Roto Chronicles: American League – May 19

Big week looms for Justin Verlander, is it time to Buy Low?

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Garret Anderson, OF/Util - LAA (UP) Anderson is on fire. Over his recent 8-game hitting streak, he has had two or more hits six times and raised his batting average from .239 to .288. He is once again proving that he is not ready to slow down just yet. He will never get back to the 25-plus home run days, but with this recent streak, Anderson is right back to where we should imagine him being, a hitter who will bat around .280 with a chance at 20 home runs and 90 RBI.

• Ian Kinsler, 2B - TEX (UP) With Josh Hamilton cleaning up any runners on base ahead of him like there’s no tomorrow, Kinsler is reaping the rewards in his runs totals. To date, Kinsler is leading the league with 34 runs scored and has compiled a total of 12 steals, over half of his prior season total of 23. He has become a true leadoff hitter and should his 4.7% HR/Flyball rate come up towards his career average of 9.1%, his value will continue to rise.

• Kenji Johjima, C – SEA (UP) Many fantasy owners were quick to dismiss Johjima and his slow start. His batting average in the month of April was a measly .182 including zero home runs. He has now hit safely in six of eight games raising his average to .221. He also has hit two home runs in May and has a total of 12 RBI on the season. The peripherals, a .223 BABIP, a decreasing K% and career low 4.7% HR/Flyball ratio all show that he should continue putting the ball in play 93% of the time with increasing chances for hits as his BABIP regresses towards his career .284 average.

• Daric Barton, 1B - OAK (DOWN) Looked at as a potential rookie-of-the-year candidate with little power, Barton has lived up to at least one of those predictions. Barton has only two home runs in 175 plate appearances. He also has a poor batting average of .221 including a total of three hits since May 3^rd. The main issue has been a substantial amount of strikeouts. He is currently striking out in 24.8% of at-bats. If this should continue, it will make it very hard to bring his average back up to respectability and get back into the rookie-of-the-year race.

• Johnny Damon, OF - NYY (DOWN) Damon is in the midst of a terrible slump. Over his past seven games, Damon has three hits in 30 at-bats, lowering his season average to .250. It is looking more and more like this may be around where his average will hover. He has seen a both an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in BABIP over the past three seasons making it hard to get back to the .280 mark we were used to seeing from Damon. He will steal some bases and hit a few homers, but don’t let his good start fool you too much. He will likely finish somewhere in between his 2007 and 2006 stats with a few less steals.

• Kurt Suzuki, C - OAK (DOWN) Another Oakland hitter is facing a down streak. Suzuki is one for his last 29 at-bats and still has a total of only five extra base hits on the season. His average is now at .237 with a slugging percentage lower than his on-base percentage, .289 to .309. If you happen to own him I’d begin looking elsewhere. In a career 365 at-bats, he has only a .247 average with eight home runs and 51 RBI. This is not even worth the catcher spot in a shallow league.

Pitchers

• Scott Kazmir, SP - TB (UP) The first start off of the DL for Kazmir may have been a little shaky, but the following two have each been successes. Over these past two starts, Kazmir has yet to allow a run in 12 innings striking out nine and allowing only six hits. The only complaint to this point still has been the walk totals, nine in 16 innings, but that can be expected of Kazmir who does have a career 4.16 BB/9 ratio. His BABIP of .278, LOB% of 81%, and Fielding Independent ERA of 2.96 do forecast a regression in the future, but Kazmir appears to be very close to being back in full force.

• Francisco Rodriguez, CL – LAA (UP) K-Rod saved his league leading 17^th game of the season on Friday night. This is coming from a guy who missed about a week of the season in early April with an ankle problem. Since that blown save on April 7^th against the Indians that put him on the sideline, Rodriguez has allowed only three earned runs on eleven hits over 15 innings, striking out 10 and walking just four. He is again proving himself to be one of the elite closers in the game today. Though one still can’t help but notice the dramatic decrease in his strikeouts. Coming into 2008, Rodriguez’ K/9 was around 12. This season, it stands at 6.75.

• Joe Saunders, SP - LAA (UP) I admit I have been slow to recognize Joe Saunders’ start to this season, it is likely because the start has been so far above any expectations that you just wait for that terrible outing to come and put his numbers back up to his projections of an ERA over 4.20, a WHIP of over 1.40 and 10-12 wins. It has yet to happen. Saunders again pitched well Friday defeating the cross-town interleague rival Dodgers for his seventh win of the season. His total record now stands at 7-1 with a fine 2.48 ERA. Will this continue? I still have my doubts, with his .250 BABIP as compared to his .305 career average, an 83% LOB%, and 3.93 K/9. Though, I will say it is looking more likely that his ERA in the end will be under 4.00 along with having a shot at 16-18 wins to show for it.

