Roto Chronicles: American League – May 26

Texas sized success in the Rangers’ outfield…

*One note for this weeks column, the stats are only through Saturday, May 24th due to my traveling on Sunday for Memorial Day.

The Rangers were not sure what to expect from their outfield at the outset of the season. Included were a couple of prospects in Josh Hamilton and David Murphy and a commodity in Milton Bradley in which you don’t know how much to expect. The result has been phenomenal.

All three are currently among the top outfielders in the American League. Josh Hamilton is in the running for the AL Triple Crown, Bradley has taken over as the cleanup hitter with a .329 average and eight home runs, while Murphy has a league leading 19 doubles with a .296 average. Whether this will continue is yet to be seen, but one thing is for sure, they have made the Rangers’ offense a force to be reckoned with.

I nearly decided to highlight each of these players ascent up the fantasy charts, but talked myself down to one, David Murphy, as I have highlighted Hamilton and Bradley in previous weeks.

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• David Murphy, OF – TEX (UP) Murphy’s value continues to skyrocket as he battles to be the rookie of the year. He currently leads the AL in doubles with 19, and is in the top ten in slugging percentage, RBI, and hits. He is also in the midst of an eleven game hitting streak. It can’t get much better than it is right now for Murphy. Fantasy fans have taken notice after he went undrafted in most preseason drafts, Murphy is now owned in over 90% of leagues on ESPN. This current pace will obviously not be sustainable as he does strikeout about 20% of the time, but Murphy who has a 9% HR/FB in a hitter’s park could hit upward of 18-20 home runs. The unknown is still whether he will keep up on his batting average and stay around .300 or fall back. His BABIP this season is .346 after a .410 mark last season. These are quite high, as his minor league BABIP ranged in the .310-.320 range. My bet is that he will regress backward some and finish with a batting average of around .280.

• Jermaine Dye , OF – CHW (UP) Dye had a brief six-game hitting streak snapped Saturday against the Angels. During that streak he hit .417 with two home runs and seven RBI. For the month of May he has a total of six homers and 13 RBI to go along with a .309 average. He is again looking like the power hitter that we had grown accustomed to. I would not expect anything close to his 2006 career year, due to a decreasing K/BB ratio and a slightly lucky BABIP of .333 as compared to his career mark of .303, but he will not be as poor as last season. Look for something in between. Best guess is a .275-.280 average with 25 homers and 80-90 RBI.

• Frank Thomas, DH – OAK (UP) Left for dead by Toronto a few weeks into the season, Thomas has rediscovered his power stroke over the past week, hitting four home runs. He now has a total of seven on the season to go along with a .248 batting average and 27 RBI. This is after hitting just .181 in the month of April. He surely has regained value as a utility player in the fantasy world, but should only be owned in deep leagues or a league that values OBP, unless you can handle a low batting average to get his 20-plus home runs. He has not had a BABIP of over .300 since 2000 and adding in a strikeout rate of 22% makes a batting average of over .270 tough to accomplish.

• Carl Crawford, OF – TB (DOWN) Fantasy players keep waiting on Crawford to develop some power in his game, but continuously are disappointed. If fact, Crawford’s isolated power, a measure of slugging percentage minus batting average, has actually decreased for a second straight season. It is currently at .107, which is similar to his rookie season when he hit just two home runs in 259 at-bats. He should continue to hit for a solid average as his strikeouts have decreased and he is again hitting over .300 with balls in play. Though, if the power continues to be absent, Crawford’s fantasy value will continue to take a hit and no longer make him a consideration for a first-round draft selection.

• Paul Konerko, 1B – CHW (DOWN) The days of Paul Konerko being one of the top first baseman are now looking to be way behind as he continues to struggle at the plate. He has been unable to recapture any of his success from 2004-2006 and is barely hitting over .200 at the moment. His HR/FB rate has decreased for a fourth consecutive season to only 11.6%, and he is hitting more ground balls than ever before, nearly 50% of at-bats. He should break this current slump, but don’t expect much more than a .260 average with potential for 20-25 home runs. He is also being bothered by a hand injury that kept him out of the White Sox lineup over the weekend.

