Roto Chronicles: American League – April 28

The Indians’ C.C. Sabathia rebounds in a big way….

A week ago today, the baseball world was in awe of how bad C.C. Sabathia’s start to 2008 had been, he had an ERA of 13.50, had walked 11 batters and served up 26 hits in his first 12 2/3 innings. It was the worst start to a season from a defending Cy Young winner after three starts in the history of the game. Was he injured, thinking about the contract issue or was it just a mechanical lapse? We found our answer in less than a week. Sabathia had two starts this week against the Royals and Yankees. He pitched 14 combined innings, allowing only one run, striking out 19, and only allowing 11 batters to reach base. It was just a terrible stretch blown out of proportion for a player who does have immense pressure on him to perform. It was easily his worst of his career. It is now over and C.C. Sabathia is again a must play for all fantasy owners from here forward. I bet there are fantasy owners out there right now screaming mad at themselves for selling way too quick.

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Carl Crawford, OF – TB (UP) After a relatively slow first couple of weeks, Carl Crawford is on fire. He was in the midst of a 12-game hitting streak before going hitless Saturday. His average now stands at .300 along with two home runs and eight stolen bases. Also, he has cut down drastically on his strikeout percentage, from 19.2% to 12.7%. This is great news for a ground ball hitting speedster like Crawford. He will be putting the ball in play and getting on base more. He may once again raise his yearly batting average even further. He has already done so five straight years.

• Jacoby Ellsbury, OF – BOS (UP) Ellsbury had his first multi-home run game on Tuesday night against the Angels, giving him three home runs on the season. This goes along with a .280 batting average and eight stolen bases. He is quickly becoming a force in the American League. He is now playing everyday, whether it be in left, center or right as the Red Sox are still working in Coco Crisp in center field. Ellsbury’s average will likely stay around the .290-.300 mark and steal a ton of bases, but don’t count on this sudden power surge to continue. He is a ground ball hitter.

• Josh Hamilton, OF – TEX (UP) In his first chance as an everyday regular, Josh Hamilton is proving that he does belong. Hamilton is leading the league in RBI with 27, and is in the top ten in total bases, hits, doubles and home runs. Another positive sign is his consistency. He has not gone more than one game without a base hit. It is only a matter of time before the home runs start flying out of Ameriquest Field in Texas as the summer heat settles in. Even though his value is rising, he should be viewed as a buy candidate; at this pace he will be a top 10-15 player by the end of the season.

• Carlos Gomez, OF – MIN (DOWN) The Twins’ speedster has quickly fallen out of favor of many fantasy fans over the past couple of weeks with his on-base percentage dwindling down to .271 and having only stolen one base since April 16th. He also has a putrid K-to-BB ratio of 24 to 2. The Twins may begin looking at lowering him to the bottom of the order until he can begin getting on base consistently. With no other current offensive value to offer, he may be worth sitting on your bench for the foreseeable future.

• Travis Hafner, DH – CLE (DOWN) The “Pronk” era of 2004-2006, when Travis Hafner was one of the elite sluggers in the game, is fading away fast. He is now battling a shoulder problem and pitchers are beginning to challenge him more and more as they have become less afraid. His walks percentage is down to 12.9% of at-bats, strikeouts are up to 25.8% and he is still having problems hitting for power as his isolated power, slugging percentage minus batting average, is down to .140. At this point there is no reason to expect anything more than his stat line of last year, which was .266 average with 24 home runs and 100 RBI.

• Carlos Pena, 1B - TB (DOWN) Will the real Carlos Pena please stand up? This is exactly why I stayed away, you just don’t know what you’re going to get with him. He is still hitting home runs at a great rate, currently six home runs in 80 at-bats, but he hasn’t hit one since April 12^th and his batting average has plummeted to .200. Part of it is a spike in strikeouts, part of it is bad luck with a .232 BABIP, and part is an increase in ground balls hit. If he should straighten out any of this he should be okay, but to think he will come close to 2007 is looking more and more like a stretch.

Pitchers

• Brian Bannister, SP - KC (UP) Bannister had and still has his share of doubters, but he is outsmarting the competition and staying one step ahead. He has three quality starts and has allowed more than two runs only once in five games. His record now stands at 3-2 with a 2.48 ERA . Bannister lost a duel to the streaking Cliff Lee his last time out, allowing two runs on four hits to a resurgent Indians lineup. He will get two starts this week against the Angels and Orioles.

• Cliff Lee, SP – CLE (UP) What can be said of this magical start? Lee is 4-0 and with a minuscule 0.28 ERA. He is showing an uncanny command of the strike zone getting unprecedented strikeout totals, 29, and has only walked two batters in 31 2/3 innings of work. This is sure to not last much longer, but we may be witnessing a rebirth of the Cliff Lee of old, who was a Cy Young contender in 2005. Indians fans just hope when this streak ends it is not the Cliff Lee of 2007.

