Manny, the DH, and Choosing Between Garret Anderson or Steve Garvey: The Weight of 3000 Hits

Are 3000 hits an automatic ticket to Cooperstown?

Last June, when Craig Biggio collected his 3000^th hit, pundits and old timers heralded it as the last time it will be done without the benefit of the DH, or the “hard way.” Even though he did play twenty games at DH, and the same people said this when Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. did it, it is hard to imagine it with free agency, and interleague play.

Carl Yastrzemski, Rod Carew, Robin Yount, George Brett, Dave Winfield, Eddie Murray, Paul Molitor and Wade Boggs all benefited mightily from the DH. It is hard to play into your forties without spending some time as a DH. Now, this generation is facing baseball’s equivalent to the old folks’ home. Looking at the active leaders, Gary Sheffield has already played a lot as a DH, and if Barry Bonds or Ken Griffey Jr. are going to get that 3000^th hit it will be as a DH.

Looking further down the active list, Manny Ramirez has said he wants to play six more seasons for Boston, and then retire as a Red Sox. Ramirez says lots of things, but judging by his great start, and his new found dedication to some Eastern philosophy, and off-season conditioning, maybe we can believe what he says. Ramirez playing six more seasons (including this one, until 2014) might seem lofty, but with six more seasons one can assume he would easily have 3,000 hits and nearly 700 home runs, putting him in a canonized crowd.

Ramirez is in the last year of his $160 million, eight-year contract. The Red Sox have options to extend that for 2009 and 2010 at $20 million each. Ramirez sounds confident Boston will sign him to a four-year deal after that, which would keep him with the team until age 42. He has said he wants to spend six more years with David Ortiz, and retire together as a tandem. Many questions arise as they always do with the outfielder.

Another 35-year-old outfielder is also nearing the end of a contract and facing an option year.

Next fall, the Angels must decide whether to pick up Garret Anderson’s $14-million option for 2009, or buy it out for $3 million. Anderson is a three time All-Star who averaged 30 HRs and 120 RBIs from 2000 to 2003. A player who seemed to be nearing the end after hip, foot, leg and back injuries had slowed him down. He played only 108 games last season, and was absent during the teams’ playoff loss with an eye injury, but what happened during those 108 games was encouraging. Anderson hit .305 with 13 home runs and 65 RBIs in 67 games after the All-Star break, including a 10-RBI day on August 21.

What does this have to do with Manny Ramirez hitting 3000? Well that and many other questions abound from these two outfielders. Ramirez was raised in New York City, but born in the Dominican Republic on May 30, 1972. Anderson, a west coast kid, was born one month later June 30, 1972, and raised in Los Angeles. Though Ramirez got to the majors a year earlier, both players finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting in their respective years. The two players that won the awards in 1994 and 1995 were the forgettable Marty Cordova and Bob Hamelin who played a combined 1449 games.

Manny Ramirez would probably be a Hall of Famer if he retired tomorrow (nothing would ever surprise me), but Garret Anderson’s name is not usually mentioned in the same sentence with “Hall of Famer.” Entering 2008, the two 35-year-old outfielders’ hit totals were very similar: Ramirez 2209, Anderson 2205. Now the safe bet would probably be that neither player will get to 3000 hits, but many questions are left?

Can Ramirez get to 3000 hits?

If the scenario that Manny has endorsed happens, you’d think it would be hard. Supporters would say that his arm, and knowledge of the green monster can overcome any defensive shortcomings, but playing at least five more healthy years, which is what it would probably take to get 791 hits, would seem to be impossible for a contending team without a lot time as the designated hitter. If Manny wants to retire alongside Ortiz, they’ll need the American League to pass a rule, adding an extra DH.

Can the Red Sox survive with Ramirez in left field in his late thirties?

Six-time gold glove winner Carl Yastrzemski is revered not just in New England, but all over the country as the best defensive left fielder prior to Barry Bonds, and some old timers insist he still is. Yaz played over 100 games in left only once after the age of 31. Manny has already played four seasons after the age of 31 in left, and this year will be number five. For Boston to survive, you’d think either Ortiz or Manny would have to go.

Without Ortiz will Ramirez’s euphoria last in Boston?

Psychological analysis aside, it doesn’t seem like Manny is the type of player to be as eager to put in the preparation if either he or Ortiz is gone, and Boston management doesn’t seem hesitant to move sentimental favorites to play younger talents. Their sentiment in competing with the Yankees has always been not letting the team get as old as the Yankees have.

Does Ramirez walk too much to get enough hits?

Hard to tell, but the players most similar to Ramirez, didn’t play as regularly in their late thirties, as they did in their early thirties. With the exception of Barry Bonds, all the players most similar to Ramirez at the age of 35, had some incomplete years, but the full years they did have seem to have as many hits and walks as they did in their early thirties. Manny Ramirez’s best season for hits age 30 -34 was 2003 when he had 185 hits and 97 walks. Last year at age 35 he had 143 hits and 71 walks.

Player	Year	Age	30-34 best	Year	Age	34-39 best
Ken Griffey Jr.	2000	30	141 H 94 BB	2007	37	146 H 85 BB
Jeff Bagwell *	2000	32	183 H 107 BB	2003	35	168 H 88 BB
Frank Robinson **	1966	30	182 H 87 BB	1973	37	142 H 82 BB
Barry Bonds	1998	33	167 H 130 BB	2001	36	156 H 177 BB
Frank Thomas	2000	32	191 H 112 BB	2007	39	147 H 81BB

* retired at 37, ** was player-manager 1975-76

How do Ramirez and Anderson compare with the last 3000 hitters?

