Roto Chronicles: American League – April 21
It’s a long season, let’s practice a little patience.
While you may start getting frustrated with the start of a couple of your star players, it is still worth waiting awhile longer as the season settles into a rhythm before acting upon their initial disappointment. Though, at the same time try to send out feelers and see if anybody might be willing to part with a C.C. Sabathia or Robinson Cano at a discounted price. You may just get lucky. In one Yahoo trade, Ichiro Suzuki’s relatively slow start led an owner, I would assume in the need for saves, to trade him for the Orioles’ hot closer, George Sherrill. You definitely would not have envisioned this as a trade possibility on draft day, but the fact remains that people get nervous about now and you might just be one who cashes in.
THREE UP/THREE DOWN
Hitters
Raul Ibanez, OF - SEA (UP) With an average draft position of 155 to start the season, many overlooked the steady bat of Raul Ibanez. He has been a safe bet to hit around .290 and give 20 HR/90 RBI a year and doesn’t look to be slowing down just yet. The Mariners’ left fielder is hitting .316 with five home runs and 16 RBI to date. He is currently in the top five in the AL in hits, home runs, RBI, SLG% and OPS.
Casey Kotchman, 1B – LAA (UP) The former number one draft pick and long time top prospect of the Angels may finally be breaking through at age 25. He is in his second season as the starting first baseman and is fulfilling his hype as a great hitter for average, and now is producing some power to go along with it. He is currently hitting .319 with four home runs and 12 RBI. Look for the batting average to stay around .300 as he has cut down on his strikeouts and is keeping a contact rate above 90%. The power may be a bit of an aberration, but it certainly is nice to see.
Manny Ramirez, OF - BOS (UP) What else is there to say other than, “Manny is being Manny.” He exploded this week by hitting .462 with four home runs, nine RBI and nine runs scored. The whispers about his career slowing down at age 35 have all but disappeared. This guy is still one of the top 2-3 right-handed hitters in the game today. He is only four home runs away from 500 in his career, and is becoming a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame.
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B – CLE (DOWN) The Indians have given utility infielder Jamey Carroll plate appearances usually taken by Cabrera in recent days. Cabrera, who was a jolt to the lineup for the Indians’ stretch run last year is struggling out of the gate, hitting .193 in 57 at-bats. Among the problems are a lack of plate discipline, which has been a relative strength, and a lack of power as he has only four extra base hits, all doubles. This is likely a temporary move to give him a chance to regroup. Cabrera did return to play shortstop Saturday, as the Indians gave Jhonny Peralta a day off, and responded going 2-3 with two doubles batting eighth in the lineup.
Placido Polanco, 2B – DET (DOWN) Initially Polanco was going to be the buy low target for the week, but late news of his back problem puts him square into declining mode. He is experiencing a horrible run of luck. After hitting a career high .341 last season, Polanco is currently hitting below the Mendoza line at .148 and has been playing through a stiff back since spring. He may be placed onto the DL upon further examination. Place him on your DL until he returns, he still has value once he returns. He was still putting the ball into play as normal, but the back must have helped cause the sudden increase in ground balls.
Frank Thomas, DH – TOR (DOWN) Off to another slow start with his batting average, the Blue Jays have decided to cut ties with the “Big Hurt” cutting off any chance that he could earn the $10 million extension due if he accumulated 376 plate appearances. Thomas is only batting .167, but has three home runs and eleven RBI in 60 at-bats. Thomas will find a new home shortly. There are teams in the AL that need some power from the DH spot. I would hold on and not release Thomas just yet, with regular time in a new home, he will still get his 20-plus homers.
Pitchers
Javier Vazquez, SP – CHW (UP) Vazquez is pitching like he is the ace of the resurgent White Sox. He has won three starts in a row and now stands at 3-1 with a 3.20 ERA. He is continuing to give fantasy owners plenty of strikeouts, 27 in 25 1/3 innings. A streak of 15 straight scoreless innings was snapped in the sixth inning of a start against the Rays Friday. A big test comes this week, as he will start against the Yankees on Thursday night.
Roy Halladay, SP – TOR (UP) They may have been against the Texas Rangers, but how many pitchers in the modern day era can throw back-to-back complete games? Halladay has done that and is currently enjoying a fine start to 2008. He is now 2-2 with a 3.27 ERA, but what may look even better to fantasy fans is his return to a K/BB ratio over four, which is aiding his low ERA and WHIP. This is a great sign. In seasons, where Halladay’s K/BB ratio is at least 3.75, his ERA is 3.04, if it below, his ERA is 4.18.
C.J. Wilson, CL – TEX (UP) Many questioned Wilson and the Rangers closer options going into the season, but the back end is looking to be a team strength. Wilson has converted all five of his save opportunities, and has allowed only two hits in eight innings. He converted 12 of 13 chances after taking over for Eric Gagne last season. That is now 17 of 18, but be weary. He has an unbelievably lucky .089 BABIP against, a 100% LOB rate and has only struck out two while walking five batters.
