Roto Chronicles: American League – May 5

2008’s first wave of impact rookies make debuts….

You would think that we were in the first week of September with the way big time prospects have been called up in the past couple of weeks. In the American League alone, guys like Nick Adenhart, Wladimir Balentien, Jeff Clement, Luke Hochevar, Aaron Laffey, Adam Lind, Garrett Olson, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Brandon Wood have all been promoted to fill roster needs. Each are in their own situation, with some most likely headed back down after the regulars get healthy, but a substantial portion have been brought up to produce now. Seattle, who had been struggling offensively with Brad Wilkerson in right field and Jose Vidro at DH, brought both Balentien and Clement to fill in for those positions, respectively. Others likely to stick around are Adam Lind and Saltalamacchia.

These call-ups always present challenges to fantasy owners in deciding which ones will be the right player to add. Will their minor league track record translate and present better numbers than your drop player this season? There is no doubt that their potentials are likely higher, but it is not always the right move. Pay attention to their playing time upon call-up (Brandon Wood not getting many at-bats), what positions they are eligible for and what they might become eligible for (Clement at utility with catcher probability), how fast they shot through the system (Adenhart only has five starts at Triple-A) and the amount of success at the highest level of play (Balentien was in his second season at Triple-A and had shown solid power, speed and an improving eye). All are factors in making this decision, though, there is always that one player who flies through the minors with the stats and tempts you, and who will succeed, but for the most part try to look at the whole situation rather than just the hype before falling into the prospect trap.

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Erik Aybar, SS – LAA (UP) Undrafted in many preseason drafts, Aybar is now owned in a healthy 93.4% of ESPN leagues. He has taken over the full-time shortstop job from Maicer Izturis and has a .298 batting average with a home run and five stolen bases. He was thought to be superior to Izturis on defense, but is now proving his career minor league batting average of .311 may be no fluke. His main value for fantasy will come from his potential for stolen bases, which has been a bit of a problem as his success rate has only been 60%. If Aybar and the Angels can work through this, he could develop potential for 30-35 stolen bases and be a solid option at shortstop on your team.

• Magglio Ordonez, OF – DET (UP) After a relatively slow start for Ordonez, he has really picked it up of late. He has four home runs and 16 RBI in his last 12 games and has raised his batting average back over .300. This seems to be the trend with many of the Tigers’ offensive players over the past week or two, we all knew it was only a matter of time before their bats woke up. Look for Ordonez to finish the season similar to last season, just without the escalated batting average and a few less RBI.

• Placido Polanco, 2B – DET (UP) Things were looking grim for Polanco a few weeks ago as he struggled under .150 and was experiencing back problems. He has now worked through the issues and luck is back on his side. Polanco’s batting average has crept back up to .250 and he hit two home runs against the Yankees Wednesday night for his first two jacks of the season. His BABIP is still low at .252, so expect the average to continue to rise and get Polanco back to the .300 mark we are accustomed to seeing next to his name. Another positive is his increase in walks this season; this only adds to his run potential in the Tigers lineup.

• Billy Butler, 1B/DH – KC (DOWN) The owners who drafted Butler are still waiting for the power potential to show up. He has kept his batting average around where he was projected, currently .291, but he has only hit one home run to date to go along with 12 RBI and seven runs scored. He has shown better plate discipline as his BB% has increased and K% decreased, but his HR/Flyball ratio has plummeted to 3.1%. This is really the only outlier in his stats. This is likely just part of the growing pains of a young bat and we will soon begin seeing the power appear. I would try and buy before it happens.

• Orlando Cabrera, SS – CHW (DOWN) Cabrera was 0-18 in the Orioles series before snapping out of his funk against the Twins with a 2-4 performance. His batting average dipped to .214, causing many to question his value as some owners have cut him. The fact remains that he does still hit second for a solid White Sox lineup and will score runs, plus his BABIP is .243 showing some bad luck. Another positive is that he has yet to get caught stealing a base, which he has five of to date. He has historically been a very solid percentage stealer and is on pace for about 30 for the season, even in his on-base slump. Don’t look for a repeat .300 average and 80-plus RBI, I’d expect closer to a solid .275, 90 runs, 65 RBI and 30-35 steals.

