Roto Chronicles: American League - June 16

Now is the time to pick up Francisco Liriano…

With each passing start you have to wonder how close Francisco Liriano is to returning to the Twin’s rotation. Especially with Nick Blackburn possibly headed to the DL and both Livan Hernandez and Glen Perkins struggling. Liriano finished another positive week pitching 13.1 innings striking out 12, walking one and allowing just three earned runs. The best news is that the control issues are gone. Liriano has walked one or zero in six of his past seven starts. And over his past four starts, Liriano has a 2.45 ERA and 26 strikeouts. Now is the time to grab and stash until the inevitable recall happens. The rumor-mills say it could happen this weekend.

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Johnny Damon, OF – NYY (UP) Johnny Damon is turning into quite a bargain this season. Many, including myself were convinced that his career was slowing, but with a recent hot streak and a clean bill of health, Damon has proved doubters wrong. His power numbers are back up, he is continuing to show plate discipline, and he is still stealing bases. For the season Damon is hitting .328 with six home runs, 31 RBI, 43 runs, and 12 stolen bases. He is once again a stat sheet stuffer. Just know that his average is likely to fall a bit. His BABIP is forty-five points higher than his career mark.

• Manny Ramirez, OF – BOS (UP) The man just keeps on hitting. After a rare down season for the jovial slugger, Ramirez is again tearing up the American League. So far in the month of June, Ramirez is hitting .375 with five home runs, 14 RBI and has more walks than strikeouts. And for the season has a .301 batting average with 15 HR and 49 RBI. His HR/FB rate is back up to 19.2 percent and his BABIP remains very good, .339. He may never again be as dominant as he was during the prime of his career, but he is still pretty darn good. For those of you who did not agree with his pre-season doubters who said he was quickly regressing because of his age, congratulations on a great pick.

• Grady Sizemore, OF – CLE (UP) Already a star, Grady may be ready to take his game to the next level. Just in time for a struggling Indians offense. Sizemore has hit nine home runs over his past sixteen games, raising his total for the season to 17. He is well on his way to passing his career high of 28 from 2006. On top of increased power, Sizemore continues to steal bases, and show increased plate awareness. His BB-to-K ratio is now up to .86, the highest of is young career. And as soon as his BABIP of .275 catches back up towards his career .328 mark, Sizemore potentially could post his first .300 season.

• Torii Hunter, OF – LAA (DOWN) After a tremendous April, Hunter has continued to fall backwards since. His OPS in April was .912, while his OPS in May fell to .762. And through half of June. Hunter’s monthly OPS has fallen again, to .677. While this trend cannot continue in this direction much longer, what we once thought in April is now a distant memory. I still believe that Hunter will snap out of his current funk and be a solid buy candidate. He continues to show normal plate discipline, GB/FB rate, BABIP among others. The main difference is his decreased HR/FB rate of 12.5 percent. In the end we will likely see the Hunter of 2004 (.271 AVG/23HR/81RBI/21SB) rather than the recent versions of 2006 and 2007.

• Jhonny Peralta, SS – CLE (DOWN) As hot as Grady Sizemore has been for the Indians, Peralta has been that cold. Peralta has hit just .206 and struck out 13 times to only two walks in June. The saving grace to Peralta and his value has been his increased power production. He has eleven home runs on the season, but none since May 28th. With his recent struggles, Peralta’s name will likely begin popping up on many leagues’ drop lists. If so, I wouldn’t hesitate to look at him as an option to pick up. With a very poor BABIP of .249 as compared to his career .321, Peralta will come around. He may not hit for a very high average, likely in the .260-.270 range, but with increasing power and a decreasing strikeout rate, I still like him from here on out.

• Edgar Renteria, SS – DET (DOWN) Remember Edgar Renteria as a Red Sox player? That’s pretty much where this season is again headed for Renteria, at least offensively. To date Renteria is hitting .274 with five home runs, 31 RBI and an OPS of .686, which is 35 points lower than his Red Sox season. Part of the problem is a decrease in power. He is still hitting home runs at a normal rate, but somehow has a total of just five doubles after averaging nearly forty per season over the past five years. It is very perplexing, especially in a good double and triples ballpark such as Detroit. Plus, Renteria had stopped stealing bases, with just one on the season. If he doesn’t start doing either soon, his value will continue to drop.

Pitchers

• Dustin McGowan, SP – TOR (UP) Overshadowed by Roy Halladay and the overall success of the Toronto rotation, Dustin McGowan is having a fine season himself. He is 5-4 with a 3.92 ERA. That may not jump out at you, but over his past six starts, McGowan is 3-1 with a 3.26 ERA. After struggling with some early season command issues, McGowan looks to have finally figured it out. He has not walked more than two batters over his past four starts. He is also inducing 45 percent ground balls, limiting home runs allowed with a 4.5 percent HR/FB ratio, and striking out 7.09 batters per nine innings as compared to walking 3.39 per nine. His success is real and improving.