• Boof Bonser, SP - MIN (DOWN) Trimmed down to start the season, Bonser has not only lost some weight, but his strikeout ability has faded as well. For a pitcher who consistently struck out over nine batters per nine innings in the minor leagues, Bonser is now only punching out 5.71 batters per nine innings. This has decreased each of his three seasons in a big league uniform. With the extra balls in play, his ERA has taken a hit and now stands at 5.37 after nine starts. And in his last three starts, he has allowed five or more runs in each of them, with an ERA of 9.00. The most likely culprit other than the decreased K ratio, is his unlucky 57% LOB%. He also has a Fielding Independent ERA of 3.96, which signifies an improvement is likely to come. However, there is no denying right now the negative effect he’s had on fantasy teams of late.

• Felix Hernandez, SP – SEA (DOWN) At the end of April, Hernandez was looking like he was on the verge of breaking out into stardom, but once again he has slid into a funk that has seen his ERA rise from 2.22 to 3.34. His ERA alone in the month of May is 5.56. The main problem has been the amount of walks he has been surrendering. In 22.2 innings in May he has walked 12 and struck out 16. This has lowered his K/BB ratio to 2.04, down from 3.11 last season. A couple of other things to watch, Hernandez has been allowing less HR/Flyball and stranding more runners than at previous rates, both of which, if at career norms would add to his ERA. At this point one can assume this is likely just a bad streak that will soon be corrected, but for all of those owners out there who have Hernandez as their ace, this stretch has made them a little nervous. Hernandez did have a positive start Sunday going six innings allowing only one walk and two runs.

• C.J. Wilson, CL – TEX (DOWN) It was bound to happen at some point with the low strikeout totals, the high walk rate and amount of balls hit into play with C.J. Wilson on the mound. Wilson allowed six runs on six hits over 1.2 combined innings pitched in consecutive appearances against the Mariners and A’s last week. Lucky for the Rangers these were not close save situations, and were able to keep in tact these victories and Wilson’s eight out of nine save success rate. Whether this will continue is yet to be seen, but with the return to health of Joaquin Benoit and the re-emergence of “Everyday Eddie” in the Rangers ‘pen, Wilson may be on a little bit shorter of a leash.

INJURY REPORT

Many fantasy owners have been awaiting the return of their number one pick, Alex Rodriguez to their lineup. He has reported no problems with his strained quadriceps during rehab this week, and with out any further setbacks he will be back in the Yankee lineup this Tuesday night.

Clay Buchholz was hit hard against the Twins last Monday night giving up seven runs in 4.1 innings before exiting the game and being placed on the disabled list. He is listed as to having a broken fingernail on his right hand. This will be retroactive to May 13^th, leaving him eligible to be activated at months end. This move will likely give the young Buchholz a chance to regroup and find himself in some Triple-A starts and the Red Sox be able to start Bartolo Colon and see what he has left.

Hank Blalock was set to return this week, but a problem with his injured hamstring caused him to be scratched from his rehab. He is now aiming for this weekend against Cleveland. The big news is that he will be the everyday first baseman as he volunteered for the switch.

Angels’ third baseman Chone Figgins will also be returning this week from his strained hamstring. He is eligible to be activated on Tuesday.

Dontrelle Willis made two appearances for Triple-A Toledo as part of his rehab last week. He went 1-0 with a 4.63 ERA in 11.2 innings. Not bad, but he still walked as many as he struck out, seven each, and still allowed 12 hits. Willis will likely be called upon in the next week or so.

Cleveland closer Joe Borowski is looking to return to action this Friday after rehabbing a strained forearm injury that decreased his velocity and effectiveness early in the season. He threw 36 pitches in a simulated game on Friday and will have two minor league appearances before his return.

Oakland setup man Santiago Casilla was placed on the 15-day disabled list Friday with soreness in his right elbow. The exact cause or extent of the injury is not known, thus there is no current timetable for recovery set.

Look for third baseman Eric Chavez to return within the next two to three weeks. He began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento on Thursday to get some game action and make sure that his back injury is healthy enough to go. In three games, Chavez has four hits in 10 at-bats with a home run.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Dioner Navarro, C – TB Should you find yourself in a position where you need a catcher, a prime target should be Dioner Navarro, who remains available in over half of ESPN leagues. He is currently batting .368, which is not going to be sustained with his .395 BABIP, but what is intriguing is his improvement in cutting down strikeouts. He is putting the ball in play more, which has been mostly on the ground (51% as compared to his career 41%) and getting more hits because of it. The fly balls are likely to begin increasing towards his norm causing a small spike in home runs. In the end, Navarro will give comparable stats to many of the currently owned catchers. A projection of .285 with 10-12 home runs and 75 RBI is feasible.

• Jose Guillen, OF – KC The horrendous beginning to the 2008 season for Guillen looks to behind him. Since May 7^th, Guillen has batted .500, with two home runs and 13 RBI. His batting average is all of the way up to .245, up from his .165 batting average on May 7^th. His HR/Flyball rate is still a little low at 11.3%, as compared to his career 15.7%, hinting that he will likely begin hitting more home runs and thus scoring more runs and driving in more RBI. He may not end up batting .290 again as last season, but a chance for a .270 average with 20-25 home runs and 80 RBI is not that bad of an option for a deep mixed league outfielder.

