Roto Chronicles: American League – June 2

Is it officially time to let go of Ivan Rodriguez as a viable fantasy option?

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Jason Giambi, 1B/DH – NYY (UP) Giambi disappeared from fantasy rosters over the past year or so as he struggled to keep an average of over .250. That may be changing. His percent of ownership has been jumping of late, as Giambi has cut down on the strikeouts, and is again showcasing his great power. After a down season in which he hit only 14 home runs, Giambi currently has 11 and has actually been rather unlucky on balls in play. His BABIP of .219 is actually 45 points lower than last season when his batting average was .236. So, when this begins regressing up towards his averages, his batting average and likely his home runs will begin rising rather quickly.

• Justin Morneau, 1B – MIN (UP) The former AL MVP is on a roll right now. He has reached base successfully in 22 straight games, and over this streak has hit .375 with four home runs and 16 RBI. He has been carrying the Twins offense. After his slight down season of 2007, he again looks to be an MVP candidate. He is sporting a solid .344 BABIP, greater than his 2006 MVP season, a 16.4% HR/FB rate, similar to 2006, and an increased walk rate, now over 10% of at-bats. Whether this will be sustained is still a question, as he continues to hit more groundballs. His ISO power has actually decreased for a second consecutive year due in part to these extra grounders. Regardless, Morneau is still hitting .308 with 10 home runs and 42 RBI and is again among the top players in the league.

• B.J. Upton, OF – TB (UP) Even with the huge strikeout totals of 2007, Upton had a tremendous first full season in the majors. While the power may have been a bit exaggerated with 24 home runs last season, Upton has continued his development as a hitter. His strikeout rate has decreased from 32.5% to 23.7%, and has increased his walks to 16.2%. This has led to him getting on base more, as his OBP is now over .400. Another improvement is his stolen base ability. He has a history in the minor leagues of stealing over 40 bases, but only stole 22 last season. To date this season, Upton has 17 and is well on his way to hitting the 40-steal mark once again.

• Aaron Hill, 2B – TOR (DOWN) Hill could have gone either way this season, he was showing a progression of power, but his 2007 power was a big jump. His HR/FB in 2007 was 8.6%, before that his high was 3.6%. This season however, he has regressed to the previous totals bringing his fantasy value down right with it. Right now he has just two home runs and a 2.4% HR/FB rate. Add in only 19 runs scored, a .263 average, and a recent concussion injury and Hill is now very droppable. Scour your waiver wire and find a replacement.

• Ivan Rodriguez, C – DET (DOWN) There is not much left to “Pudge” for fantasy players to like. His power numbers have decreased yearly of late, so much so, that he now has just one home run and a 3% HR/FB rate. On top of that, Rodriguez is hitting just .251 with 20 RBI. He is now very comparable in his ability at the plate, to Kurt Suzuki, whom I suggested to drop a few weeks back. I know he is one of the all-time greats and is still in a run producing lineup, but unless you are in a two catcher league, it is time to jump ship and find a new backstop.

• Delmon Young, OF – MIN (DOWN) Want to know how somebody can become overvalued quickly. Just look at their batting average with runners in scoring position. Young somehow managed 93 RBI last season with only 13 home runs and a .288 batting average. The secret, a .349 batting average with runners in scoring position. Now that that is gone, and a little on the unlucky side, .208, Young’s value has dropped. Not to mention the fact that he is still trying to hit his first home run of the season. Overall, Young is hitting .264 with no homers and 15 RBI, but does have nine stolen bases. But even that does not help offset the damage that has already been done.

Pitchers

• Justin Duchscherer, SP – OAK (UP) The former set-up man backed up his near perfect performance against the Red Sox last week with another solid outing. It may not have been a tremendous start, allowing two runs and six hits in six innings against Texas, but the fact that he keeps giving quality starts is promising. Duchscherer has even been stretched out over 100 pitches in three of his last four starts and has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any start this season. The only hint of luck he has seen thus far is a low 4% HR/FB, other than that he has been right on par with his past. Overall he is 4-4 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

• John Lackey, SP – LAA (UP) Just as Scott Kazmir has done in his return from the DL, Lackey has been tremendous upon his activation. He has four quality starts in a row, going seven or more innings in each of them and has been remarkably efficient. His ERA stands at 1.80 and his WHIP at 1.03. This won’t be sustained in the long-term, but there is no doubt that this has been a big relief for those owners who drafted and had to stick it out for the duration of his triceps injury.

• B.J. Ryan, CL – TOR (UP) I began writing this a little soon, as B.J. blew his first save yesterday, but I feel it is still justified as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Toronto did a great job slowly placing Ryan back into the closers role, using him sparingly in April. But in the Month of May, Ryan was lights out as he reclaimed his full-time status as the Jays closer. He appeared in 12 games saving 10 with an ERA of 0.75. Overall on the season, including yesterday’s blown save, Ryan has pitched 17.2 innings with an ERA of 1.52, 12 saves, 21 strikeouts and 14 hits allowed. He again looks very close to that top flight closer we remember before his arm injury.