• Gary Matthews, Jr., OF – LAA (DOWN) People continually seem to be amazed by this player, as he is still owned in 43% of ESPN leagues. He had a great season in 2006, earning a big contract from the Angels and making him a prime fantasy player. Problem was and continues to be, that he wasn’t that good other than that season. He is a career .259 hitter who strikes out too much. He does have a little pop in the bat, which is eroding away (.131 ISO), and some speed, but neither is tremendous. He is currently slumping down to a season average of .219 with 46 strikeouts in 183 at-bats. There has to be someone else on your waiver list that can help more than Matthews Jr..

Pitchers

• Jose Contreras, SP – CHW (UP) Contreras struggled mightily in 2007 and fell off of the fantasy baseball radar, but a strong start to 2008 has changed that. Through nine starts, Contreras is 5-3 with a 3.17 ERA. He is again showing solid command of his nasty slider and getting an increased number of ground balls. This has been a key in his improved ability to keep the ball in the yard. He has only allowed two home runs to date. Both at home in the great hitter’s park that is “The Cell.” Though, his number of strikeouts has continued a decline to only 4.83 per nine innings. This will likely hurt his chances to sustain his current pace, but a possible 12-15 wins with an ERA around 4.25 is definitely feasible. Last night’s start is not included in this synopsis.

• Dana Eveland, SP – OAK (UP) Picked up from the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren deal, Eveland has fit right into the Oakland rotation. He is now owned in 45% of leagues and that continues to grow from his undrafted status at the start of the year. Through 10 starts, Eveland is 4-3 with a 2.90 ERA. In the month of May alone his ERA is 1.95. He has been solid enough to earn a value, but be weary. His home-road split is not great. He is 1-3 on the road with an ERA of 4.59, and at home is 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA. He is likely at neither end of this spectrum, but being a ground ball pitcher in a non-homer friendly park in Oakland will continue to help him.

• Javier Vazquez, SP – CHW (UP) Vazquez may be having his best season of his career. His K-to-BB ratio is currently a career best 5.0, as his K/9 (8.91) is his highest since 2003, and his BB/9 (1.78) is his lowest since 2001. Add in the fact that he has allowed 21% line drives and a .333 BABIP and one can definitely see why his fielding independent ERA is 2.54. Vazquez is definitely among the elite pitchers in the game and is looking like a great bargain from preseason fantasy drafts. Overall, Vazquez is 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 65.2 innings.

• Brian Bannister, SP – KC (DOWN) It is getting harder to count on Bannister to give a quality start. Not that he was that safe of a bet anyway, with his tendency to keep the ball in play. Over his past seven starts, Bannister has an ERA of 7.02 including five starts of allowing five or more runs. Not what you want even if you are trying to spot start him in favorable match-ups. Though, not all is lost. He has improved his K-to-BB ratio and has a slightly unlucky 64.1% strand rate. Don’t expect him to return to a level of success similar to his rookie campaign, but he could go the season with an ERA hovering around 4.50 with 10-12 wins.

• Fausto Carmona, SP – CLE (DOWN) Carmona somehow managed to keep his ERA down in the 2.00’s before his last start against the Rangers. He had been playing with fire by allowing numerous walks, 5.90 per nine innings, and striking out fewer than four batters per nine innings. The saving grace has been his extreme ground ball tendency, 67% of balls in play, which has helped him to lead the league in ground ball double plays. In his last start against the Rangers, Carmona allowed six runs in two-plus innings, walking three before leaving with a strained hip. His ERA jumped from 2.25 to 3.10. It was only a matter of time until somebody came through against him.

• Carlos Silva, SP – SEA (DOWN) Do me a favor if you have Carlos Silva on your roster. Please drop him. I am amazed he is even owned in 6% of leagues. I do not understand why anyone would take up a roster spot with him, unless he is on a hot streak in a pitcher friendly ball park against a weak offense. All because he had a decent streak last season to get an ERA of 4.19, we expect him to give value? Sure he went to a decent pitcher park in Seattle, but he still doesn’t strike anyone out, which in turn causes him to allow too many hits. Silva, over his past four starts, is 0-4 with an ERA of 8.89. This struggle has brought his stats right back to what should be expected, an ERA in the upper 4.00’s with virtually no strikeouts and a chance at a few wins.

