The Royals Wasteland

Building a losing franchise without the draft.

The Royals have lost eight straight games, were no-hit by Jon Lester last Monday, and swept by the Red Sox and Blue Jays in their two four game series last week. Their hitters continue to struggle. Following the Toronto series the Royals are 14th in the American League in HRs and RBIs, 13th in OBP, and 14th in SLG. Through all this gloom, there is still hope. The Royals have young pitchers to be excited about for the first time in many years. Zach Grienke looks like a Cy Young candidate. Brian Bannister went 12-9 with a 3.87 ERA in 27 starts in his rookie season last year, and has shown signs of that again this year. Luke Hochevar is 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA in his rookie season, and one could argue that the back of the Royals’ young bullpen is the best in the American League.

Player	Age	IP	K	BB	ERA
Ramon Ramirez	26	21.0	25	6	2.14
Leo Nunez	24	20.0	13	5	1.35
Joakim Soria	24	23.5	23	5	0.93

None of these relievers were drafted or developed by the Royals however: Ramirez was acquired in a trade for the erratic Jorge De La Rosa, Nunez was acquired in a trade for the ancient Benito Santiago, and Soria was a Rule V pick from the Padres. General Manager Dayton Moore is responsible for two of these players (Soria and Ramirez), but the much maligned Allard Baird traded for Nunez. Baird is also responsible for drafting Grienke. Moore traded for Bannister and drafted Hochevar.

Much of the Royals’ ineptitude has been placed at the feet of Baird (06/00-05/06), who traded away the young outfield of Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, and Jermaine Dye without much to show for it, and his predecessor Herk Robinson (10/90-06/00), who, with 19 first round picks in 10 years- many of them top 10 picks- produced only Damon, Michael Tucker, Mike MacDougal and Jimmy Gobble as significant contributors to the big league team.

1991- Joe Vitiello (7), Jason Pruitt (30)

1992- Tucker (10), Jim Pittsley (17), Sherrard Clinkscoles (31), Damon (35)

1993- Jeff Granger (5)

1994- Matt Smith (16)

1995- Juan Lebron (19)

1996- Dee Brown (14)

1997- Dan Reichart (7)

1998- Jeff Austin (4), Matt Burch (30), Chris George (31)

1999- Kyle Snyder (7), MacDougal (25), Jay Gehrke (32), Gobble (43)

2000- Mike Stodolka (4)

Most of these players cannot be considered busts. Most of these players were never on more than a couple opening day rosters for the Royals. There has to be some show of promise to be a bust. If you add five years to each draft, and coincide it with the Royals’ record for that season, its no surprise to see so many 100 loss seasons.

This draft record seems impossible by the law of averages. How can a team be so wrong so many times in one decade? This can’t only be a reflection of poor scouting. There has to be more to the story? All of these lottery picks, to borrow a term, cannot go wrong. I think putting a top twenty prospect list from any major baseball publication in a hat, and drawing a name would produce more major league regulars than this. There has to be a substantial element of lack of player development contributing here.

Because blue chip picks aren’t “supposed” to need a ton of development, its easy to blame a gm for picking a decade full of busts, but a look deeper in the drafts supports lack of development as the key to the question. Every team in the league has at least one contributor drafted by the franchise after the 10th round except the Royals, Baltimore and Boston. Baltimore in the same boat with Kansas City doesn’t seem like a surprise, but Boston has been famous for making the most of their drafts. Boston is misleading because they’ve done so well in the early rounds, the later round players get buried in the minors. Their current roster is stocked with early round picks: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholtz, Jonathon Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. Only Kevin Youkalis and Brandon Moss were longer shots, both being 8th rounders, and to be fair in the 2000 draft they took Freddy Sanchez in the 11th round and Kason Gabbard in the 29th round, and traded both of them for veterans during pennant races. On the other hand, Baltimore’s only recent contributors drafted by the team after the 10th round are relief pitchers John Parrish, and Kurt Birkins, and utility players Jerry Hairston Jr. and Brandon Fahey. These four look like the 1927 Yankees however,  compared to the contributions of the Royals later picks in the last 10 years. In fact, unless you’re a close personal friend of Ryan Bukvich, or Brandon Berger, over the last 10 drafts the Royals haven’t produced one substantial player in the later rounds. Mark Quinn, drafted in the 11th round of 1995, was the last player to make any impact for a franchise desperate for any impact from any player. He only had two nice seasons, played 289 games, and finished third in the 2000 rookie of the year voting.

Going back fifteen years to 1993 (the death of Ewing Kaufman), Quinn is joined only by pitchers Glendon Rusch and Jose Rosado, and catcher Sal Fasano. In the decade prior to this, when the Royals were a model franchise, and the GMs were John Scheurholtz and Joe Burke, they stocked their minors with depth from the later rounds: Joe Randa, Mike Sweeney, Mike Magnante, Jeff Conine, David Howard, Kevin Seitzer, Bret Saberhagen, Butch Davis, Renie Martin, and Ken Phelps.

No depth in the minor league system is a major hindrance. David DeJesus, a fourth rounder, is their only current Royal drafted by the franchise after the first round. It seems the Moore administration may have a better handle on the problem of development. Although they were questioned for taking Mike Moustakas with the second overall pick last year, they have added another A level team to their farm system, improved their standing in Latin America, and seem keen to establish a consistent development protocol.

To see the kind of impacts the Royals could be missing, look around the league to a lineup made of players drafted after the 10th round by their current franchises (17 different teams). Even minus a real shortstop, this team would make a good run at the World Series.

LINEUP

SS Ian Kinsler TEX 17th rnd 2003

C Russell Martin LAD 17th rnd 2002

CF Nate McLouth PIT 25th rnd 2000

1B Albert Pujols STL 13th rnd 1999

DH Jorge Posada NYY 24th rnd 1990

3B Mark Reynolds ARZ 16th rnd 2004

LF Josh Willingham FLA 17th rnd 2000

RF Brad Hawpe COL 11th rnd 2000

2B Howie Kendrick LAA 10th rnd 2002

PITCHING STAFF

SP Jake Peavy SD 15th rnd 1999

SP Roy Oswalt HOU 23rd rnd 1996

SP Mark Buerhle CWS 38th rnd 1998

SP Rich Harden OAK 17th rnd 2000

SP James Shields TB 16th rnd 2000

RP Zach Duke PIT 20th rnd 2001

RP Aaron Laffey CLE 16th rnd 2003

RP Andy Sonnanstine TB 13th rnd 2004

RP Joel Zumaya DET 11th rnd 2002

RP Scot Shields LAA 38th rnd 1997

CL Brian Wilson SF 24th rnd 2003