• Joe Blanton, SP - OAK (DOWN) To my surprise when looking, Blanton is 50% owned in leagues. He has been a fairly consistent solid starter over the past couple of years, but I was still a bit surprised. He has no strikeout value, less than 4.5 K/9, and gives up over a hit an inning because of it. His saving grace is his solid control and groundball tendencies. He is virtually a clone of a Jake Westbrook, who is only 10% owned. Over Blanton’s past three starts, he has given up more fly balls than grounders and has paid for it. His ERA in these starts is 6.50. Though to his defense, he did just face three of the top four offenses in the American League.

• Luke Hochevar, SP – KC (DOWN) A few weeks ago, the season was looking rather bright for the young starting pitcher. He was 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA. He was under control and getting outs. Since then he has struggled with his command, causing him to walk more batters, 13, than he has struck out, 9. This has been a main reason why his fielding independent ERA has jumped from 3.69 to 4.56. As a rookie, he will have his ups and downs. Keep an eye on him. Should he turn it on again he would be worth spot starting if the situation is right. Hochevar currently stands at 3-5 with a 4.98 ERA.

• J.J. Putz, CL - SEA (DOWN) Mentioned a few weeks back here in the down section, Putz returns with his second straight Sunday afternoon blown save, giving him four on the season. He only blew two all of last season. Part of the problem is a continued lack of command. In each of the past two seasons, Putz walked 13 batters. So far to date this year, he has 14 walks allowed. Along with this command problem, is the fact that his pitches are getting hit hard. Putz is giving up over 22% line drives and more fly balls than at any point in his career. His velocity is still there, but this season’s injuries, the latest being a finger problem, are definitely affecting him.

INJURY REPORT

Boston starter, Daisuke Matsuzaka, exited a start last Wednesday night with what was initially called “shoulder fatigue.” An MRI later revealed a rotator cuff strain that led to his placement on the disabled list. No timetable has been set for his return.

David Ortiz suffered a slight sprain in his wrist Saturday night when he took a swing. X-rays were negative and he is listed day-to-day.

The Angels’ infield is at it again, as third baseman Chone Figgins is now dealing with soreness in his right leg. He was officially placed on the DL as of Friday night, just in time for Howie Kendrick’s return. During his absence, Brandon Wood and Rob Quinlan will play third base.

It was only a matter of time before Troy Percival landed on the disabled list, but at least it is not any arm problems. The Rays closer will miss the next two weeks with a strained hamstring…For the time being, Dan Wheeler and Al Reyes will be the replacements.

Frank Thomas was placed on the disabled list last week with a strained right quad. He will likely return when his 15 days are up. This injury enabled the Athletics to activate Eric Chavez and place him into the lineup at DH.

Cleveland designated hitter, Travis Hafner, was officially placed on the disabled list with a shoulder strain. This may explain part of his struggling bat, but his shoulder has been a problem longer than just this season. This is not a good sign for Hafner owners.

Just as Gary Sheffield was beginning to hit, he went on the disabled list with a strained oblique muscle. He was injured while running out a grounder to shortstop. He will miss just the two weeks giving prospect Jeff Larish a shot at DH.

There is something about being a young starting pitcher in the Yankees rotation this year. With Philip Hughes already sidelined with rib issues, Ian Kennedy has followed suit with a strained lat in his rib cage. Kennedy’s is less serious than Hughes’, but it will take him out of the Yankees rotation for some time to come with Joba ready for his shot.

Hank Blalock’s carpal tunnel problem has continued to be an issue even after his cortisone shot. He underwent a surgery to relieve irritation in his wrist Friday. This will sideline him another month, giving Chris Shelton extended life at first base.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Scott Rolen, 3B – TOR The great power totals may never return, but Scott Rolen is still a solid player. He currently is hitting .310 with two home runs and 13 RBI in 129 at-bats. Rolen’s ISO power has increased over last season, hitting 12 doubles and 2 triples, in addition to the home runs. Also, Rolen has a line drive rate of 23%, and a walk total regressing back up toward previous standards. It currently stands at 10% of at-bats. A season total of .285 with 10-12 homers and 70 RBI could happen.

• Jack Cust, OF – OAK Recommended a few weeks back, Cust has continued to hit for power and is still owned in fewer than 20% of leagues. In total during the month of May, Cust has hit .303 with seven home runs and 14 RBI. And should your league utilize on-base percentage over batting average, there is no reason to not own him. Cust’s OBP, even with his .255 average, is .407. He will not keep the month of May’s pace up all season, as he is a streaky hitter, as evidenced by his poor April, but over the course of the season he will give you exactly what he has done. He will hit in the .250 range with 25-30 home runs.

