Everybody’s Talking About the Rays (And With Good Reason)
It appears the Tampa Bay Rays may finally be on their way to draining the swamp the organization has been mired in since its inception in 1998. For the record the Rays have won 70 games once in their 10 seasons, even with Lou Piniella at the helm for three of those seasons. Maybe there was something to that whole Devil thing after all.
The Rays, it appears, have finally found the young talent they’ve been searching for all these years, and they finally have an owner who’s willing to spend a little bit to keep it. Or more accurately, Sweet Lou should have exercised a little patience while the talent ripened. Piniella’s departure after the 2005 season because of ownership’s unwillingness to spend money coincided with the takeover by a group led by Stuart Sternberg. Sternberg’s group has since overseen an overhaul of the Rays’ mode of operation. The Rays have followed the model set forth by the likes of the Red Sox and the Athletics, replacing gut feelings with hard data and statistical analysis. So far, Rays’ management has been content to keep the team largely intact, but two big moves in the past off-season have helped the Rays turn the corner. The trades of Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young to Washington and Minnesota, respectively, enabled the Rays to rid themselves of two talented but troubled players.
But for the most part the duo of Andrew Friedman and Gerry Hunsicker have kept a young team largely intact. Friedman is a former Wall Street analyst who has brought his sense of statistical analysis to baseball. Hunsicker is a well-known baseball executive with decades of experience, most notably as general manager of the Houston Astros from 1996 to 2006. Among the players drafted before the arrival of Sternberg, Friedman and Hunsicker, are starting pitcher James Shields, All-Star outfielder Carl Crawford, outfielder B.J. Upton, catcher Shawn Riggans and DH/1B Jonny Gomes. Around this core they have added closer Troy Percival, starter Matt Garza (acquired in the Young trade) and 2006 draft choice Evan Longoria.
On the field the results are beginning to come in. The team finished April with a record of 14-12, which put them near the top of the AL East. The 13 games the club won in April are the most in Rays’ history. The team won their last 7 out of 8, including 6 in a row. That schedule hasn’t been larded with creampuffs either; the Rays have taken on the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Orioles and the White Sox.
While the hitting has been middle of the pack in the AL, the pitching staff has been outstanding so far. The team’s ERA of 3.68 ranks second in the league, and the 215 hits allowed is first. The Rays have stayed out of big innings so far this year by limiting walks (88, 5th fewest in the AL) and home runs (3rd fewest). The starting rotation has been anchored by Shields, who has a 3-1 record and a 2.54 ERA. He’s managed to win despite seven unearned runs the Rays have allowed during his starts. He’s done this with pinpoint control, issuing only 9 walks in 39 innings pitched. Behind Shields are four guys trying desperately not to be the odd man out when ace Scott Kazmir returns from the DL on Sunday against the Red Sox. Edwin Jackson is 2-2 with an ERA of 3.86. Jackson is coming off a dreadful 2007 in which he went 5-15 and had an ERA of almost six, thanks largely to the nearly five walks per nine innings he issued last season. This season, the walks are only down to 4.75 per nine, but he’s allowing far fewer hits (6.82 per nine) and only two home runs. But we all know that walking hitters is a disaster waiting to happen. The man with the best record on the staff is Andy Sonnanstine. Last night Sonnanstine shut down the Orioles to run his record to 4-1. However, it’s a deceptive 4-1 as his ERA is 4.42 thanks to the five home runs he’s allowed so far. But his WHIP(1.16) and his 8 walks in 38.2 innings make a strong case for his staying in the rotation. Fourth starter Jason Hammel is also 2-2, with an ERA of 4.88. Like Jackson, Hammel is walking hitters at an alarming rate, 12 so far in 27.2 innings. The right-handed Garza seems to be the most obvious candidate for either a demotion or the bullpen. Garza has struggled with arm trouble, spending two weeks in April on the DL. He has no decisions so far in three starts and an ERA of 7.62 in 13 innings. The Rays’ decision on who stays and who goes will literally come down to how good these guys do in their final starts before Kazmir’s debut on Sunday.
While the rotation is in flux, Tampa’s bullpen has been rock solid. I seem to write this every week, but good bullpens are the reason for many teams’ hot starts. The Rays are led by veteran closer Troy Percival, who has rejuvenated himself in the Florida sunshine. In nine innings this season, Percival has yet to allow a run and has converted all five of his save opportunities. J.P. Howell leads the bullpen in innings, having worked 16.2 so far with an ERA of 3.24. Veteran journeyman Dan Wheeler also had a good April, pitching 13 innings with an ERA of 1.38. These three have combined to allow just 23 hits and 8 walks. Scott Dohrmann and Gary Glover have also contributed solid innings.
At the plate, the Rays have been plagued by their free-swinging ways, with the third most strikeouts in the AL. The club is also 2nd with 26 stolen bases, though the 14 times they’ve been caught stealing leads the league. Leading the way is the do-everything Crawford, who’s batting .296 with 7 extra base hits. Crawford leads the league in his specialty, the triple, with three. He also has 14 RBI, has scored 24 times and is 8/9 in steals. Outfielder B.J. Upton has 20 RBI to go along with an OBP of .384 and four steals. Eric Hinske has slugged .639 so far with an OBP of .407 and six home runs. And finally everyone’s favorite call-up, Evan Longoria, has slugged .527 and has an OBP of .388 in his 17 games so far. His 3 home runs and 10 RBIs are a welcome addition to a team that has lacked power. A major disappointment at the plate so far has been 1B Carlos Pena, who has been flirting with the Mendoza Line all season and has struck out 31 times. Still, his 6 home runs and 13 RBIs have to be encouraging. The club is also happy to have slugging catcher Dioner Navarro back from the DL. Navarro has 12 hits in 30 at-bats so far this year.
In the field the Rays have proved themselves to be their own worst enemy so far. They seem to especially like making Shields’ life miserable, having allowed 7 unearned runs during his starts. The team has given up 11 unearned for the whole season, third most in the AL. However, Pena, Crawford, Navarro and 2B Akinori Iwamura have yet to commit an error this season, so at least the team is solid up the middle.
It’s apparently easy to see the Rays going .500 this season, since nearly everyone everywhere has predicted just that. Working for them is the return of Kazmir, who should combine with Shields to form a potent one-two at the top of the rotation. Having those two going well will give the bullpen a chance to prop the rotation up on the other three days. If a solid number-three starter emerges, so much the better. Working against Tampa this season is its division. Not only are the Red Sox and Yankees there, but the Orioles are competing with the Rays for most improved. Also working against the Rays is the lack of power. So far Hinske leads the team in home runs. He hasn’t hit more than 20 since his rookie year in 2002. Pena and Longoria should help in this department, although Tampa is definitely a team that will rely on speed. More ominous, however, is the fact that the team is last in the AL in doubles. Somehow, the team has all the bad of a power-hitting team (193 strikeouts), without the good. The Rays will be better, no doubt about it, but they’re still a year away.