The last six players to get their 3000th hit, represent a nice cross-section: slappy, lefty, opposite field hitters- Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs, power lead-off hitters, base stealers- Rickey Henderson, and Craig Biggio, middle of the order run producers, one left-handed, one right-handed- Cal Ripken Jr., and Rafael Palmeiro. Only Ripken and Gwynn had more hits entering a season at age 35, and Ramirez and Anderson are right on pace with Ripken in their early 30s.

Player	3000 Age	Hits at 35	Avg. 30-34	Avg. 35-39
Tony Gwynn	39Y 90D	2204	170.0	172.6
Wade Boggs	41Y 53D	2098	184.0	140.4
Cal Ripken Jr.	39Y 105D	2371	163.8	139.8
Rickey Henderson	42Y 280D	2139	136.8	107.8
Rafael Palmeiro	40Y 264D	2158	175.0	152.8
Craig Biggio	41Y 168D	1969	172.8	165.2
Manny Ramirez	NA	2166	163.8	NA
Garret Anderson	NA	2181	168.8	NA

Is there a possibility Anderson will get 3000, and Ramirez won’t?

I think it is just as possible as the reverse. The difference being that Manny has said it is a goal for him, and he has other attributes that will keep him in baseball. If Anderson can not stick with the Angels, then he will probably have to be comfortable bouncing from team to team as a DH-for-hire in the twilight of his career. Also the players most similar to Anderson at age 35, according to baseball-reference.com, don’t show a lot of promise that Anderson can get there. There are four players with a 900 score or above in comparability to Anderson. Al Oliver and Steve Garvey didn’t play a game after their 38^th birthday, (both had more hits entering their age 36 season) and Harold Baines and Dave Parker only had two seasons combined of over 150 hits after their 35^th birthdays. These players averaged 530.2 hits per season after the age Anderson is now, and he is still 795 hits away entering this season.

Player	Hits at 35	Hits after 35	Total Hits	Games at DH
Harold Baines	2156	710	2866	1644
Steve Garvey	2257	342	2599	0
Al Oliver	2362	381	2743	200
Dave Parker	2024	688	2712	484
Garrett Anderson	2205	NA	NA	183

Could Garret Anderson get to 3000 hits and not get elected to the Hall of Fame?

The question to ask, is would any of these four players be elected had they gotten 3000 hits? It’s hard to know what those extra years would have looked like. Would they have been Julio Franco 45-year-old pinch-hitters getting 40 hits a year? One would think that Dave Parker would be in had he gotten 280 more hits. His resume includes an MVP, seven all-stars, two batting titles, three gold gloves, 339 HRs, 1493 RBIs, and two world championships.

Harold Baines has the most hits of any player not in the Hall of Fame without getting to 3000. He got really close; one would think he could of found a team to hang around with for two or three years to pinch hit and spot start for. But Harold Baines, with 136 more hits, still doesn’t look like a Hall of Famer.

The 1940 Cincinnati Reds were the oldest team to win a World Series, and not have a player in the Hall of Fame, until Ernie Lombardi was inducted in 1986. They’ve been replaced by the 1981 Los Angeles Dodgers. The 2002 California Angels, barring long and successful careers from John Lackey or Francisco Rodriguez, could be another one of these teams. The veterans committee of the Hall of Fame seems to fill the role of creating symmetry to inductees, inducting missed players, players under appreciated by their era, or reaching out to an undeserving player, to fill a need at position, era, or to emphasize a story or a team. Garrett Anderson with or without 3000 hits could be treated kindly by history; voters years from now looking to put a player from that team in, looking at his hit total. Tommy Lasorda has been inducted into the Hall of Fame, and maybe this is good enough for the voters, or there may eventually be a similar search for this team. All eight of their starters were all-stars, including Garvey, and Anderson’s manager Mike Scioscia, as well as having former stars Reggie Smith and Rick Monday on the bench, and six pitchers who had at least 150 career wins, two of them with 200 career wins, and 5 of them with 20-win seasons to their credit. This team was the mecca of “great career/not a Hall of Famer.”

Luis Gonzalez will be 41 before the season is over, and is within 500 of 3000 hits, and playing in the National League. He is likely to get traded at the trade deadline from the Marlins, if he can prove he can still hit. Gonzalez has only 26 games as a DH in his career, and right now he seems like he would not be a Hall of Famer even if he got to 3000 hits, but if he could catch on as a DH in the American League? It would probably take him at least four years to get 500 hits, but as anemic as he looked last season, in that time he could easily also get 50 Hrs, and 250 RBIs, putting him over 3000 hits, 400 Hrs, and 1650 RBIs, three milestones Dave Parker never got to; couple those numbers with the replaying every October of a certain bloop single off a certain team, off a certain closer, and maybe you’re looking at a Hall of Famer. Gonzalez is also twentieth all time in doubles, and just 50 more doubles would put him ahead of Hank Aaron for tenth all-time.

Anderson’s chances of reaching 3000 hits is still a long shot, teetering on how many more seasons he can play, and how much of a contributor he is for those seasons. The fact that he can still play the field with some skill now, and has the DH to fall back upon will be key. If he can play at a certain level for five more seasons, and average 140 hits, 25 HRs, 80 RBIs, and 25 doubles, he would be ending the 2013 season with 2915 hits, 382 HRs, 1608 RBIs, and 587 doubles- still, borderline numbers.

This all may be moot if the voters set a precedent, and keep out Rafael Palmeiro. Punishing him for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs could ripple the automatic election of 3000 hitters, and change even more the definition of a Hall of Famer.