Roto Chronicles: American League - June 23

Marcus Thames slugs his way onto fantasy rosters everywhere…

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Orlando Cabrera, SS – CHW (UP) After a very poor April where Cabrera hit .216, his bat has continued to heat up since, hitting .265 in May, and .356 in June. Cabrera is now right where we should have expected him to be while playing in Chicago. He is hitting .274, and continuing to steal bases while hitting for more home runs. The extra power is aided by the great right-handed power park that he plays in. Four of his six home runs have come at U.S. Cellular Field. He is on pace to hit more than ten home runs for the first time since 2003. Cabrera could even have a shot at hitting 15 home runs while stealing 15 bases. The closest he has ever come to this was in 2001 when he hit .276 with 14 home runs and 19 steals.

• Alex Rodriguez, 3B – NYY (UP) This is the first time that I have had to mention Alex Rodriguez for his play this season. He has been consistently very good, but had yet to have that great hot streak that we have seen from him many times before. In June, Rodriguez has hit .408 with seven home runs, 20 RBI, and three stolen bases. This gives him a .332 average with 14 home runs, 41 RBI and nine stolen bases on the season. This is all that more impressive when you remember that he missed three weeks of of the season with a quadriceps injury. He is again back into the discussions for American League MVP.

• Marcus Thames, OF – DET (UP) Thames finally had a couple of base hits over the weekend that were not home runs. At one point he had seven straight hits that all went over the fence. On the season Thames is hitting just .262, but has 14 home runs in 130 at-bats. With Jaque Jones jettisoned off, and Gary Sheffield continuing to struggle to stay in the lineup, Thames has been given every day opportunities to show what he can do. What that is, is hit for great power. Thames is currently hitting 25 percent of fly balls for home runs, showing a better eye than ever before, and having some bad luck on balls in play for hits. His BABIP is only .230 as compared to his .260 career mark. Once he starts getting more of the non-home run type of balls falling in, watch out.

• Melky Cabrera, OF – NYY (DOWN) Cabrera is quickly falling into that AL-only designation as he continues to have a decreasing average along with league average peripherals. On the season, Cabrera is now hitting just .254, the lowest of his career. He also is striking out at slightly higher rates, and attempting fewer steals. Cabrera has has developed into more of a power hitter mold, if you can call it that, at the expense of his average. He is hitting more fly balls, 37 percent, and is hitting more over the fence. 8.5 percent HR/FB. Still, he has just seven home runs on the season. Should he get average back up, I’d add as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but until then leave him on the waiver wire.

• Kenji Johjima, C – SEA (DOWN) The end of the road with Johjima as the Seattle catcher has quickly come as the team changes management regimes. With top prospect Jeff Clement being recalled to play the majority of the time behind the plate, Johjima will be finding himself taking some grounders at first base. That will give him another position eligibility, but a worthless one at that. He is not even that valuable as a catcher right now. Johjima is only hitting .218 with two home runs this season after signing a new contract extension with the Mariners.

• Ryan Garko, 1B – CLE (DOWN) Expected by many to bust out this season and be a cheaper source of power production, Garko has been a huge disappointment, much like the entire Indians offense. There have been flashes of his potential, but Garko has been unable to string anything together. He has only hit six home runs to go along with a .255 batting average. He is however a worthy player to put on your watch list should he get hot. He has shown a better eye at the plate and has a higher percent of line drives than previous years. His 19 percent line drive rate should transfer into a higher BABIP than his current .281 average.

Pitchers

• Mark Buehrle, SP – CHW (UP) He will never be the Buehrle of old, but what he is, is a valuable pitcher. Buehrle continues to put up fantasy numbers just worthy enough to be owned in mixed leagues. His strikeouts are at a low level, 5.15 K/9, but he has good command and is getting a great number of ground balls, 49 percent of balls in play. In his last seven starts, Buehrle is 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA. With the White Sox again playing like a contender, Buehrle should get plenty of opportunities to supply your team with some wins.

• Rich Harden, SP – OAK (UP) Harden has put together quite a stretch of pitching without an injury. He’s not had any issues since the back problems in late April. Over his past seven starts, Harden is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 44.1 innings. If he can continue to stay on the field, Harden is poised to have his best season to date. He is experiencing career bests in K/9, line drive rate, and HR/FB. If you own him enjoy the ride while you can, you never know when any injury may pop up.

• Felix Hernandez, SP – SEA (UP) Hernandez go up, Hernandez go down, Hernandez go back up. It has been a tale of three months for King Felix. He had a 2.22 ERA in April, followed by a 4.58 ERA in May, and now a 1.27 ERA in June. I guess that’s what you get with youth. We have come to expect it from Hernandez anyway. We’ll have to see if this coaster will go back down the hill again, but in the meantime enjoy the strikeout totals with the solid ERA. But be wary that he has not totally improved this season. Hernandez has shown a career worst K/BB ratio of 2.39, fly ball rate of 30.7 percent and a significant drop in the luck metric, HR/FB, which will likely rise back up towards norms soon.

