The Worst of Baseball Prospectus

Sometimes BP’s snarky writers are a little off on their assessments.

“The upper levels of the organization are still pretty thin in terms of prospects, so Holliday still gets mentioned. Outfield corners who can’t slug .400 should get to be non-prospects pretty quickly, but a nice AFL gave people a continuing excuse to call Holliday a talent. … A third weak year at the plate should get him booted from the 40-man roster.”

Baseball Prospectus 2004, on Rockies outfield prospect Matt Holliday

There is no denying the impact of Baseball Prospectus. In an age where the Internet is filled with baseball writers, their fine writers have done an excellent job on their website and in their books of providing great information.

There has, however, been criticism of the writers for being excessively and/or unnecessarily snarky. I think it’s warranted. When I was researching this article, I saw a piece on the BP website about Reds announcer Jeff Brantley.

Jim Baker, the author, wrote about how Brantley made a point of talking about how Edwin Encarnacion is “not clutch.” Encarnacion, of course, followed with a three-run homer to win the game.

Baker proposed calling this kind of thing, “Pulling a Brantley.” Wrote Baker, “We’ve all written or said things that very soon thereafter were followed by results directly opposed to our confident assurances. What sets Brantley apart, though, is the timely and dramatic fashion in which fate skewered him; that and the fact that he did it in the YouTube age. Oh, and the fact that he was so adamant about his position, almost to the point of zealotry.”

That last sentence, to be fair, sounds a lot like the authors from Baseball Prospectus. Baker’s article also fails to note that Brantley carried himself with class after he was proven wrong, yelling out to fellow announcer Thom Brenneman, “You called it! I stand corrected, my friend!”

So just for fun (and fairness), let’s look at some predictions by the BP writers in the 2004, 2005 and 2006 annuals, the kind which didn’t exactly turn out to be right with time. Before we go on, two things:

1. I am not advocating that we call this “Pulling a BP.”

2. I am not saying I would have known that these assessments were wrong at the time, or that the BP authors should have known. If you look at as many players as they do, you’re going to have some clunkers just by the law of averages. I love their stuff. I’m just pointing out that they were wrong — as they did with Brantley.

Here then, are the predictions:

“He’s not going to be a tremendous closer or anything, but he should have a clean shot at a bullpen job to start the season. Strictly back-of-the bullpen material.”

BP 2004, on J.J. Putz

“There is little doubt that Leyland will be a better manager than Trammell, but there is some question as to whether he is really the right man for this particular job. The Tigers’ front office contends that the time off has ‘rekindled’ Leyland’s passion for the game, but comebacks are often better as fantasy than reality. … After six years’ idleness, Leyland may find that his instincts aren’t quite as sharp as they once were.”

BP 2006, on Jim Leyland

2004: “If you want a comp, think Tim Unroe or Matt Mieske. That’s Uggla’s upside.”

2006: “With the Marlins he has a chance to start at second. The bar is low, but considering he’ll move from low minors hitter’s parks in offensive leagues to a major-league pitcher’s park, the results should be predictably Uggla.”

BP, on Dan Uggla

“Gone to Minnesota in the Pierzynski deal; this was a good time to trade him.”

BP 2004, on Joe Nathan

“In any event, the Cardinals’ first attempt to get in on the Asian invasion was more novelty act than earnest vetting of the talent pool in question. If he goes north with the big club, the Cards have a problem.”

BP 2004, on So Taguchi

“There’s no indication that he is ready for the major leagues, but the Marlins are apparently going to let him try.”

BP 2006, on Hanley Ramirez (Ramirez hit .292 with 46 doubles, 17 homers and 51 stolen bases for the Marlins in 2006)

“In any event, his power and speed both appear to be dissipating, and without those he won’t hold a starting job for long.”

BP 2004, on Jimmy Rollins

“(H)is swing is long, his bat is a bit on the slow side, and he has sub-optimal plate discipline. In other words, it’ll be surprising if those power numbers hold up at the higher levels.”

BP 2005, on Brian McCann

“‘Little Matsui,’ as Kazuo hates to be called, may wind up being the better Matsui on this side of the Atlantic.”