• Vladimir Guerrero, OF – LAA (DOWN) Guerrero was generally picked as the top AL outfielder coming into the season, but to this point, Guerrero is struggling to find his power stroke as well as his ability to hit above .300. He has experienced a spike in strikeouts, currently at 17.9% of at-bats, up from a standard of 11-12%. This has taken away balls-in-play, which in-turn has taken away from his batting average and power numbers. At some point this figured to happen with his free-swinging nature, but I wouldn’t expect it to stay to this extreme. However, the fact that his HR/Flyball rate has decreased every year since he left the Expos does put up a flag and make you wonder whether any 30 home run seasons are still possible.

Pitchers

• Shaun Marcum, SP – TOR (UP) Marcum picked up his third win of the season by throwing 6 2/3 innings of two-hit shutout ball against the White Sox. He also struck out nine batters, giving him 35 on the season in 40 innings. His record now stands at 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA. Don’t expect this pace to continue, as he is exceeding past strikeout totals and having luck with balls in play, but he is looking like a fine third or fourth starter for any fantasy team.

• Erik Bedard, SP – SEA (UP) The questions concerning Bedard and his slow spring training and first two starts of the regular season have quickly disappeared. The sensational lefty has performed extremely well since coming off of the disabled list with two straight starts in which he has allowed a combined one earned run and allowed only six hits. In total, his record stands at 2-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings, exactly what the Mariners were paying for when acquiring him. The only downside is his 4.74 BB/9, and a .182 BABIP, which should be monitored, but regardless, Bedard is showing why he is one of the AL’s top pitchers.

• Chien-Ming Wang, SP – NYY (UP) All the man does is win. Wang was the first AL pitcher to get to six wins, as he defeated the Mariners on Friday night. Wang may not be the most valuable fantasy pitcher around, but what he lacks in strikeouts, he always makes up for in wins. He is currently 6-0 with a fine 3.23 ERA, plus his strikeouts are going up. He is currently striking out 6.4 batters per nine innings, up from his previous career high last season of 4.70. After winning 19 games in back-to-back years, Wang sure looks ready to take down the 20-win plateau.

• Rafael Betancourt, CL – CLE (DOWN) Handed the closers job by default when Joe Borowski went on the disabled list, many were thrilled, but what many have forgotten including many Indians fans, is the fact that Betancourt tried to close once before and failed. He blew seven saves in 2004 while only accumulating four. Betancourt struggled against the Mariners last week by losing one game, then blowing a save in his next appearance. He still has only two saves since taking over the job 2 1/2 weeks ago, though that could be partly blamed on the Indians’ poor offensive output to be able to generate any chances for victory. Betancourt has experienced some bad luck with balls in play as his BABIP is .378 and his HR/Flyball ratio is 19%, both above norms, which should project him back down. Yet, with the rumors of Borowski coming back to retake the closer’s job in the next week or so, Betancourt’s chance to claim the closers job is fading.

• J.J. Putz, CL – SEA (DOWN) Since returning from the Rib injury that sidelined Putz in April, he has been experiencing major control issues. After walking a total of 13 batters all of 2007, Putz has walked five in his last two innings. He has also allowed five runs as compared to his eleven from last season. Definitely not what the Mariners need when they do have a lead with their struggling offense. This has caused the Mariners to adjust his routines which now includes a daily side session to help further along his rehabbing. It may be awhile longer until he is fully recovered, but it is looking more like Putz was overvalued to begin the season with his .205 BABIP and 94% LOB% from last season.

• Edwin Jackson, SP – TB (DOWN) A return to form of sorts for Jackson who streaked out of the gate in his first two starts. Since April 10th, Jackson has only one quality start, and now shows an ERA equal to his BB/9, which is not good when your BB/9 is 4.98. With Scott Kazmir coming of off the DL, someone has to make room on the roster. While it may not initially be Jackson, who is out of options, he may soon be writing his own ticket out of town if he does not improve soon.

