Will Escobar’s and Lackey’s Injuries Doom the Angels?

My original title for this post was “Why Isn’t Anyone Talking About the Angels?” I figured the addition of Torii Hunter(!) to the lineup of a team that made the playoffs last year (and had been seriously lacking power) was a coup worthy of attention and a move that should make the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (and Orange County and California and the United States, and whatever other territories they’re claiming nowadays) a serious World Series contender. I assumed there was some good old-fashioned East Coast bias at work here. The Mets got Santana (although in my opinion, he’s less of a sure thing than Hunter), the Tigers have a lineup to rival the ‘27 Yankees, the Cubs have reached the century mark for futility, and the Red Sox and Yankees always get more than their fair share of ink even when they’re being relatively quiet. One look at the Angels’ 2008 lineup convinced me that this team is suffering from an attention deficit.

But that was before news came out last week that starting pitcher Kelvim Escobar may need shoulder surgery that could put him on the shelf for the year. Escobar is part of a one-two punch (along with John Lackey) that has won as many games as the more celebrated duos of Beckett-Schilling in Boston and Sabathia-Carmona in Cleveland. Escobar is expected to miss at least the first four to six weeks of the season. Lackey himself has a strained triceps in his throwing arm that will keep him out up to eight weeks. So now the question becomes, How long will these two be out? and, How will these injuries affect the Angels’ chances in ‘08?

The best case scenario for the Angels has Escobar and Lackey coming back in the minimum time projected and pitching at their 2007 levels. Meanwhile, the team wins enough games to stay in first place. The Angels have not only one of the best lineups in the AL but also one of its weakest schedules. This is thanks to their division, which is starting to look more like a Triple-A league than an MLB division (For more on the division as a whole, read Matt Sisson’s “Climbing the Ladder with the AL West” dated March 16). So when Escobar and Lackey return, healthy and rested, the Angels take off and make a deeper run in the postseason than in 2007, thanks to Hunter’s added pop.

The worst case scenario has Escobar and Lackey out for the season. This seems likely with Escobar, who has a tear in a shoulder muscle in his throwing arm and will likely need surgery. Lackey seems to be less of a concern with his strained triceps, although that injury, along with an elbow problem earlier this spring, may be the sign of a pattern. But I’ll put my money on Lackey returning. He’s only 29 and has made at least 32 starts in each of the last five seasons and pitched at least 200 innings in the last three.

The Angels will make the postseason without a problem. The question is how far they will get once they are there. Lackey, the team’s ace, went 19-9 with an ERA of 3.01 last season. Assuming Escobar is out for the year and Lackey will return, the Angels will need someone to step up into the number two slot. The obvious candidate is Jered Weaver. Weaver went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 28 starts last season. He also made the opening day start on Monday, giving up 3 runs in 6 1/3 in a loss to the Twins. The other contender is Jon Garland, newly acquired from the White Sox. Garland went 10-13 last season with a 4.23 ERA. Rounding out the rotation will be Ervin Santana (7-14, 5.76 in 2007) and Joe Saunders (8-5, 4.44 ERA in 18 starts last year). Dustin Moseley will be the fifth starter until Lackey returns, with Nick Adenhart and Nick Green possibly getting starts.

So assuming Escobar is out, the question becomes, how (or if) the Angels can make up for his absence. The added runs courtesy of Hunter’s bat is a good start, but a deeper look at the starting rotation’s numbers reveals that the Angels may not miss Escobar as much as believed.

Escobar’s W-L record went from 11-14 in 2006 to 18-7 in 2007. However his ERA went down only from 3.61 to 3.40, both respectable numbers, but there’s not enough drop-off there to explain the huge jump in winning percentage. The real reasons? Going from 17 unearned runs (a little over .5 per start) in 2006 to 5 in 2007 is a good start. The other, more significant factor is run support, which went from 3.63 in 2006 to 6.03 in 2007.

In this light, replacing Escobar may be an easier task than previously believed. So back to the candidates. Can Weaver move into the number 2 slot? He’ll be the number one until Lackey returns. The word around the campfire is that this Weaver is made of tougher stuff than his older brother, who withered under the glare of Yankee Stadium. But this Weaver also saw his ERA balloon from 2.56 to 3.91, the result of doing worse in almost every pitching category, including, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, H/9 and BB/K. This year will tell whether Weaver is a one-year wonder who the rest of American League has figured out, or whether he’s the real deal.

The other big-name (relatively speaking) in the Angels’ rotation is Jon Garland, whose numbers have progressively worsened since he went 18-10 with a 3.50 ERA in 2005. The key stat for Garland is his GO/AO ratio, which has gone from 1.38 in 2005 to 1.02 in 2007. His WHIP, accordingly, has gone from 1.17 in 2005, to 1.32 in 2007. Garland’s 2006 numbers were just as bad or worse, only he got away with it to the tune of an 18-7 record. Last year he went 10-13 thanks in part to 16 unearned runs and less run support.

The third and final guy I’ll talk about here is Ervin Santana. At 25, Santana is still developing, but last year his development went backwards in a hurry. After going 16-8 with a 4.28 ERA in 2006, Santana went 7-14 with a 5.76 ERA. Santana’s problem is that he’s neither a strikeout pitcher (141 in 2006, 126 in 2007), nor a ground ball pitcher. His GO/AO ratio has consistently stayed within the 0.76-0.81 range. Last year, opponents’ hitting categories ballooned to the tune of .497 SLG and .357 OBA. These number have to make Angels management more than a little nervous.

So what’s the verdict? The Angels should be praying for Lackey’s return. Until then, expect a lot of 10-9 ballgames for this team. Even when healthy, Escobar has been inconsistent, and he’ll be hard pressed to repeat last season’s success. If Weaver turns into a genuine number two starter, and if Garland can regain his 2005 form, and if Santana can be at least a serviceable .500 pitcher… That’s a lot of ifs. The Angels appear to be turning into another version of the Texas Rangers. Unless this team finds another starter before the trading deadline, it’s going to be another short October for the Angels.