Roto Chronicles: American League - June 30

Three Tampa Bay Rays are moving up the charts, find out which three in this weeks AL Roto Chronicles…

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Carl Crawford, OF – TB (UP) Since serving his four-game suspension and giving his knee a break, Crawford has been on fire. He has hit .347 with four home runs and 11 RBI. He is showing the first signs of a power stroke that had been virtually missing this season. While I wouldn’t expect this power trend to continue as such, the overall batting average will continue to rise. On the season Crawford has shown more discipline and increased contact rates. This will allow the batting average to again creep up into the .300 range.

• Evan Longoria, 3B – TB (UP) Those who took the chance on Longoria and waited out his May slump are reaping the rewards. He has adjusted to major league pitching quite well. Longoria is hitting .271 with 15 home runs, 47 RBI and 41 runs scored. Seven of these home runs have come in the month of June. He will undoubtedly have some more ups and downs due to his high 26 percent strikeout rate, but with each passing day, the 2008 Longoria is getting closer to looking like the 2007 Ryan Braun.

• Vladimir Guerrero, OF – LAA (UP) While I still believe that Vladimir Guerrero is in the decline phase in his career, what looked much worse six weeks ago has been righted. I was ready to write off Guerrero and his early season slump. He was continuing to show less power, a decreasing BABIP, and was now showing an increasing strikeout rate. While the strikeout rate is still higher than at any point in his career, he has bounced back in both the power department and BABIP. His HR/FB is back above 15 percent and his BABIP is over .300. For the month of June, Guerrero is hitting .395 with six home runs and 15 RBI. I would expect his number to level off right about where they are, around a .290 average, with a shot at 30 home runs and 100 RBI.

• Eric Chavez, 3B – OAK (DOWN) Same old story with Chavez. There are a few flashes of what he used too be, but his inability to stay healthy leads to a lack of production. Since returning Chavez has only hit .259 with two home runs, including just three hits over his last 21 at-bats. His most recent slump is directly correlated to a recurrence of soreness in his surgically repaired shoulder from this past off-season. This is also likely to explain the continued decrease in power, increase in ground balls hit. If you have not already, I would move on and just put Chavez on your watch list until he actually proves he is ok.

• Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C – TEX (DOWN) When Gerald Laird went down to an injury, this was supposed to be the time for Saltalamacchia to seize the day and win the full-time job. What has he done? Well, since taking over every day, Salty as I will call him, has just three hits in 20 at-bats. For the season he is now just hitting .214 with three home runs and 16 RBI. The main reason for this is a terribly high 35 percent strikeout rate. There is virtually no chance that he will ever have a decent batting average until he finds a way to cut down on those. Plus, the tremendous power has not been there. He has a very modest 8.3 percent HR/FB rate. Pass on him and find catcher help elsewhere.

• Jason Varitek, C – BOS (DOWN) The captain is having a month to forget at the plate. Varitek has hit just .127 with a home run and five RBI. This has brought his average all of the way down to .225 on the season. He should still be owned in two catcher leagues, but I wouldn’t have very high expectations for him the rest of the way. His eye has decreased, as his walks have gone down while still striking out 27 percent of the time. He also has a very low line drive rate of 12 percent, which should rise, but in the end I would not expect much more than a .250 average with 13-15 home runs.

Pitchers

• Justin Duchscherer, SP – OAK (UP) He just keeps on looking better and better each start he makes. Duchscherer has now lowered his league leading ERA under 2.00 and is looking like a top of the line fantasy pitcher. He has lost some of his strikeout ability in his conversion to a starter, but continues to show ground ball tendencies, great control and a knack for keeping the ball inside of the yard. I would expect some regression as the season goes along, his line drive rate of 22.6 percent should be leading to a much higher BABIP than .229. Plus, will his arm continue to hold up for the remainder of the season? These are both valid reasons to maybe start shopping the right-hander. Though, right now I stick with him. He is one of the hottest pitchers in the game.