Jeremy Accardo, RP – TOR (DOWN) Nobody’s fantasy stock has fallen as much as Accardo’s over the past week. First, B.J. Ryan returned as the Jays’ closer and at the same time, Accardo ran into some serious struggles. Accardo did convert his first three save opportunities of the season, but since April 6, has allowed eight runs over five innings of work, blowing two saves while losing three. His ERA stands at 9.00, which looks terrible, but his 46.2 LOB% is not to pretty either, before Sunday’s save it was 36%, among the worst in the league. This is the major reason why his ERA is so high, if this stat would be at his career rate of 70%, his ERA would be around five.
Phil Hughes, SP – NYY (DOWN) A candidate for Rookie of the Year, Hughes has not lived up to expectations through his first four starts. He has lost three starts in a row and has yet to pitch into the seventh inning in any start. The problem has been a lack of command, as his BB/9 is over five, and he has allowed 25 hits in 16 1/3 innings. This includes a solid 52.8 LOB%. His next start is not a great match up as he will be in a hitter friendly park facing a patient White Sox team, who are second in the league in scoring.
Justin Verlander, SP – DET (DOWN) Touted by many to be the frontrunner for the Cy Young award before the season, Verlander has yet to pitch a quality start. Granted it is only four starts, but with the drop in velocity together with a decrease in his K/BB ratio, Verlander’s young arm may be showing its first signs of trouble. His ERA stands at 7.05, but his run average is 8.88 and his BABIP against is actually 45 points better this season, .248, as compared to his career average of .293. If things don’t turn around soon, he may not even be much of a buy low candidate.
INJURY REPORT
For the sake of the Indians, their fans and Joe Borowski himself, he was placed on the disabled list with a strained triceps muscle in his throwing arm supposedly dating back to spring training. If true, what were the Indians and Borowski trying to hide? Rafael Betancourt will initially take over the closers role and we will have to wait and see how this plays out. I wouldn’t rule out Borowski just yet, the Indians still seem to believe in him.
Howie Kendrick is starting to turn into the Rich Harden of position players. He teases with his great talents, but consistently finds ways to stay out of the lineup. Kendrick is now suffering from a strained hamstring that has landed him on the DL until at least the 29th of April. He had just recovered from a hand injury relating to a hit-by-pitch a week ago and had multiple hand injuries last year…Yet, when in the lineup, not many can handle the bat as well as he can.
Rich Harden still has no timetable for his return from back soreness that placed him on the DL. It is being rumored that it may now stretch into May before his next start….Keep him in your DL reserve or try and see what you can get for him. You probably won’t get much in a trade right now, so just holding on might be the safest bet for now.
The Erik Bedard hip injury is starting to become more serious. He was placed on the DL retroactive to April 9, which means he is eligible to return next Thursday, but will most likely just begin throwing on a schedule before getting back into the rotation the following week….This may help explain his command issues from the spring and his first two starts, but if he will be truly healthy upon returning look for the usual great stuff.
Mariners’ closer, J.J. Putz, threw a simulated game on Saturday and could be activated as soon as Tuesday.
The Tigers continue to have injury concerns as Gary Sheffield now is having problems with his surgically repaired shoulder, on top of his finger problem. He will be checked out along with Placido Polanco and his bad back to see if the disabled list is needed. The Sheffield situation is getting pretty worrisome. He is now 39 and is having numerous problems. Though his potential still makes him a player worthy of a DL spot if he ends up there.
The Rays are having a busy week with injury news, as catcher Dionner Navarro and pitcher Matt Garza will be activated this week, while reliever Al Reyes was sent to the DL with a shoulder impingement. Also in the near future, Scott Kazmir is slated to return the first week of May barring any setbacks. He completed three successful innings without allowing any earned runs in a start for single-A Vero Beach Friday.
Others starting rehab assignments include John Lackey and Curtis Granderson. Lackey is slated to make 3-4 starts before being activated in early May, while Granderson started rehab on Friday going 2-4 with a triple, and may be activated as early as Tuesday….Both will be immediate plays upon returning.
WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)
Mark Teahen, 1B/OF – KC Currently batting third in the Royals lineup, Teahen is a solid option as a fill-in player who has multiple position eligibility. He will not provide great power, or great stolen base numbers, but what he does do, is get on base,currently at a .370 pace. The number that seems to be stuck in everybody’s head is the seven home runs he hit last year, but that was mostly due to a large dip in HR/Flyball rate, as more hits went for doubles than homers. There should be more opportunities for RBI in an improving Royals lineup, and look for him to hit around .290 with 15 home runs 80 RBI and steal 10 bases.
Milton Bradley, OF – TEX Owned in only 29% of ESPN leagues, Bradley and his solid bat is most likely available in your league. His 13-game hitting streak was snapped Saturday night as a pinch-hitter, but came back Sunday to hit a three run homer. Also, I like the fact that he is playing in the Ballpark at Arlington (I like that name more than Ameriquest Field) should aid in potential for 20 plus homers if he stays healthy and on the field.