• Luke Hochevar, SP – KC The former first-round pick has made the most of his chance when called up to replace John Bale in the rotation. He has gone 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts. Opponents are hitting just .244 off of him, while Hochevar has stuck out 7.28 per nine innings. His fielding independent ERA is 3.69, and his LOB% of 73.3, BABIP of .295 and HR/Flyball rate of 7.1% don’t hint of too much luck in his starts. While Hochevar has a BB/9 of 4.25, it is much higher than his career minor league rate of 2.68 and likely to regress downward aiding his cause. Now with Bale out until at least through June with a broken hand, Hochevar will stay in the rotation, likely for the season.

• Joe Borowski, CL – CLE The much maligned Cleveland closer will be returning from the disabled list by the end of the week and has said “everything has been good” with his rehab. If he should happen to still be available in your league, pick him up. The Indians bullpen has struggled to find a replacement since he left over a month ago. Betancourt and Kobayashi both have blown games over the past week leaving the job wide open and awaiting his return. I still wouldn’t expect lights out numbers, but it can’t be any worse than either his start to the season or his replacements chances to date.

FUTURES MARKET

Twins starter Francisco Liriano looks to be turning a corner as he lasted eight innings in his most recent start. Most importantly, he allowed only three runs on seven hits while walking only one. If this continues for any extended period of time, he could be back with the Twins in June.

Tigers pitching prospect Rick Porcello has continued to shine in his pro debut. He is still pitching in Single-A Lakeland, but with the way he has been throwing a promotion is likely to be in his near future. On the season, Porcello is 3-4 with a 1.72 ERA with only one home run and 33 hits allowed in 47 innings. He also has a crazy 66% ground ball rate.

Denard Span, who was one of the center fielders who lost out on the starting center field job to Carlos Gomez in spring training, is on fire for Triple-A Rochester. For a player who hit a total of three home runs all of 2007, he hit three in three days last week. He also has a .369 average with 13 steals. With the Twins outfield pretty much set, there is no real place for Span, but he is be a player to watch should any of Cuddyer, Gomez or Young get hurt.

Austin Jackson, the Yankees top position player prospect, has suffered a slight learning curve upon his promotion to Double-A Trenton to start the season. Jackson, a center fielder, combined to hit .304 with 13 home runs and 33 stolen bases between the two A-ball levels a year ago. To this point in 2008, Jackson has hit .273 with one home run, six stolen bases and 30 strikeouts in 154 at-bats.

Jed Lowrie was demoted back to Pawtucket last week upon Alex Cora’s activation from the disabled list. Lowrie had hit .310 in 42 at-bats with the Sox and was looking like a possible upgrade over both Lugo and Cora. Since returning to Triple-A, Lowrie has four hits in 15 at-bats with five RBI. With Lugo’s struggles in the field, Lowrie is definitely a player to keep an eye on. He hit .296 with 13 home runs and 70 RBI last season.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Buy – Justin Verlander, SP – DET The value for Verlander is about as low as you could get right now. His record stands at 1-7 and his ERA 6.05 after nine starts. His velocity in his last game against Kansas City was still 93-96 MPH, around what was expected of him, and he seems to know what he has to fix. He says that “his front side is flying open.” That was said before his last start against the Royals, which was his best start of the year. He went six innings allowing two runs on six hits. Though, it was still not good enough for a victory. The ratio that continues to jump out at me is his very unlucky 58.8 LOB%. This should go up to a normal 70% range stranding more runners and helping to decrease his ERA. I still view Verlander as a guy who could still finish the year with an ERA in the low 4.00’s and win at least 12 games. For example, if from this point on if he has a 3.60 ERA, his season ERA will still finish at around 4.25, and with the Tigers run support, he should be able to win at least 10-12 of these starts. This will be a very big week for Verlander as he has two starts against Seattle and Minnesota, the two worst OBP teams in the league. Overall, at the value he currently stands at, it is definitely worth buying low to see what happens. He could be a bargain from here on out.

Sell – Mike Mussina, SP – NYY After last season’s struggles to stay in the Yankee rotation, not many would have predicted Mussina having six wins halfway through May with an ERA under 4.00. However that is exactly what he has done. What has changed? One thing is a 1.09 BB/9, which is by far the lowest of his career. The other is a dramatic drop in his BABIP, which was a rather unlucky .340 last season. It currently stands at .279 to go along with a 74.7 LOB%, both closer to career norms. Yet, the part that makes me nervous is his continued decrease in K/9, which is down to a very low 4.35. Match that with the likelihood of an increase in walks towards career norms, and he is likely to regress towards his Fielding Independent ERA of 4.53.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL CATCHERS

1. Joe Mauer, MIN
2. Victor Martinez, CLE
3. Mike Napoli, LAA
4. Jorge Posada, NYY - DL
5. A.J. Pierzynski, CHW
6. Ivan Rodriguez, DET
7. Jason Varitek, BOS
8. Dioner Navarro, TB
9. Kenji Johjima, SEA
10. Ramon Hernandez,BAL

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.