to develop young players is miserable, so Dusty had better prove he knows what he’s doing before he messes with Votto.
14 March 2008 10:28
“How’s that for irony?”
No better than your logic, Alanis. James suggests he wouldn’t tell a successful, agressive hitter to look for walks. Adam Dunn is successful because of his current approach, so why do you think James would tamper with that?