Roto Chronicles: American League

An inaugural Seamhead’s look into the upcoming fantasy season.

I forgot to introduce myself in my first post on Friday. My name is Michael Taylor, and I will be contributing analysis on fantasy baseball along with a monthly article about the business side of the game. I hope you enjoy my work and I look forward to your feedback.

My goal throughout the year with “Roto Chronicles” will be to keep you informed about news and trends in the American League and their impact on your fantasy team. As we start the 2008 season in Japan this week, I take an initial look at how players have performed during the spring, while introducing you to the weekly topics of analysis. While spring training may not always translate well into the regular season, it can’t hurt to know who is swinging the bats well going into the first week of the season.

Three Up/Three Down

Three Up/Three Down will feature players that are most likely on your fantasy rosters. This will be a tracking feature on how their “stock” is doing. As we all know, there is an ebb and flow to a season and players will go through hot and cold streaks.

Not included this week is a streaking Alex Rodriguez, who is batting .452 with a .871 slugging percentage in 31 at-bats. Why? It’s hard to get much farther up than the number one overall pick in most any draft.

Hitters

• Josh Hamilton, OF - TEX (UP) Hamilton seems to be a consensus value pick in drafts this spring. While healthy with the Reds he posted some solid power numbers in 2007. He enters this season healthy and as the everyday starter in center field for the Rangers. Nobody is hotter than Hamilton this spring, he is batting .468 with two home runs and 14 RBIs.

• Ivan Rodriguez, C - DET (UP) Pudge may be entering the tail end of his long storied career, but is still playing as hard as he did 17 years ago. Tigers manager Jim Leyland has even mentioned that Rodriguez may bat leadoff against lefties this season instead of Granderson. Pudge has enjoyed a big power surge this spring hitting seven home runs while batting .354.

• Grady Sizemore, OF - CLE (UP) Don’t look for any let down from this budding young star. His developing plate discipline and power make him a threat to be a future first-round pick. Sizemore had his second two-homer day of the spring last week and is hitting .423 with 5 home runs and a slugging percentage of 1.115. If you believe in the John Dewan theory that says that a player generally will have a better season because their spring slugging percentage is 200 points higher than their career average, then Grady may be your man.

• Dustin Pedroia, 2B - BOS (Down) The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is struggling to get on base this spring. He is currently batting .179 with only a .282 slugging percentage. He will be counted on to get on base as a top of the order guy in the strong Red Sox lineup. This is probably just one of those spring training slumps. So don’t let this worry you too much.

• Ichiro Suzuki, OF – SEA (Down) Ichiro opened the spring season 0 for his first 21 at-bats. But he can’t be held down for too long. In his last 33 at-bats, Ichiro has ten hits, bringing his average up to .185.

• Frank Thomas, DH - TOR (Down) Thomas is the coldest player this spring. He has only four hits in 37 at-bats for a .108 average. Known for his ability to get on base via the walk, Thomas only has one walk all spring.

Pitchers

• George Sherrill, CL - BAL (UP) Acquired from Seattle in the Bedard deal, George Sherrill has earned the closers job for the Orioles. He’s had a solid spring allowing six base runners in seven innings while posting a 2.57 ERA and seven strikeouts.

• James Shields, SP - TB (UP) Shields was named the Opening Day starter for the Rays in place of the injured Scott Kazmir. The 26-year-old broke out for 12 wins, an ERA of 3.85 and 186 strikeouts last season. He looks ready to continue his being a solid fantasy performer again this season. He currently has 1.84 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings.

• Jered Weaver, SP - LAA (UP) With all of the injuries to the Los Angeles rotation, Jered Weaver will be looking to step up as the ace of the staff. Weaver has five wins this spring with a 1.33 ERA and 14 to 3 K/BB ratio in 20 1/3 innings.

• Erik Bedard, SP - SEA (Down) The expectations are high in Seattle for the newly acquired left-handed ace. He has yet to back up these expectations with success this spring. He’s had three straight bad outings and has a 9.50 ERA in 18 innings. Another question is that as a strikeout pitcher, he only has 8 Ks in those 18 innings.