• Ervin Santana, SP – LAA (UP) How soon we forget that Santana won 16 games with a solid 4.28 ERA as a 24-year old in 2006 before his terrible 2007. After holding down the vaunted Tigers offense to just three runs in a victory Friday night, Santana’s record stands at 4-0 with a 2.97 ERA. He is stepping up to help fill the void left by Lackey and Escobar and is looking like a solid number two starter for a contending team.

• Jeremy Bonderman, SP – DET (DOWN) Something is wrong here, Bonderman has walked 21 batters in 27 1/3 innings. In his last two starts, he had a six-walk night and a seven-walk night in a combined 9 2/3 innings. Besides this, Bonderman’s stats have been right in line with norms, but the fact remains that he is recovering from a late season elbow injury, which may be a cause for the command issues and a concern going forward.

• Francisco Liriano, SP – MIN (DOWN) Well, the first attempt at the comeback has been a failure as Liriano has had trouble with his command along with decreased velocity. He walked a total of 13 batters in 10 2/3 innings with a 11.32 ERA before his demotion back to AAA Rochester Friday. He will likely stay there for the foreseeable future as he tries to right himself and continue his recovery. Unless you have excessive bench spots on your roster, it is worth jumping ship and finding other help. Even when he returns, he will likely not be the same dominant pitcher of 2006.

• Dustin McGowan, SP – TOR (DOWN) A sleeper pick coming into 2008 with his great ground ball stats and ability to strike out batters, McGowan has not yet lived up to those expectations. He is 1-2 and has a 4.18 ERA, but has a 1.71 WHIP, allowed 16 walks in 28 innings and is experiencing a 10% decrease in ground balls induced. He is, however, still striking out over seven batters per nine innings and has experienced some bad luck with balls in play, thus he is worth keeping on your roster. If the command issues continue, he will be one who starts getting dropped by owners and would be a recommended low cost option.

INJURY REPORT

Indians starter, Jake Westbrook, injured his left intercostal muscle in his ribs during his last start in Minnesota. Recovery time will be between two to four weeks. Westbrook was off to a solid start to the season with four quality starts and looked to be a good back of the rotation option….You can probably drop him for the time being and pick up a similar type stat line from another waiver wire pitcher. He will most likely remain there until he is re-activated.

Rangers’ third baseman Hank Blalock and shortstop Michael Young each suffered hamstring strains over the weekend that will likely sideline each through at least Tuesday…with both of them going down at once, one of them is likely to head to the DL if they need the full recovery time or not; the Rangers will need that roster spot. As of Sunday night, Hank Blalock is the one rumored to be headed to the disabled list.

The Yankees will be without catcher Jorge Posada for awhile; an MRI revealed a tear in his shoulder that has been giving him problems and had relegated him to DH for seven games….No timetable has been established as of yet, assuming you have room on the your DL, I’d stash him until further analysis is done. There are other solid catchers on the waiver wire such as Dionner Navarro who can fill in on your roster.

Barring any problems in his last rehab start, Scott Kazmir is set to return to the rotation on Saturday to face the Red Sox. In two starts in A-ball, spanning 7 2/3 innings, he has allowed four runs on eight hits and struck out seven batters without a walk allowed….I would recommend leaving him on the bench however for at least this first start against a tough opponent to see what happens before playing him.

Mike Lowell will return to the Red Sox lineup this week after rehabbing his sprained left thumb…he is a solid play upon returning. He went 1-5 with two RBI in his first rehab start Friday night for Pawtucket.

Another returnee from injury this week will be Angel’s second baseman Howie Kendrick. He is eligible to be activated on Tuesday from a strained hamstring that had sidelined him…Sean Rodriguez will likely be sent back to Salt Lake to make room. Kendrick is a must play upon returning.

Finally, Gary Sheffield continues to have problems in his shoulder. He received a second cortisone shot, but continues to feel a pinching and is frustrated at the situation….If you happened to have him on your roster, try to find a willing trade partner soon. Before too long, Sheffield may end up on the disabled list. Even if he stays off, his power has been non-existent with a .254 SLG%.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Mark Ellis, 2B – OAK Seemingly always undervalued, Mark Ellis is once again performing as a solid middle infield option. He has supplied his few owners with two home runs, 11 RBI and three stolen bases. His batting average may stand at .236, but this is partly due to a low .247 BABIP. His career mark is .299. Assuming he gets back to around that number, you will have a .285 hitter, with potential for 15-20 home runs and 80 RBI. Plus, it has been rumored that he may be a trade target later in the season, and moving away from McAfee Coliseum would only add to his power potential.

• Michael Cuddyer, OF – MIN Cuddyer was activated from the disabled list Friday and was inserted back into the lineup batting third. He responded by hitting a three-run homer Saturday night. He was dropped by many owners during his time on the disabled list and is owned in about half of fantasy leagues. He will not be a pickup who will win your fantasy league, but having a guy who can hit 20 home runs with a solid average is always nice to have. If only the Twins could find a leadoff hitter to get on-base consistently in front of the trio of Mauer, Cuddyer and Morneau. There would surely be more RBIs to be had.