• Jose Contreras, SP – CHW (DOWN) Just as I was again a believer in Contreras and his nasty slider, he goes out and puts up some real stinkers. He has now three straight starts that have led to losses on his record. In these starts Contreras has a 10.13 ERA and 30 hits allowed in 16 innings. And what is most disturbing is the four home runs allowed in his last two starts. As a ground ball pitcher he must keep the ball down or else he will get killed. However, Contreras does remain a solid fantasy option for the foreseeable future. He is still producing a career high ground ball rate and showing increased command. You may want to sit him for the next start to see how he reacts from his latest beating, but I do not drop him yet.

• Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP – BOS (DOWN) Wow. What a letdown that was on Saturday. In his return from the disabled list, Matsuzaka lasted only one plus innings while allowing seven runs. He said that he felt fine, but that kind of beating makes you wonder. Matsuzaka was due for some regression from his early season success that led him to amass an 8-0 record with a very high walk rate. Going into that start his fielding independent ERA was 3.95 as compared to his true ERA of 2.53. Let’s hope this one bad start gets it out of his system and he continues on as one of the leagues best pitchers.

• C.J. Wilson, CL – TEX (DOWN) Rangers manager Ron Washington has plainly said it. C.J. Wilson’s job as the closer is in serious jeopardy. Wilson has continued to backpedal since his great start to the season. He has allowed two or more runs in three of his last five appearances, including one loss. He has continued to struggle with command, 4.6 BB/9, while showing less strikeout ability, 6.9 K/9, down from 8.3 K/9 last season. Be very nervous if you own him. He is a blown save away from having little to no value.

INJURY REPORT

Erik Bedard left his start after three scoreless innings with back spasms. This is the second injury of the season for Bedard, though neither has been attributed to his arm, which is always a good thing. He is listed as day-to-day for right now and should make his next start.

Out of nowhere we found out that Shaun Marcum has been pitching for a couple of weeks with a strain in his elbow. He will be re-evaluated this week to determine if any damage has been done. For now, he will sit on the 15-day disabled list until further notice.

Look for first baseman Carlos Pena to be back very soon. He is to meet with the team doctor for an evaluation and if all goes well he could be back by the end of the week. In the meantime, Pena has been participating in infield practice and been taking some light swings.

Maybe this will be the time when Hank Blalock returns to the Ranger lineup. We have seen this before. Barring anymore unforeseen injuries or setbacks to the carpal tunnel problem, Blalock will be back in the lineup at first base Tuesday night.

As the Rangers welcome one back, one is headed to the shelf as catcher Gerald Laird injured his hamstring Friday night landing him on the disabled list. This is great news for Jarrod Saltalamacchia. He is now worthy of mixed league ownership.

Waiting for Travis Hafner and Fausto Carmona to come back from the disabled list? Well, you’ll have to wait longer as Hafner continues to show no progress in his shoulder and Carmona felt soreness in his injured hip after a simulated game last week. Nether have a timetable for a return at this point.

An already strong Angels pitching staff will soon become stronger as Kelvim Escobar will begin a rehab assignment this week. It’s likely he would start out coming out of the bullpen because of the lack of space in the rotation, but keep an eye on him. If he gets back into the rotation, he could be a sleeper for the last couple of months of the season.

Just as I was getting suckered into buying into Bartolo Colon’s come back, he goes and gets hurt again. At least it is minor back stiffness that will only keep him out the 15 days. This will allow Justin Masterson to stick in the big leagues just a bit longer.

Gary Sheffield will be returning to the hot Tigers’ lineup likely on Tuesday as the team returns hop from the west coast trip. He will be inserted right back into the DH role as Jeff Larish will get his playing time cut.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Mike Aviles, SS – KC Where did this guy come from? Ranked 28th by Baseball America of Royals prospects, Aviles was hanging on at Triple-A Omaha. Finally, with Tony Pena continuing to hit under .200, the Royals decided to give him a shot and he has not disappointed. Aviles is showing good contact striking out only 14 percent of the time, along with a 21.2 percent line drive rate. This has translated well into his .328 batting average. Add in some pop to his bat and the Royals have a shortstop who has a chance to stick for the foreseeable future. At this point he is worth a flyer as we find out what he has to offer.

• David DeJesus, OF – KC He may never have that big breakout season, but this is close enough. DeJesus is showing the best power of his career, 12 percent HR/FB, and a very solid line drive rate of 24 percent that has translated into a .319 BABIP. Add this to an 11 percent strikeout rate and DeJesus’ batting average is for real. Over the course of the season, look for at least an average of .295 with 15 home runs and double digits steals. Not a top fantasy player by any means, but surely someone who can be a third or fourth outfielder who can help your team in multiple categories.