Cliff Lee, SP – CLE Fighting for his job entering 2008, Cliff Lee has responded with flying colors. He is off to an amazing start. In three starts he is 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA, struck out 20 batters and walked only two. He is learning to pitch and get more ground balls ala teammate Jake Westbrook.While this level of play is definitely not going to continue, the start has however shown a resurgent Lee looking like the Cy Young contending pitcher of 2005 when he won 18 games. With a strong Indians team, he could win 15 games. Lee’s next start will be Thursday against the Royals, whom he owns a 7-4 lifetime record against.
Jeremy Accardo, RP – TOR Also listed above as a declining value, this makes Accardo a very cheap pick-up. It is still early in Ryan’s comeback from Tommy John and Accardo does still have value as a fill-in closer when Ryan can’t go. And as stated above, Accardo has suffered from some bad luck with a very low LOB% and high BABIP, which has led to the terrible start. Look for Accardo to start putting zeros on the board very soon and still accumulate a low level of saves, with the chance for more if Ryan should have any setbacks. As I am finishing this, I read he just recorded a save, thus we will probably start seeing his name on the ADD lists today.
FUTURES MARKET
With John Bale going on the disabled list with arm problems, Luke Hochevar was called up to make his 2008 debut Sunday. Hochevar was the Royals first round pick in 2006 and has shot through their system in little over a year with his mid-90’s fastball and solid curve. If he impresses, this may not be just a temporary move. Though his debut line of six runs in 4 2/3 innings is not pretty. He did have a fine 2.60 ERA in three starts in AAA before the promotion.
With Brad Wilkerson struggling in right field for the Mariners, Wladimir Balentien may be soon getting a call. He is currently has an OPS of .843 with three home runs and 15 RBI. He has big power upside and can steal some bases, keep a watch out in the transaction lines for his name. When he is called up, he is a solid pickup that could pay early dividends.
One of the players brought over from the Mets in the Santana deal, Kevin Mulvey, is pitching lights out baseball for AAA Rochester. In three starts, he is 2-1 with a 1.02 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings. Teammate Phillip Humber, who has more experience who currently has a 5.09 ERA, may still get the first shot, but Mulvey is putting the pressure on and making this deal look better and better.
Evan Longoria was not the only top prospect at AAA Durham, shortstop Reid Brignac is also highly touted. Brignac has 20-plus homer potential and has stolen 15 bases each of the past two seasons. He is currently behind Rays starter Jason Bartlett, but could be a call-up at anytime. He is currently hitting only .246, but has shown improved plate discipline and hit two home runs.
Blue Jays outfield prospect, Adam Lind, is making it tough to keep the likes of Matt Stairs and Shannon Stewart ahead of him on the depth chart. And now with the Blue Jays releasing Frank Thomas, the door is opening up for a roster spot. The 25-year old Lind is crushing the ball with a .640 SLG percentage and has three home runs and 13 RBI. His .360 batting average isn’t that bad either.
Not only is Brandon Wood producing power in AAA Salt Lake, fellow Angels’ prospect Sean Rodriguez is off to a terrific start. He is hitting .333 with a .711 SLG% with four home runs and eleven RBI….Rodriguez was promoted Saturday after Howie Kendrick was placed on the DL. He is not worthy of a pickup yet as he will likely split time with Maicer Izturis and be sent back to AAA when Kendrick returns, but definitely keep an eye on him.
BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK
Buy - Robinson Cano, 2B – NYY It would be easy to place David Ortiz here as he continues his downslide, but most will hold and wait with Ortiz. One player who may be available at a discount is Robinson Cano. Typically a slow starter, Cano is off to a very cold start for the Bronx Bombers to start 2008. He is batting .169 and only scored three runs in 80 plate appearances. Cano has even been lowered to eighth in the lineup. He did hit a pinch hit home run against Al Reyes on Monday night, but continued to go only 3 for 23 the rest of the week. He should be targeted as a buy low candidate. He will turn it around. He is too good of a hitter.
Sell – Livan Hernandez, SP – MIN The 1997 World Series MVP, I will always remember as an Indians fan, is off to a fast start in 2008. He is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He is giving the Twins exactly what they asked for, a veteran presence who will give innings to a young rotation. However, the early success is party smoke and mirrors. He is producing a higher than usual number of groundballs and walking significantly less batters. His groundball ratio has jumped from 38 to 50%, and his BB/9 is down from 3.48 to 1.33. The BB/9 ratio has steadily gone up four straight seasons entering 2008, thus it would be hard to think this will continue. If you have Livan, try to shop him to see what may bite, because before too long, his normal high WHIP of around 1.45 will resurface and those extra runners will begin scoring.
Ranking of the Week – Top 10 Eligible AL Third Baseman
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Chone Figgins
4. Alex Gordon
5. Adrian Beltre
6. Hank Blalock
7. Joe Crede
8. Mike Lowell - DL
9. Evan Longoria
10. Kevin Youkilis
…
If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.