• Todd Jones, CL - DET (Down) Todd Jones needs to be a solid option in the back end of the thin Detroit bullpen while Zumaya and Rodney heal. He is not giving management much confidence with his horrendous numbers this spring. His ERA stands at 10.24 and Jones has allowed 21 base runners in 9 2/3 innings of work.

• Francisco Liriano, SP - MIN (Down) Recovering from Tommy John surgery, Liriano may not have yet recovered enough to live up to the talent of his rookie season of 2006. He has struggled with command this spring, allowing 7 walks in 10 2/3 innings while posting a 5.06 ERA. It appears that he will start in AAA, but will be up very soon.

Injury Report

This week features pitchers and will be followed up by a position player report next week. In-season, I will be highlighting the comings and goings of players on the D.L. as well as news on impact players who may be experiencing minor pains that may effect their performance.

The Angels have been hit hard as Kelvim Escobar (shoulder) and ace John Lackey (Triceps) will both miss the entire month of April with possible returns in the middle of May….If you can, place both on the DL until they return. There is still great value to be used here.

Boston will be without Curt Schilling for a major portion of the season, as he was placed on the 60-day DL with degeneration in his right bicep…If you happened to have drafted him, its not worth the wait. Drop him. By the time he’d be coming back you most likely will have needed the DL spot on your roster more than once for others.

Josh Beckett has been struggling through back spasms in camp and will miss the opening series in Japan….Shouldn’t affect your roster, but is something to keep an eye on.

Scott Kazmir will start the season on the DL as a precaution to having pains in his pitching elbow. The plan is to activate him in mid-April….This is worrisome. I read he is feeling pain as he throws his slider. He has been fairly healthy thus far in his young career. Sit him down for now, but be cautious as he recovers.

Toronto reliever B.J. Ryan felt unusual soreness after pitching an inning in a game Monday and may begin the season on the disabled list….The good news is that it is not in the same area as the Tommy John surgery; the bad news is that it is on the other side of the same arm. Could this be something new? Sit him until further notice; he still could be an impact reliever this season.

Joel Zumaya is aiming for a mid-season return for the Tigers after undergoing off-season shoulder surgery….He may be worth keeping on your roster because with Todd Jones’ struggles, Zumaya may assume closer duties by the end of the year.

Walking the Wire

Going to the waiver wire to search around is always fun, at least for me. You could find the diamond in the rough that could help fill in and carry your team to a championship. You may not always have a need for a new player, but having the knowledge of what is available is paramount. If your star outfielder goes on the disabled list, you need to fill that space.

As the season progresses, you will find players who become red hot and warrant a look, but beware and don’t always buy. You may get yourself in a never-ending rut of acquiring players when it’s too late and their value is at its peak. All you will be left with are players who begin their cool down after filling in for your released player, who ironically is most likely heating up again. Careful selection is key to using the waiver wire to your benefit. Recent success is only a portion of what should be looked at; details such as BABIP, K/BB and HR/flyball ratios are important factors as well.

Each week I will be listing at least four players, an infielder, an outfielder, a starting pitcher and a reliever who should be considered if you are in need of some help at a position. Without further ado, here is my first shot at walking the wire.

• Billy Butler, 1B/DH - KC Depending on the size and type of your league, Butler may have been already drafted. He is however available in some and deserves to be mentioned. The 22-year old slugged 21 home runs with 98 RBI between AAA Omaha and Kansas City last season. Specifically while with the Royals, Butler hit .292 with a .447 slugging percentage in 329 at-bats. He is currently hitting the ball well this spring with a .358 average and four home runs.

• Franklin Gutierrez, OF – CLE Gutierrez will be the everyday right fielder in Cleveland. In 2007, he gave a sampling of why he was such a prospect in the Dodgers organization before being traded to the Indians in 2004 for Milton Bradley. In 277 at-bats he hit .266 with 13 home runs, 36 RBI and 8 stolen bases. Stretch that out over a full season and you have a player who could be a 20-20 threat. He is currently hitting .344 in the spring with a .594 slugging percentage.

• Shaun Marcum, SP - TOR Moved to the rotation in May last season, Marcum made 25 starts going 11-4 with a 3.91 ERA for the Jays. He was shut down in September with a meniscus tear in his right knee, but is fully recovered heading into 2008. Marcum will be a solid pick to get some wins on an improving Jays team. He improved his groundball percentage last season, which will be beneficial with the new Jays infield, and has improved his K/BB ratio two straight seasons. The issue for Marcum will still remain that he does give up the long ball.