INJURY REPORT

The Yankees were hit hard this week with injuries. It started with Jorge Posada’s shoulder, included Alex Rodriguez’s quad injury and finished with Phil Hughes’ rib cage fracture. The Posada injury was not as bad as first thought as the MRI revealed no major damage. He is projected to return in 4-6 weeks. The A-Rod injury will force him down for at least 3 weeks, and depending on how it heals, he may be out through May. As for Hughes, his injury was much more serious and he may not return until July, which may give him a chance to regroup for the stretch run and turn around his horrific start.

The Angels have issues as well, Chone Figgins is awaiting results on an MRI on his injured hamstring, Maicer Izturis is now on the DL with a strained back, and Howie Kendrick has still not returned from his hamstring problems. Kendrick was expected to be activated for the weekend series, but he has not healed enough for him to try it out. He will likely be back early in the week as Figgins’ injury is making the Angels infield very thin. With all of the injuries, Erik Aybar has solidified his job as the shortstop, and Brandon Wood has been brought up to get some at-bats at third.

Hamstrings have been a popular injury this season, and Hank Blalock is another of its victims. His MRI disclosed a slight tear in his left hamstring, which will sideline him until the end of May. Not good news for a thin lineup….If you have room on your DL use it, Blalock still has value upon returning.

Rich Harden made his first rehab start on Thursday and allowed one run in 3/23 innings of work. He did not allow a walk and struck out four. He will make one more start before returning to Oakland this week. Let’s hope there are no more setbacks.

Look for Cliff Floyd to be back in the Rays lineup this week. He will be activated from the DL on Friday. He is not a great option, but someone to keep an eye on if he starts to catch fire.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Jeff Clement, C/DH – SEA As stated before, Clement was called up this week for Seattle to mostly hit in the DH slot, but will fill in at catcher as well. Once he gets that eligibility, Clement will be a great addition to any roster as your catcher. He was hitting .397 with five home runs and 20 RBI before his call up. He should project out as a potential .280-.290 guy with 15-20 home runs. Not great as your everyday Utility guy, but great as your catcher once he gains that eligibility. Through five games, Clement is hitting .214.

• Jack Cust, OF – OAK Typically a very streaky hitter, Cust was mired in a very cold streak to begin 2008. He finished the month of April with only one home run and a .176 average. As soon as the calendar flipped to May, Cust went four for four with a home run against the Angels. He has followed that up with two more home runs over the weekend. His stat line now stands at .244 with four home runs and 11 RBI. He is worth a look in deep mixed leagues and is a must play right now in AL-only leagues. Ride the hot streak as long as you can.

• John Danks, SP – CHW The pitcher that the White Sox envisioned when acquiring him from the Texas Rangers looks to be finally developing. Danks struggled through a tough 2007 rookie season allowing 28 home runs with an ERA of 5.50, but has developed as a pitcher and it has shown. Danks has cut back on throwing his curveball for a new cutter. The effect has been more ground balls, which is a must in U.S. Cellular Field, and he has shown increased command of the strike zone, a 25 to 8 K/BB ratio. His ERA stands at 3.12, though his record is just 2-3. Don’t expect his .228 batting average against to last, but Danks is a solid back of the rotation addition and will get two favorable starts this week against Minnesota and Seattle.

• Nick Blackburn, SP – MIN Blackburn has not disappointed since being inserted into the Twins’ rotation at the start of the season. He has given the Twins at least five innings in all six starts, and has a 2-1 record with a 3.52 ERA. He has given up 47 hits in his 38 1/3 innings, but that has to do with a high BABIP of .340. His LOB% is at 74.6%, which also leads to his hit total as being a sign that he should be able to sustain his performance. Look for about 12-14 wins and an ERA of around 4.00 for the season.

FUTURES MARKET

Francisco Liriano made his first appearance since being demoted to Triple-A Rochester. He finished by allowing four runs on five hits over 4 1/3 innings. He also walked five.