INJURY REPORT

The carrousel that is the Angels’ infield continues. Erik Aybar, who had stayed healthy and earned the starting shortstop position, is now on the disabled list with a dislocated pinkie finger. He will return after his 15-days are up.

This injury in-turn puts recent DL returnee, Maicer Izturis, at short while second base will now be manned by rookie Sean Rodriguez until Howie Kendrick returns. Kendrick will likely be beginning another rehab assignment this week and will hopefully return next week.

In Oakland, setup man Santiago Casilla was diagnosed with a strained elbow ligament. The timetable for recovery is said to be a month. Keep an eye on his return, Casilla will still have value as a potential closer should Huston Street be traded.

Also, Oakland third baseman, Eric Chavez, is set to return to the A’s lineup this Tuesday. In 24 at-bats during his rehab, he has hit .417 with one home run and 3 doubles. He is definitely someone to watch and maybe even pickup should you need a third baseman with some power.

Look for Indians starter Jake Westbrook to return to the Indians rotation next week. He pitched in his last rehab start Friday night, throwing six scoreless innings. I would not pick him up for his first start off of the DL against the White Sox, whom he has a less than stellar career against, but he is definitely a must watch.

Westbrook will pick up Fausto Carmona’s turn in the rotation this week as Carmona strained his left hip running to cover first base. He was placed onto the 15-day disabled list Saturday and will not return until mid-June.

The Texas Rangers will be getting needed help for their starting rotation as Kevin Millwood will return to eat up some innings. His planned activation date is Friday against the A’s. He could give some wins with the resurgent Rangers offense, but I would stay away.

Fellow Ranger Hank Blalock was again set to return, but this time he was diagnosed with Carpal Tunnel Syndrome. This will be a brief setback as he waits for the pain in the hand to subside. He will be back by the end of the week.

The White Sox placed second baseman Juan Uribe on the disabled list with a strained hamstring. The only real fantasy value of this move is that Alexei Ramirez will continue to see his first real opportunity to play and succeed. Ramirez, if he plays well, is a great sleeper.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Eric Chavez, 3B – OAK As stated above, Eric Chavez will be returning from the disabled list. If you are in need of some power from a third base or corner infield spot, look to add Chavez. He is a fly ball hitter who has a career 14.7% HR/FB rate. While his seasonal home run total has declined each year since 2003, it is partly due to injuries that have limited him in 2004, 2006, 2007, and the start of this season. Over this time, his HR/FB has only gone from a 16% to a 12%, not as big of a discrepancy as you’d think. Don’t expect a high average from Chavez though. His career .288 BABIP mixed with a 19% strikeout rate don’t add up to much more than a .265 average along with a possibility for 20 home runs the rest of the way.

• Ben Francisco, OF – CLE The Indians, starved for any production offensively, have placed recent call-up Ben Francisco right into the middle of the lineup. He has responded by hitting .365 with a two home runs and 11 RBI in 63 at-bats. He should have had another home run Friday night if MLB had instant replay, but nonetheless, Francisco has taken over in the Indians corner outfield spots and earned full-time status. He not exceptional in any one skill, but is a well-rounded player with some power and speed who could hit at least .290. He is also is the reigning International League batting champion. If you are in a mixed league and need an extra outfielder, take a look at Francisco.

• Bartolo Colon, SP – BOS Colon made his season debut last week for the Red Sox in the place of injured Clay Buchholz. He responded by going five innings, allowing two runs with four strike outs. I would not expect a return to dominance for the big right-hander, but the possibility that he will again be a guy who can strikeout seven batters per nine innings with an ERA in the low-to-mid 4.00’s is a possibility. He looks to be healthy and his fastball is back into the mid-90’s, where it was before his arm problems began. He is in line to make two starts this week against the Mariners and Orioles.

• Aaron Laffey, SP – CLE With Fausto Carmona going down with the hip strain, Laffey will have earned himself at least two more weeks in the Indians rotation. His sinking fastball and changeup have been responsible for a 52% ground ball rate, which in addition to his 3.33 K/BB ratio make him a worthy fantasy start. He will not maintain the current ERA of 1.80, but if given the opportunity, he could be a pitcher with an ERA around 4.00 and double-digit wins. Acquire with the thought that he is a short-term pickup until Carmona returns, but know that the possibility is there that he could stick.