• Kevin Slowey, SP – MIN Often compared to former Twin, Brad Radke, because of his quality control and his fly ball tendencies, Slowey is living up to the hype. He is coming off of back-to-back quality starts, pitching in 15 innings and allowing only one run, walking three and striking out eight. For the season he is just 2-4, but has posted a fine 3.38 ERA to go along with a great 4.0 K/BB ratio. Though, his 46.7% fly ball rate paired with a 12.2% HR/FB rate does scare you a little. In the right situation I see him as a solid spot starter. This week he will have two-starts. The first is in Minnesota against Baltimore, which looks to be a decent start, and the other is in the homer haven of Chicago. Stay away from that one.

• Dan Wheeler, RP – TB If nobody in your league already has, pull the trigger on acquiring Dan Wheeler. He will likely just be a short-term find for some extra saves. Troy Percival is scheduled to return once his 15 days are up on the DL. So in the meantime hope that Wheeler’s great start to the season lasts long enough to get you some saves. He has been rather lucky to date with a .166 BABIP and 97.9% strand rate. Still, I’d play him. Tampa is on a roll and teams always use their closer when winning and playing close games as they have been.

FUTURES MARKET

It’s time for my weekly Francisco Liriano update. He had two starts last week, one ugly start and one good one. In first start he was fine until a fifth inning mess resulted in a grand slam against him. He ended the game with 6.2 innings and six runs. His second start Saturday was solid. He pitched 6.1 innings, allowing three hits, no walks and striking out seven. If he continues to show good command, he could be up by the end of the month.

The last time I highlighted Blue Jays’ top outfield prospect, Travis Snider, he was just promoted to Double-A. He was struggling with the adjustment and striking out a ton. Well, not much has changed. He is hitting just .239 with 52 strikeouts in 142 at-bats since the promotion. Though his raw power remains, he has hit eight home runs during this time as well.

You can count out Cleveland’s top prospect for this season. Adam Miller underwent another surgery last week, this time not on his arm, but on his hand to repair a tendon in his middle finger. This is just another in a long line of injuries that continue to halt the progress of this top prospect.

With the problems that the Rangers continue to have at first base, they decided to promote their top first base prospect, Chris Davis, to Triple-A Oklahoma. He has hit at every level he has been at. Before the call-up, he was hitting .333 with 13 home runs and 42 RBI in 204 at-bats in Double-A. If Hank Blalock continues to have issues, look for Davis before the season is out to play some first for the Rangers.

I wouldn’t expect to see Clay Buchholz in the Boston rotation in the immediate future. Even with Matsuzaka going down, it looks like Justin Masterson will get another spot start Tuesday over the recovering Buchholz. In his first two starts in Triple-A since his fingernail problem that placed him on the DL, Buchholz has not been overly impressive. He has pitched a total of eight innings, only allowing five hits and striking out eight, but has walked six and has an ERA of 4.50.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

• Buy – Curtis Granderson, OF – DET Granderson is not really at a low point, but I like him as a buy at a lower value than his preseason rankings said he was worth. He remains a hitter who struggles against lefties, which you have to take into account. His numbers against right-handers over the past three years include a solid .301 average and .530 slugging percentage. To this point of 2008, Granderson has only hit .256 of off righties with a .471 SLG, not quite up to par. Why is that? Well, his BABIP of .280 is 61 points below his career average. It is not impossible that he could stay at his current rate, but I would bet it will rise. Along with an increased eye, this will give him more hits and more home runs, which is another point. Granderson is becoming more of a power hitter, hitting more fly balls, 48%, and hitting more home runs per fly ball, 12.2%. Batting at the top of the great Detroit lineup will bring in a ton of runs and the potential is there for a .290 average with 20-25 homers and 15-20 stolen bases.

• Sell – Todd Jones, CL – DET There may not be a huge value here, but I suggest trying to get what you can out of him while you can. Jones is beginning to show signs of an impending collapse. He has yet to blow a save this season, but he is continuing a trend started in 2005 of allowing more fly balls, which is up to 34%, to go along with a jump in his HR/FB rate to 12%, which nearly triples last years rate. Also, his strikeout totals are quickly diminishing, 3.6 K/9, and his walk totals are jumping back up to over four walks per nine innings, giving him the rare K/BB ratio of under 1.0. Another stat, BABIP, even suggests some luck. His BABIP against is .244 as compared to his career .311 mark. Add all of it up and there are more base runners via walk and more balls in play forthcoming that will begin to find holes in the defense. Plus, with the increased possibility for home runs allowed, blown saves may be coming very soon.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL SECOND BASEMAN

1. B.J. Upton, TB
2. Ian Kinsler, TEX
3. Brian Roberts, BAL
4. Chone Figgins, LAA
5. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
6. Robinson Cano, NYY
7. Howie Kendrick, LAA
8. Placido Polanco, DET
9. Jose Lopez, SEA
10. Akinori Iwamura, TB

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.