• Matt Garza, SP – TB After a poor start to the 2008 season, Garza looks to be finally righting the ship. In his last six starts, Garza is 3-3, but has a 3.34 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 37.2 innings. This is a great sign as he was having problems striking anybody out through the first six weeks or so. Going forward Garza should be a solid back of the rotation starter in mixed leagues. His next start will be Thursday night against the Marlins whom he dominated the last time they faced, allowing only one run on three hits in seven innings.

• Eddie Guardado, RP – TEX As stated earlier, C.J. Wilson is likely to lose his job any day now. Thus, be ready to snatch up Eddie Guardado from the waiver wire. He has become the favorite because of his past experience and better control. Plus, who else is there. Not sure how much of an upgrade Guardado is, his K/BB ratio is not much better than Wilson, 1.88 to 1.50. Also, Guardado is a fly ball pitcher in a batter friendly park. However you slice it up, neither are great options as a closer. But the fact remains that Guardado may very soon get the save chances for all of those searching for some cheap saves.

FUTURES MARKET

Just as the Twins stated that they wanted Francisco Liriano to pitch more quality games before recalling their left hander, he went out Friday night and gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings, with two home runs allowed. He did however strikeout seven to only one walk.

Texas seems to deep at the catcher position as another, Max Ramirez, is having a terrific season. He has been in the Double-A Texas league where he has bust out to a .362 batting average with 16 home runs. He only hit 16 all of last season in Single-A. Twice traded by the Braves and Indians, Ramirez is now getting his chance with in the majors with Gerald Laird on the disabled list.

One of the many young arms in the Tampa Bay system, Jeremy Hellickson, is quickly moving up the prospect charts. In high A-ball, Hellickson has compiled a 6-1 record, 2.21 ERA and a ridiculous 79 to 5 strikeout to walk ratio in 69.2 innings. With that amount of success, he should be on to Double-A very soon.

Just as I was ready to discuss how well Adam Lind was hitting in Triple-A, the Blue Jays go and call him up. On the season with Syracuse, Lind hit .328 with six home runs and 50 RBI. Upon being promoted, Lind went out and it a home run against Ian Snell on Sunday.

Tiger top prospect, Rick Porcello, has continued to throw very well in his first season as a pro. With Single-A Lakeland, Porcello is just 3-6, but has a fine 2.96 ERA. He continues to get extreme numbers of ground balls with his combination of fastball and slider. However, the strikeout numbers have not been there, only 44 in 79.1 innings.

Since his demotion, Billy Butler continues to hit. In 89 at-bats with Triple-A Omaha, Butler is hitting .382 with five home runs and 13 RBI. With Ross Gload still struggling, how much longer will it be before the Royals come calling on Butler again?

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Buy – Jason Kubel, OF – MIN Jason Kubel is continuing to fly under the radar. He has hit .265 with ten home runs and 38 RBI thus far, and is taking playing time away from the punchless Delmon Young. Over the past month while playing on a more regular basis, Kubel has hit .289 with five home runs and 17 RBI. With this production, the Twins have no reason to keep him out of the lineup anymore. He has become a genuine power hitter, hitting 41 percent fly balls with 13.5 percent of them leaving the yard. He does not project as a great average hitter, but if you need some power from a guy who will not hurt your average, Kubel could hit .275 with 20-25 home runs this season. This is a very cheap deal you could make right now, or maybe even find on waivers.

Sell – Milton Bradley, OF – TEX As much as I want to believe in Bradley and his most recent success, as a fantasy player who desires to minimize risk, Bradley is one we should look at selling. He could go on to play the full season and have his career season, but I do not want to take that chance. He has played in 140 or more games only once in his career and that was four years ago with the Dodgers. Other than that he has only played in more than 100 games one other time, 2003 with the Indians. Now over the last week we have seen Bradley on the bench due to a strained left quad. This is on top of other minor issues that have dealt with a sore shoulder, spasms in his hamstring, and runs-ins with an umpire and broadcaster. It may be a matter of time before one of these instances puts him out for a while, but before it happens, try to minimize your risk.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 20 ELIGIBLE AL OUTFIELDERS

1. Josh Hamilton, TEX
2. Manny Ramirez, BOS
3. Grady Sizemore, CLE
4. Carlos Quentin, CHW
5. Milton Bradley, TEX
6. J.D. Drew, BOS
7. B.J. Upton, TB
8. Carl Crawford, TB
9. Ichiro Suzuki, SEA
10. Magglio Ordonez, DET
11. Vladimir Guerrero, LAA
12. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
13. Nick Markakis, BAL
14. Jermaine Dye, CHW
15. Johnny Damon, NYY
16. Bobby Abreu, NYY
17. Torii Hunter, LAA
18. Alex Rios, TOR
19. Curtis Granderson, DET
20. Hideki Matsui, NYY

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.