An update on Baltimore top prospect, Matt Wieters. He is still tearing up high-A ball with five home runs and 16 RBI. He is hitting .326 with an OPS of .943. I would expect to see him move up to Double-A by the end of May.

Another of the pitchers acquired in the Dan Haren deal by Billy Beane, Brett Anderson, is having a terrific season. Anderson is playing in high-A Stockton, where he struck out 10 over seven scoreless innings on Thursday. His record now stands at 5-1 with a 2.43 ERA and a 36-7 K/BB ratio.

Lance Broadway has continued his dominance of the International League. He is 3-1 with a 1.25 ERA in 36 innings. This run is unlikely to continue as he’s had some great luck with LOB% and BABIP, but he is putting himself into position to be the next call up for the White Sox rotation.

Young Seattle lefty, Ryan Feierabend, is another pitcher on fire. His ERA currently is 1.80 ERA through 25 innings. He had a shot in the Seattle rotation with 13 appearances, but posted a terrible 8.09 ERA in 49 1/3 innings. He has increased his strikeouts this year and may soon get another shot if a situation arises.

Former Rangers’ first-round pick, John Mayberry, was promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma last week and responded by hitting .476 in 21 at-bats with a home run, three doubles and a triple. He was promoted after hitting .268 with four homers in Double-A Frisco. He has 30-plus home run power, but a poor eye keeps his potential ceiling down.

A pair of Indians’ left-handed pitching prospects, Jeremy Sowers and Chuck Lofgren, shined in starts Thursday. Sowers, who had pitched for the Indians last Saturday in a victory over the Yankees, threw seven innings, giving up one run on five hits with six strikeouts. Lofgren, who pitches for Double-A Akron, struck out nine batters in six innings, while allowing one run on six hits. Of the two, Lofgren is the higher rated prospect to watch, he is currently listed by Baseball America as the Indians’ #2 prospect.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

• Buy – A.J. Burnett, SP – TOR It’s looking like whatever problems that Burnett had coming out of spring training are now a thing of the past. He has thrown consecutive games of over seven innings, and his strikeout totals are starting to creep back. He has struck out 11 in his last 15 innings of work, though he still has walked eight in the same time frame. This fact might be a deal-breaker in negotiating for him. His current walk rate of 4.82 per nine innings is nearly a full walk higher than his career mark of 3.79. Also, his BABIP is 32 points higher than his career mark. Expect these all to normalize to an extent and watch his ERA and WHIP go down and provide some wins along the way.

• Sell – Carlos Quentin, OF – CHW There aren’t many hotter in the American League right now than Carlos Quentin. He hit his eighth home run of the season last week to go along with 22 RBIs and a .283 batting average. He’s climbed the fantasy ladder rather quickly in only one month. He started the year with questions about playing time and has now turned in one of the top 5 fantasy months in the AL while leading the league in HR. Quentin was a sleeper to start the season as he moved to a homer-friendly ballpark in Chicago, but his current pace is way above expectations. His HR/Flyball rate of 25% and his .326 ISO are way above norms and will fall back. His career minor league ISO is .214 and his HR/Flyball rate as a major leaguer thus far is 14.1%. It is conceivable to see him still go on and hit .275 with 30 home runs, but where he stands right now, might be a peak in his tradability to an owner needing some power.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 20 ELIGIBLE AL STARTING PITCHERS

1. Josh Beckett, BOS
2. Erik Bedard, SEA
3. Felix Hernandez, SEA
4. C.C. Sabathia, CLE
5. Roy Halladay, TOR
6. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
7. Justin Verlander, DET
8. John Lackey, LAA - DL
9. Javier Vazquez, CHW
10. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY
11. Scott Kazmir, TB - DL
12. James Shields, TB
13. Fausto Carmona, CLE
14. Zack Greinke, KC
15. Jered Weaver, LAA
16. Dustin McGowan, TOR
17. Ervin Santana, LAA
18. Shaun Marcum, TOR
19. A.J. Burnett, TOR
20. Clay Buchholz, BOS

…

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.