FUTURES MARKET

Francisco Liriano has continued to right the ship since his return to Rochester. Another week, another quality start. Liriano threw seven innings, allowing two runs on eight hits with only one walk allowed and three strikeouts. If this keeps up, a return to the Twins rotation should happen in June.

The arrival of the highly touted David Price is upon us. The number-one overall pick in last June’s draft went five innings in a successful debut. He earned the win and faced just 17 batters, two over the minimum. He struck out four, allowed zero runs and allowed only three hits. He will not be a factor this season in fantasy leagues until possibly a September call-up, but the he could be the impact player you want next season.

Tampa Bay shortstop prospect, Reid Brignac, is finally starting to hit. After hitting .244 in the month of April, Brignac is on a tear right now. Over the past 10 games, he has six multi-hit games and a batting average of .486. His total line of stats now read .296 with five home runs and 24 RBI. If Jason Bartlett continues to barely hit .240, look for Brignac by the end of the season.

Another Indians left-handed starting pitcher is pushing himself up the prospect charts. Double-A Akron starter, David Huff, is on a streak of seven straight starts of not allowing more than two runs in any game. He is showing great command, walking eleven in 53.1 innings, and has struck out 49. Overall he is 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA.

White Sox third base prospect Josh Fields was activated from the disabled list last week. In his third game upon returning, Fields hit two home runs in a game against Lehigh Valley. For the season, Fields is hitting .243 with six homers and 19 RBI. Should he be called up for any reason, he could provide some power, but don’t expect much of an average.

As soon as Jeff Clement started showing positive signs against major league pitching, the Mariners decided to demote him. Once again, Triple-A Tacoma is reaping the rewards of this top catching prospect. Since his demotion he has a six game hitting streak, hitting .360 with three home runs. He will likely be back soon as Jose Vidro still is not showing that he deserves the DH job.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

• Buy – Victor Martinez, C – CLE What has happened to the Indians’ All-Star catcher? He has a total of zero homeruns through a near two months of the season. This is from a hitter who is a team’s cleanup batter and one who has averaged 21 home runs per season over the past four years. He was to be the safest bet among catchers and provide another great season. There is still time to reap his benefits from a weak position. He is still hitting the ball all over the ball park, as he is having another season of an average of .300 or better. His line drive rate of 27% is helping to hold his batting average up while he waits on the fly balls to come. He also has continued to cut back on strikeouts for a third straight season. I would not project this power outage to continue. As stated, he is still putting the ball in play and it is usually hard. It is highly doubtful that he returns to a 20 home run season, but 10-15 is not bad from any catcher, especially one who hits over .300 and has as many RBI chances as Victor does.

• Sell – Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP – BOS Daisuke has been off to a terrific start to the season. He has won eight of ten starts and has an ERA of 2.40. It was not inconceivable that this could have happened at the outset of the season, so why is he a sell high candidate. For starters, his 5.70 BB/9 is astounding. Unlike Fausto Carmona who has a similar number, Matsuzaka can counter it with some strikeouts, even though they are down from last season, from 8.84 to 7.91 K/9. Also, his BABIP of .242 and strand rate of 83.6% hint to some luck to his start. Should these regress toward his averages, even from Japan, he is likely to start allowing many more of the runners that reach via walk to score. Evidence to this is his xFIP ERA of 4.97. This is a stat from The Hardball Times that attempts to project a pitchers’ future ERA based on fielding independent occurrences and then normalizing it to park effects and home runs per fly ball. I wouldn’t expect his ERA to go this crazy, but I don’t expect it to stay as low as it is right now. Let someone else take the risk.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL FIRST BASEMAN

1. Miguel Cabrera, DET
2. David Ortiz, BOS
3. Justin Morneau, MIN
4. Kevin Youkilis, BOS
5. Carlos Guillen, DET
6. Casey Kotchman, LAA
7. Alex Gordon, KC
8. Carlos Pena, TB
9. Victor Martinez, CLE
10. Paul Konerko, CHW

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.