Bourn To Run

With the opportunity to become an everyday player in 2008, Houston’s Michael Bourn may also have an opportunity to become the first player in 20 years to steal 80 bases and join a club that has only added 18 members since 1916.

While the 100-steal milestone has become a mark that is no longer realistically achievable, many players have flirted with the 80-steal mark. Most notably, last season Mets’ short stop Jose Reyes came very close, falling just 2 steals short of 80 after failing to steal a base in the last 15 games of the season. But even slowed by a groin injury that has kept him out of the lineup since Monday, Bourn is the league major leader in steals with 13 through 24 games.

Thanks to an offseason trade that sent Houston’s Brad Lidge to Philadelphia for the talented outfielder buried on the Phillies’ depth chart along with Geoff Geary, Bourn now has been handed the opportunity to be an everyday major league leadoff hitter for the Astros. Now many are wondering, can Bourn break the barrier that no base runner has been able to bust through since Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman both did it in 1988?

Bourn Is Tough To Throw Out

Bourn’s 13 steals in 13 tries to open the season is impressive (he’s only the third major leaguer to accomplish the feat) and he’s stolen 17 in a row dating back to last year. His career .914 stolen base % is the best amongst all players with 30 steals since 1957. Actually, Bourn hasn’t been caught stealing since July 25, 2007. If this seems like a fluke, Bourn stole 164 bases in 192 tries in his four seasons in the minors.

Bourn Has Shown The Ability To Get On Base

While Bourn’s slow start has been deceptive, he’s hitting an unspectacular .216 with a .310 OBP in 84 plate appearances in 2008. However, looking back at his entire professional career, Bourn has shown signs of being a solid hitter and, at the very least, has a good eye at the plate. Last year, in limited duty with the Phillies, Bourn hit .277 with a .348 OBP. Prior to getting to the majors, Bourn hit .284 with a .377 OBP. While it’s easy to panic when an unproven player struggles at the plate out of the gate, manager Cecil Cooper’s patience with Hunter Pence already paid off. Pence was hitting .161 after April 16^th but Cooper kept him in the lineup and since then Pence has hit safely in 8 straight games going 14-for-29 and has raised his average to .271.

Bourn Is A Gifted Fielder

While Bourn has not delivered at the plate, he has been invaluable in the field. While Cooper’s patience may grow thin if Bourn can’t get on base more that might only cause Bourn to move out of the leadoff spot. Bourn’s glove patrolling the spacious center field of Minute Maid Park will keep him somewhere in the lineup should his bat not get up to speed with his fleet feet.

Bourn’s Playing Style Makes Him More Prone To Injury

Bourn’s already missed some time with a groin injury. Last season, he was injured making a tough play in the field when he took a tumble over the bullpen area in foul ground and spent some time on the disabled list. While last year’s injury was somewhat of a fluke and this year’s time missed may have been extended to be extra cautious, it’s still concerning. Even Bourn acknowledged that staying healthy is a priority while nursing his groin injury.

Bourn And The “Threat Index”

While there are a number of statistics and sabermetrics out there to rate players, one area that I couldn’t find an accurate measurement of is how dangerous a player is if he is able to reach base. So, I’ve developed a metric called the Threat Index (TI). For the numbers crunchers out there, here’s the formula:

The higher a player’s TI, the more frequently they successfully steal a base when reaching base. This differentiates a player like Vince Coleman who was torrid on the basepaths and Rickey Henderson who stole as many bases but also reached base more often than Coleman. From 1944 to 2007, 201 players have stolen 50 or more bases. In order to see what Bourn’s early performance might indicate, here is a look at the averages amongst players who have stolen more than 50 bases.

Looking at this chart, it shows that, on average, as a player’s Threat Index drops, the likelihood of that player stealing bases diminishes. And while it is possible to fall short of a mark even with a high TI, no player has ever had a TI above 6 and stolen less than 70 bases. So, where’s Bourn so far this season? He currently sits at a TI of 7.222 which would be the highest TI in the last 64 years. While it’s easy to dismiss the number because of how early it is in the season, Bourn’s American League counterpart Carlos Gomez’s TI is 5.814. Here are the top 10 TI numbers from 1944-2007 along with Bourn and Gomez’s 2008 numbers:

Bourn “Knows” He Can’t Steal 100 But Does He Believe He Can Steal 80?

Early on in ’08, the question has come up a number of times. Bourn has been asked if he can steal 100. During his return to Philadelphia, Bourn joked that if he stole 100 bases his “legs may stop working.” The Humble, Texas native has been humble when discussing his base running prowess. He’s on record stating he expects to slow down. On stealing 100, Bourn said in a USA Today story, “I’ll wear myself out if I do. It will be hard trying to play center and lead off and hit and steal bases. I’m not going to limit myself, but I won’t keep that pace. I know it.”

Maybe Bourn doesn’t know that most of the players that have stolen 80 or more bases have rarely had their best stolen base performance in their first 27 games:

In the end, it is going to take a solid season from Bourn, something he hasn’t done at the big league level nor has he been given the opportunity. If Bourn can stay healthy and raise his On Base Percentage, in September, baseball fans might be treated to the breaking of a barrier that has not been touched in over 20 years.