BP 2004, on Kaz Matsui

“An amazing pitcher, we’ll be debating his Hall of Fame chances a few years from now.”

BP 2004, on Keith Foulke

“He should profit from seeing his catching workload decrease to 120 games behind the plate while soaking up some DH at-bats, which might prolong his career to the point where he’ll be a serious Hall of Fame candidate.”

BP 2005, on Jason Kendall

“Any credible argument on behalf of Cust jumped the shark a long time ago, and even Billy Beane has given up on him. Sure, the stathead community would have loved to see what he’d have done with 750 big-league at-bats, but Cust’s case for a job has never been that strong.”

BP 2005, on Jack Cust

“Regardless, he won’t hit over .330 again.”

BP 2006, on Placido Polanco (Polanco hit .341 in 2007)

“He should be OK in the near term, but could be an albatross by the time he rakes in $17 million in ‘06.”

BP 2004, on Chipper Jones

“Utley is not going to be a star, but second base is a thin position and his extra-base power should provide the Phillies with a competitive advantage.”

BP 2005, on Chase Utley

“Taken together, you’ve got someone who should hit like a lesser Preston Wilson, except that he’s a slow first baseman and isn’t getting an altitude boost to his numbers.”

BP 2004, on Ryan Howard

“In two years, one of the Molina brothers will be backing up this guy, one of the two best catching prospects in the game (along with Guillermo Quiroz) not named Joe Mauer.”

BP 2004, on Jeff Mathis

“Unless Bonds fails a test, Palmeiro will be the symbol for the unrepentant user. That’s the truth as the world sees it.”

BP 2006, on Rafael Palmeiro

“While he’s not going to get any better, Harang should be a solid third man in a big league rotation for years to come.”

BP 2006, on Aaron Harang

2005: “A championship-caliber player about to happen.”

2006: “Crosby does everything well on the baseball field.”

2008: “Let’s face it, his rookie year was a bit overrated in the first place; 22 home runs from a rookie shortstop is great, but outside of his power, he struggled at the plate.”

BP, doing some revisionist history on Bobby Crosby

“His age and the organizational affection for him mark Cano as a prospect, but there’s not much here. … Trade bait.”

BP 2004, on Robinson Cano

“With his contract expiring at the end of 2004, and with the popular backstop approaching his mid-30s, a lot of people are already handing Shoppach the 2005 catcher’s job.”

BP 2004, on Jason Varitek

2004: “It would be surprising if he didn’t get better, though.”

2005: “There’s no element to his game where he hasn’t improved, and with the star shortstops generally congregating in the AL, his first All-Star appearance in 2004 won’t be his last.”

2006: “If any one player’s single season set off the fluke klaxon, it was Wilson’s 2004.”

BP through the years (and apparently knowing the past all along) on Jack Wilson

“Their opportunity has passed; the constant exodus of talent will relegate this team to second-tier status.”

BP 2005, on the Chicago White Sox

One place where BP (and just about everybody else, except the Atlanta Braves) was wrong so far was about Andy Marte, the one-time super-prospect. Check out BP on Marte through the years. I especially got a kick out of the last entry. Wait for it. It’s worth it:

2004: “A player with Marte’s diversity of skills, and at such a young age, has so many ways to develop into a true superstar player. … Marte is as safe a bet as a prospect can be without ever playing a game in the high minors.”

2005: “The best prospect in baseball and a future superstar. … His .274 lifetime average isn’t bad at all when you consider he has spent almost his entire career in pitchers’ parks, and his career .479 slugging average is outstanding for a player who has always been among the youngest players in his league.”

2006: “The Braves’ inability to find playing time for Marte is the Red Sox’ gain. … Marte should give the Sox about everything you’d want from a third baseman other than a high batting average, and Fenway Park may give him that anyway.”

2008: “Once the pride of the Atlanta system, Marte has been reduced to Triple-A filler. As it turns out, he just isn’t that good, a pure miss from a scouting and player development standpoint. If you look at his numbers, you’ll see that Marte was never blow-you-away great in the first place.”