• Andy Sonnanstine, SP – TB (UP) Sonnanstine has to be one of the most underrated pitchers in the league. He has great control and a reasonable strikeout rate to go along with a 43 percent ground ball tendency. Add in an unlucky strand rate of 62.7 percent and a high BABIP of .343 that likely will regress downward a little and you have a pitcher who may end up closer to an ERA around 4.00 than to his near 5.00 ERA that he currently has. With a 7-3 record, he needs to be owned in more than 10 percent of leagues that he is currently owned in.

• Justin Verlander, SP – DET (UP) If you stuck it out with Verlander, you are now reaping some rewards, at least with the ERA and WHIP. He remains only 3-9 on the season due to some very poor run support, but over Verlander’s past six starts, he is 2-3 with a 2.57 ERA. In his last start against the White Sox, he threw his first complete game of the season allowing only one run on four hits. With the Tigers offense starting to click and winning some games, look for Verlander to start racking up some wins for himself. Now if only he could start producing strikeouts once again, but hey, for us Verlander owners at least we now have some quality starts.

• Daniel Cabrera, SP – BAL (DOWN) The last time I checked in on Daniel Cabrera, he was in the midst of a hot streak that found him in the 3.50 range with his ERA. Well, one month later, the real Cabrera is back, but without the strikeouts. He is only striking out 4.82 batters per nine innings, nearly half of totals of 2005 and 2006. In yesterday’s start against the Pirates, Cabrera did pitch six innings, but gave up four runs on six hits while walking five. And in three of his past five starts, Cabrera has walked four or more batters. On the season Cabrera now stands at 5-2 with a 4.45 ERA. As I suggested last time, stay away. He has no history of consistent control.

• Livan Hernandez, SP – MIN (DOWN) The veteran innings-eater is completely frustrated at this point. He is no longer able to get strikeouts, under three per nine innings or get anybody consistently out in general, opposition is hitting .355 against Hernandez. His ERA on the season now stands at 5.84, and over his past five starts his ERA is 12.09 as he has allowed five or more runs in each of them. Somehow, Hernandez remains 10 percent owned in ESPN leagues. If you have him, drop him now and find a replacement ASAP, Hernandez has no value left.

• Greg Smith, SP – OAK (DOWN) Still having a fine rookie season, Smith is now running into his first real adversity of the season. Over his past three starts, Smith is 1-1 with a 6.61 ERA and is beginning to show command issues. Even though his last start against San Francisco was in the win column, allowing a run on four hits in five innings, he did allow six walks. And on the season he is allowing 3.73 walks per nine innings. Without overpowering stuff, Smith needs to keep this number down to stay successful. Smith remains a solid spot start solution, especially at home, but monitor him closely.

INJURY REPORT

Mariner’s closer, J.J. Putz, has again been placed on the 15-day disabled list. This time with a hyper-extended right elbow that forced him to exit an appearance last Wednesday. The Mariners were holding out hope that he could avoid the DL, but the decision was made to wait two weeks and give it some time to heal. Even with this rest, Putz’ fantasy value has nosedived rather quickly this season and you have to wonder how effective he may remain after his return.

Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang suffered a sprained foot running the bases Sunday. He will undergo an MRI today and likely find himself on the 15-day disabled list. This was not very good timing as Wang was just turning the corner from his recent struggles. This will likely take the opportunity for 20 wins away, but Wang will still be a very good option upon returning.

A swing of the bat caused Victor Martinez’ elbow to pop and force him out of a game and onto the disabled list with elbow inflammation. It is bad enough that surgery was scheduled to remove bone chips from the elbow, which will cause him to be out six to eight weeks. Add to this hamstring problems and a sore right shoulder and we now know where Victor’s power went.

Another rather big injury was to Paul Konerko. He suffered an intercostals strain, the same injury Jake Westbrook was sidelined with for 3-4 weeks earlier in the season, He has yet to be officially placed on the disabled list, but the move is likely to happen Tuesday. This will have a domino effect as Nick Swisher will be moved to first and speedster Jerry Owens will be recalled to play some outfield.

As some big names go on the disabled list, another big name will be returning. Daisuke Matsuzaka will make a rehab start for Triple-A Pawtucket tonight and is scheduled to be activated by the Red Sox for Saturday’s game against the Cardinals at Fenway. Great news for Matsuzaka owners.

Designated hitters Frank Thomas and Travis Hafner are still gearing for returns in the near future, but continue to suffer setbacks. The timetable for both of them is now into July. Continue to beware of Hafner, word is that this rest will not be enough to completely heal the shoulder.

The Tiger’s are finally welcoming back their bullpen this week. Joel Zumaya has been solid in his rehab appearances and has been hitting 100 MPH on the radar gun. He is scheduled to be activated Friday while his bullpen partner Fernando Rodney will be activated tonight. Rodney has struggled in his rehab, but the Tigers felt good enough about it and are desperate for some help.

Angel’s shortstop Erik Aybar will begin a rehab assignment this week after a hand specialist cleared him to begin play. He took some batting practice and if all goes will likely return next week. We will have to see who gets the playing time upon his activation. Maicer Izturis may have played himself into the job of late.