• Nate Robertson, SP – DET His numbers may not look pretty. He currently stands at 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA, but Nate Robertson has been the victim of some early season bad luck. Even with an improved K-to-BB ratio which stands at a solid 3.42, Robertson has had an unlucky .392 BABIP and 57.9 LOB%, which will come back to norms and lower his ERA. His Fielding Independent ERA is also a solid 3.87. With the Tigers great offensive run support, Robertson could get back to his 2006 numbers and win 13 or more games.

• Chad Gaudin, SP – OAK A change to Gaudin’s delivery may be paying dividends as he is off to a strong start with a 2-1 record and a 3.38 ERA. What has been impressive is his continued decrease in walks. This is the third straight season of improvement as he is giving up 2.25 BB/9 as compared to 4.52 in 2007, and 5.91 in 2006. He is also enjoying a third straight season of increased strikeouts, now standing at 7.13 K/9. With these improvements, his Fielding Independent ERA is only 3.25.

FUTURES MARKET

Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia was promoted Friday night from AAA Oklahoma where he was hitting .291 with two home runs and 13 RBI. He went one for three in his debut Saturday with two walks and two strikeouts. It now looks like he should have been up from the start as journeyman first baseman Ben Broussard is only hitting .173, and catcher Gerald Laird has struggled until the past week raising his average to .269, but both will lose time to Saltalamacchia. Be wary of his 72% contact rate as that does not project well for a solid average, but he does have good power potential in a hitter’s ballpark.

Jays’ outfield prospect, Travis Snider was promoted to AA New Hampshire after hitting .279 with four home runs in Dunedin. However, in his first week at New Hampshire Snider is 3 for 21 with 12 strikeouts. This makes 34 total strikeouts in 82 at-bats combined to start the year.

Indians’ top prospect, Adam Miller, made his debut Wednesday night for AAA Buffalo. He pitched five innings giving up three unearned runs on four hits and struck out two batters. Not a bad outing for his first time back out after suffering through blister problems in spring training.

One of the only Tigers’ prospects left after this past winter, Rick Porcello is off to a great start to his professional career. His record shows 1-4, but that does not represent his solid start. He has been dazzling and has a fine 2.13 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings. What has been most impressive is that he is getting 68% ground balls.

At some point this season, Radhames Liz will likely be called up to the Orioles. He is a power pitcher who can rack up some K’s, but like Daniel Cabrera has had some command issues in the past. On Thursday night Liz had his best outing of the year, going seven innings and giving up one run on three hits and striking out ten. For the season however, he is now 0-2 with a 5.81 ERA.

The White Sox now look like they knew what they were doing when keeping Joe Crede on the team out of spring training. As we all know, he is off to a great start, but the man left behind is struggling to consistently put the ball into play in AAA. Josh Fields is batting .276, but has 27 strikeouts in 76 at-bats for a contact rate of only 64%. He will have a tough time keeping any sort of batting average with that rate, but his decrease in power to start the year is odd. His slugging percentage is only .434.

Another pitcher we will most likely see in the near future is Kei Igawa. The Yankee millionaire is having a terrific campaign in AAA. He is 2-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings pitched. With Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes struggling without any wins, this may be a move we see in the near future. It may even be to the bullpen to start as a long reliever, but his fine 4.83 K/BB ratio looks really nice to pass up in the rotation. Now that Igawa has settled into playing in the United States, this time might be different.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

• Buy – John Lackey, SP – LAA All signs are pointing to a successful return from his triceps injury that has sidelined Lackey since the middle of March. His value is probably at its lowest point right now and you might be able to find a nervous owner who will bite on a player who has started above expectations. Lackey threw two innings in Single-A Thursday night allowing one run, but striking out five. He will work on going deeper into the games during his upcoming rehab starts before being activated in the middle of May.

• Sell – Cliff Lee, SP – CLE As much as I have loved his historical start to 2008, his value is nearing a peak. Yes, he may continue this run and have a career-type season, but do you really want to chance it? If you are deep in pitching on your roster, try and trade him for a top offensive player whose value may be down like a Robinson Cano or Joe Mauer and see what happens. You may catch an owner drooling over the possibilities of adding Lee.

RANKING OF THE WEEK - TOP 20 AL ELIGIBLE OUTFIELDERS

1. B.J. Upton
2. Vladimir Guererro
3. Carl Crawford
4. Manny Ramirez
5. Nick Markakis
6. Alex Rios
7. Bobby Abreu
8. Grady Sizemore
9. Ichiro Suzuki
10. Magglio Ordonez
11. Vernon Wells
12. Curtis Granderson
13. Torii Hunter
14. Josh Hamilton
15. Johnny Damon
16. Hideki Matsui
17. Nick Swisher
18. Raul Ibanez
19. Jacoby Ellsbury
20. Delmon Young

…

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.