Are the Braves Returning to Old Glories, or Are They Just Old?

The National League East appeared to be a two-team race as Spring Training opened. The Mets have made the big splash with Santana, of course, and the Phillies return nearly all the players from last year’s division championship team. But the buzz in recent weeks has focused around the Atlanta Braves being a potential third contender. Steve Phillips of ESPN mentioned them as a dark-horse during a broadcast a few weeks ago, and on Tuesday Tim Kurkjian mentioned them in the same context. Kurkjian quoted Braves’ rightfielder Jeff Francouer as saying that when he looked around at the names on the jerseys, he sees a lot of quality.

But who are these names? In every area of their team, the Braves seem to be a glass half-empty or half-full, depending on what you want to see. The mainstay of the team for nearly two decades now has been manager Bobby Cox. If there is quality in Atlanta, Cox will find a way to guide it to the playoffs. But is there enough quality there?

The pitching staff is a good place to start. John Smoltz is the leader here, and he seems to be defying age. Last year Smoltz went 14-8 with an ERA of 3.11 and 197 strikeouts. But Smoltz is also 40 years old, and although his years as a closer have undoubtedly prolonged his career, 40 is still 40, and it ain’t the new 20 when it comes to baseball. Even Smoltz’s recent shoulder troubles, which could land him on the DL to start the season, is either a minor thing, or an omen of a pitcher about to break down. This same problem caused him to miss some starts last season. A surer thing in the starting rotation is Tim Hudson, who went 16-10 with an ERA of 3.33 in 2007. Hudson’s only 32, and he started 34 games and pitched 224.1 innings last season. Hudson seems to be one sure thing for the Braves.

The rest of the starting rotation is a crap shoot. Tom Glavine returns to Atlanta after a few mediocre seasons with the Mets. Glavine finished his time in New York on a down note. Despite his 13-8 record, his ERA ballooned to 4.45, and he had a meltdown in September. He’s also 42, and unlike Smoltz his age seems to have caught up with him. There are those who think Glavine is still a quality thrid starter, but I just don’t see it. Another question mark is Mike Hampton, who’s back after missing two seasons in a row with elbow surgeries. Reports are that Hampton pitched well in the Mexican League over the winter and has continued to impress this spring. Glavine and Hampton are two names that look good on a uniform, but counting on a 42 year old and a pitcher who has been out the last two seasons seems iffy at best. Rounding out the rotation are Jair Jurrens, acquired from the Tigers for SS Edgar Renteria, and Chuck James. Jurrens went 3-1 in 7 starts last season while James went 11-10 in 30 starts for the Braves. So either the Braves have a staff with a good mix of experience and youth, with old hands to guide the young talent, or they have four guys over the hill and two guys who aren’t ready.

The Braves have a similar, if less dramatic problem in the field. First baseman Mark Texeira was acquired from the Rangers in the middle of last season. The good news is nearly all of his already impressive numbers improved after joining the Braves. The bad news is that his 30 home runs were the most any Brave had last season. Chipper Jones had 29 home runs and 102 RBI, but he’s 35, and his 134 games last season were the most he’s played in since 2004. Francoeur remains solid, having hit .293 with 19 home runs and 105 RBI last season. With three 100-RBI guys in the lineup, the Braves should score plenty of runs, but an overall lack of power could hurt an offense that will need to score a lot.

The main questions in the field center around the shortstop and centerfield positions. These positions were manned by Edgar Renteria and Andruw Jones last season. Now they’re manned by Mark Kotsay and Yunel Escobar. Escobar batted .326 in 94 games last season, but he committed 11 errors, although, in his defense, he played three different infield positions. The Braves are hoping that stability enables him to blossom. Kotsay is a definite drop-off from Jones though. He had back surgery last spring and a recurrence of the same problem later in the season limited him to 56 games. Even when playing, Kotsay hit a paltry .214 with one home run. Along with second baseman Kelly Johnson, who committed 14 errors last season, the Braves have a shaky defense up the middle.

The Braves have an excellent bench and a fine bullpen. Backing up the outfielders will be Josh Anderson, who was acquired from Houston. The 26-year-old had 24 hits in 21 games last season and has shown promise this spring. Look for him to move into the starting lineup if Kotsay falters. Backing up the infield is utilityman Omar Infante. Infante played 66 games with Detroit last season, batting .271 and committing 4 errors while playing 2b, 3b, ss, and outfield. Infante will be a versatile and quality glove. In the pen is closer Rafael Soriano. Soriano pitched 72 innings last season with an ERA of 3.00, mostly in the set up role. He also had 9 saves in 12 opportunities. Setting up Soriano will be Manny Acosta, who in four spring appearances has yet to give up a run, and Peter Moylan, who has given up 2 hits and no runs in 6 2/3 innings this spring.

The Braves come into 2008 with more questions than most. Will the rotation hold up? Will Soriano grow into the role of full-time closer? Will the bullpen be overtaxed? The Braves are a trendy pick this spring, but they’ll only make the playoffs if these questions find affirmative answers. If not, it could be a long summer.