Will the Real Diamondbacks Please Stand Up?
Is Arizona a real contender, or a year away?
We’re getting to that point in the season when things begin to take a reasonable shape. After almost 70 games, you start to get a sense of who’s going to be in this thing for the long haul. There are exceptions to this, of course, just look at what the Rockies did last season. But by and large what teams and players are now, they’re going to be for the rest of the season.
One major exception at this point is the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’ve been up; they’ve been down; they’ve been all around. Where will they be in September? Last night the team fell to the Mets, 5-3, when Carlos Beltran hit a two-run, walk-off homer in the 13th innings. The loss dropped Arizona’s road record to 14-19, an ominous sign for a team with postseason aspirations.
But in a division in which they are the only team with a winning record, the Diamondbacks seem destined to make a playoff appearance. Whether they actually do anything once they are there remains to be seen. April was a month of sunshine for this team. At one point they won 9 in a row and were 21-9 on May 3. Brandon Webb was the NL’s pitcher of the month with a record of 7-0, and the team was among the best in baseball. But May began a swoon that has lasted into June. The team has gone 14-22 since that high-water mark, a downturn that has brought this young club back to reality.
Where has it gone wrong for Arizona? In a word, offense. In their past sixteen games, of which they have won only five, the team has scored more than five runs only once, and have averaged 3.5 runs per game. For the last month the team is 12th, 13th, and 14th in the National League in runs, total bases and OBP. The biggest problem for this team is strikeouts; the team is third in the National League in K’s for the season and three D-Backs are in the top 10 in K’s in the. This has led to the low OBP, of which only two regulars (Auggie Ojeda and Conor Jackson) have cracked .400. There’s also a lack of team speed; no Diamondback is in the top 50 in steals.
But as bad as the offense has been for the past month, it was just as good in April. The team, in spite of its recent slump, is still 5th in the NL in runs scored. It also helps when the team trailing you in the division, the Dodgers, are right there with you when it comes to offensive futility.
The Diamondbacks’ strength comes from its pitching staff. This is no surprise to anyone since an offseason trade brought Dan Haren over from Oakland. And of course Arizona’s staff is led by Brandon Webb, who has an 11-2 record so far. The rotation has also been bolstered by the emergence of two other pitchers, one old and one new. There were many (including myself) who thought that Randy Johnson’s tank was empty. But with a 4-3 record and an ERA of 4.10 in 11 starts, he’s proven to be a valuable number four starter. The emergence of Micah Owings as a number three guy has also helped. Owings is 6-4 despite an ERA of 4.72 and a team-leading 10 home runs allowed. The bullpen has been anchored by closer Brandon Ryan. Finally given the job full-time, Ryan has responded with 14 saves in 16 opportunities and an ERA of 1.38. Overall, the team is 2nd in the NL in ERA. They’ve done this by keeping the ball in the park (15th in HRs allowed) and by striking batters out (4th in Ks).
It’s hard to predict what the Diamondbacks will do this season. The division title seems to be a lock, unless another Rockies-like miracle finish is conjured up. The Dodgers are even more inept on offense and their pitching staff is not nearly as strong. The Padres and Rockies appear to have fallen into some sort of black hole. But Arizona is still a very young team, with most of its key players under 30. Although the team advanced to the LCS last season, it’s hard to imagine them repeating that success. Arizona may be partially seasoned, but they’re still a year away.