• Kazuo Fukumori, RP - TEX Of the Japenese relievers entering the majors this season, Fukumori was least likely to be an impact player. Though, to his benefit, he did land on a team with problems at the closer position. With both potential closers, C.J. Wilson and Joaquin Benoit, suffering from injuries that have slowed their spring progress, Fukumori has seized the moment. He has yet to allow a run this spring in seven innings. He also has struck out six batters, allowed five hits and walked only one.

Futures Market

A valuable commodity to any fantasy team is a rookie that produces numbers comparable to the games best. Drafted late or not at all in preseason drafts, they present great potential for return on investment, which can shoot your team up the league standings.

A year ago, players such as Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Tim Lincecum, Hunter Pence and Chris Young, among others, gave owners these great returns, and probably a chance to finish near or at the top of their leagues. Specifically, Ryan Braun was the most common player found on the top 500 public league team rosters on Yahoo in 2007.

In 2006, there was an another big infusion of talent, as rookies Hanley Ramirez, Takashi Saito, Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, and Justin Verlander were a few of the many who took the fantasy world by storm. That season, Saito was the fourth most common player found in Yahoo’s top 500.

Here is an initial list of six AL rookies for 2008, who come into the season with the talent and hype to be “that guy” everyone wishes they selected on draft day.

1. Evan Longoria, 3B - TB: Will be sent down to AAA to start the season, but won’t be held back much longer. Will he be this seasons’ Ryan Braun? or Alex Gordon?
2. Clay Buchholz, SP – BOS: With the Schilling injury, Buchholz will get shot to prove his no-hitter was no fluke. Could be one of the AL’s top pitchers very soon.
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF – BOS: Takes over center from Coco Crisp for the Sox. Could steal 40-plus bases with a .300 average.
4. Ian Kennedy, SP – NYY: May not have the stuff of other young Yankee starters, but his command of the strike zone shot him through the system a year ago and landed him a spot in the starting rotation to start 2008.
5. Joba Chamberlain, RP – NYY: Fantasy value may be down some due to placement in the bullpen, but has potential to return to the rotation if needed or become the closer if anything should happen to Mariano Rivera.
6. Daric Barton, 1B – OAK: On-Base machine has starting gig in Oakland. Lack of a power stroke as a corner infielder limits his ceiling.

Buy Low/Sell High Players of the Week

Buy

Nick Swisher’s home run production did decrease from 35 to 22 in 2007, but that is not telling the truth about a developing slugger. Swisher’s BB/K ratio and batting average have increased three straight seasons. He is working counts and getting better pitches to hit. Plus, the move to a homer friendly park in U.S. Cellular Field will add to his HR potential. U.S. Cellular Field finished with a home run factor of 1.22, fourth in the majors, while McAfee Coliseum in Oakland was 25th with a 0.786 factor. As a flyball hitter, look for the home run totals to increase and potentially pass his 2006 numbers while posting better secondary stats.

Sell

Jorge Posada enjoyed one of the best seasons of his great career in 2007, batting a career high .338 with 20 HR and 91 RBI. The key factor for the success was his batting average on balls in play. His 2007 BABIP was an amazing .389, which is 66 points higher than his career average! It would be near impossible to replicate that again as an aging catcher. Another stat to pay attention to is his home run totals. Posada has seen a decrease in his career HR/FlyBall rate three straight seasons. In 2003, when he hit 30 HR, 22% of his fly balls were home runs, but in 2007, the rate has decreased to 13%. However, at such a weak fantasy position, Posada will still have value and should post solid numbers similar to his 2004 season.

Ranking of the Week – Top 10 AL Catchers

1. Victor Martinez, CLE
2. Joe Mauer, MIN
3. Jorge Posada, NYY
4. Kenji Johjima, SEA
5. Ivan Rodriguez, DET
6. Ramon Hernandez, BAL
7. Jason Varitek, BOS
8. A.J. Pierzynski, CHW
9. Dionner Navarro, TB
10. Mike Napoli, LAA

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.