The Carpal Tunnel in Hank Blalock’s wrist has healed enough to begin a rehab assignment tonight. He will likely only be down for a series before returning for the weekend. He will take over first base duties and kick Chris Shelton either to the bench or off of the team.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Maicer Izturis, 2B/SS – LAA Should you find yourself ailing in your middle infield, Izturis is a solid option you should look at. He has found his hitting stroke and with the injury to Erik Aybar, may have played himself into the starting shortstop position. Had a 13-game hitting streak snapped last night, and is hitting .383 with two home runs, 12 RBI and two stolen bases since May 31st. As long as he stays near the top of the Angels lineup, he will be worthy of play in mixed leagues. He should be able to hit around .275 and provide some runs and solid speed, but don’t bet on the recent power continuing.

• Luke Scott, OF – BAL Scott is another hot waiver wire player who should be picked up. He has continued to fly under the radar and provide pretty good power numbers along with a very decent average. He is hitting .281 with 11 home runs and 26 RBI. The fact that he was platooned against lefties was holding him back, but the Orioles have decided to give him more time against southpaws and hope that he will show improvement. Regardless, he will be getting full-time play, and should be added to rosters. His play is not a fluke.

• Armando Galarraga, SP – DET You could argue that Galarraga has been Detroit’s best pitcher to date this season. He is 6-2 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Certainly unexpected since he had mixed success in the minor leagues with only seven starts above Double-A before his call up. But his very low line drive rate of 13.4 percent has been a contributing factor to his outstanding .178 batting average against. While that rate is not going to be sustained, Galarraga is developing into a viable option for fantasy leaguers. He has a favorable start in San Francisco this Wednesday where the Giants are among the NL’s worst against right-handed pitchers.

• Brandon Morrow, RP – SEA Most likely already gone from most leagues, Morrow is worthy of ownership in al leagues. With J.J. Putz continuing to struggle on the field and with various injuries, we do not know how effective he will be the rest of the season. Thus, Morrow and his microscopic 1.00 ERA need to be owned. Morrow is an extreme strikeout pitcher, currently over 12 per nine innings with some control issues which have actually not bee that bad this season. He currently is walking only 3.5 per nine innings as compared to over seven last season. If he keeps that under control, he will continue to be dominant.

FUTURES MARKET

A name that likely will not have any value this season to fantasy leaguers, but will next season, Matt Wieters, continues to mash the ball in Single-A and climb prospect charts. On projectprospect.com Wieters is now ranked the third best prospect in all of baseball. It’s a bit of a surprise that he has not been promoted to Double-A yet, for the season he is hitting .350 with 14 home runs, 38 RBI and has a 38-to-41 walk to strikeout ratio.

How fast can thing go wrong for a pitching prospect? Nick Adenhart was pitching his way into a major league job in early May, but since that three starts struggle with the Angels, he has been sent back down and has produced a 8.80 ERA in six starts and has given up 37 hits over his last 19.1 innings of work. I don’t think he will be getting another shot for a while.

It has been a very frustrating season for, Jose Tabata, one of the Yankee’s top prospects. He has been disciplined multiple times for various reasons and has struggled with a .239 batting average in his first season in Double-A. Not only has his average been low, but also in 226 at-bats, Tabata has only nine extra-base hits and only one is a home run.

Too bad for David Purcey there are no spots available in the Toronto rotation. Purcey has had a tremendous year for Triple-A Syracuse going 6-4 with a 2.41 ERA and 80 strikeouts in 74.2 innings. The 26-year-old lefty deserves a shot in a rotation, more than the spot starts that he had in April. Maybe he will be a player who will be on the move next month.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

• Buy - Adrian Beltre, 3B – SEA Beltre after a great April has slumped ever since. Since then he has hit just .184 lowering his average 63 points to .227. Yet, with that decreasing average, Beltre as actually increased power production. For the season, Beltre has hit 14 home runs based on a 16 percent HR/FB rate, the highest since his great 2004 season with the Dodgers. On top of the power, Beltre has also increased his walk rate and continued hitting line drives at a normal rate. As soon as he snaps out of this current average problem, Beltre will definitely be a third baseman to watch out for again.

• Sell - Gavin Floyd, SP –CHW The honeymoon period of consistent quality starts may be nearing an end for the Chicago right-hander. Floyd still has not had that one terrible outing, but he is consistently giving up the long ball, allowing a home run in five consecutive starts including four in his last outing against the Rockies. This has caused his HR/FB rate, 11.4 percent, to creep closer to his career 14.7 percent rate. Plus, he is still magically producing an unsustainable .198 BABIP as compared to his .279 career rate. That will not continue and when it begins faltering, watch out. With the lack of strikeouts and a high number of home runs allowed things will get ugly. His ERA will begin jumping closer and closer to his fielding independent ERA of 5.13.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL THIRD BASEMAN

1. Alex Rodriguez, NYY
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET
3. Kevin Youkilis, BOS
4. Joe Crede, CHW
5. Mike Lowell, BOS
6. Carlos Guillen, DET
7. Chone Figgins, LAA
8. Evan Longoria, TB
9. Alex Gordon, KC
10. Adrian Beltre. SEA

…

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.