• Matt Garza, SP – TB (UP) Listed last week in the waiver section of this column, Garza has moved into the UP section. Garza showcased his skills in a one hit dominant performance with ten strikeouts against the Marlins last week. In his past three starts covering 22 innings, Garza has an ERA of 2.05 with 21 strikeouts and only four walks. He will obviously not continue this sort of success in the long haul, but I would continue to expect numbers good enough to be a back of the rotation starter on any fantasy team. He should finish the season somewhere in the range of 13-14 wins with an ERA around 4.00.

• C.C. Sabathia, SP – CLE (UP) A truly remarkable season is being masked by a lack of run support and a horrible four starts. On April 13th, Sabathia was 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA. Since that date, Sabathia has compiled a 6-5 record, but has an ERA of 1.96. He also leads the league with 118 strikeouts. If not for the terrible Cleveland offense, Sabathia would easily have at least 2-3 more wins. On the season, Sabathia is showing exactly the same ratios as last season, with more strikeouts, and more walks. Though the walks increase is directly driven from his poor start to the season. Over his past 13 starts, Sabathia has 18 total walks. That’s it. If there remains any doubt that C.C. Sabathia can’t handle pressure, then someone isn’t paying attention.

• Edwin Jackson, SP – TB (DOWN) The only reason Edwin Jackson should be looked at is if you need a spot start when he has a favorable match-up. He has no baseline of skills that present Jackson as a must own. He has a poor 1.36 K/BB ratio, and a tendency to give up at least a hit an inning. This leads to a terrible WHIP and a less than tolerable ERA. Jackson has put together a few brilliant starts on the season, but they are few and far between. Over Jackson’s past seven starts he is 2-3 with an ERA of 6.82. Not what you are looking for, even from a spot starter. I stay away.

• Darrell Rasner, SP – NYY (DOWN) After cruising through his first four starts, Rasner has posted a 1-5 record and an ERA of 6.47 over his past six starts. This has been terrible, but I still like his potential to be a worthy fantasy starter. He is still showing solid command with a 2.71 K/BB ratio, and has been able to keep the ball in the ballpark with a 7.7 percent HR/FB rate. He will continue to give up at least a hit an inning with a line drive rate of over 21 percent. In the end, I would still project around a 4.25 ERA and 10-12 wins.

• Javier Vazquez, SP – CHW (DOWN) Unhittable at times, but then there are times when Vazquez can’t buy an out. Right now is one of those times. Over his past five starts Vazquez is 2-2, and has an ERA of 7.48. In these five starts, Vazquez has walked 15 batters over a total of 27.2 innings. This is out of character for a guy who typically walks just over two per nine innings. He is still showing good velocity and striking out the usual amount of batters. This is likely just one of those bad stretches a pitcher will have, wait it out and don’t push the panic button. He will be just fine.

INJURY REPORT

Another big name went down this week as Tigers’ outfielder Magglio Ordonez was placd on the disabled list with a pulled right oblique muscle. He should be on schedule to return after the All-Star break. In the meantime Matt Joyce will be getting some extra playing time.

The Yankees place Hideki Matsui on the disabled list Friday. He had been battling a sore left knee that had kept him out of the lineup since June 22nd. He should be back around the All-Star break, likely just after. Wilson Betemit should benefit by getting some time at first base.

Paul Konerko is scheduled to begin a brief rehab assignment with AAA Charlotte this week. He is eligible to be activated today, but will return by the weekend assuming all goes as planned during rehab.

This is getting beyond ridiculous and you would have to assume Hank Blalock if completely frustrated. As he was scheduled to come back from the DL for a third time, he suffered another setback with his wrist on a swing during a rehab start. Blalock will at least another two weeks, maybe longer.

Felix Hernandez missed his turn in the rotation on Sunday with a sprained ankle that he had suffered earlier in the week. He is tentatively scheduled for his next start, but keep a close eye on his situation.

The Twins placed outfielder Michael Cuddyer on the disabled list for the second time this season.  He has a strained tendon in his left index finger. He will be out until at least the All-Star break.

Brandon Inge was placed on the disabled list last Monday after pulling an oblique muscle. He was of little fantasy value other than his multiple position eligibility, but this move will have Ivan Rodriguez back into full-time catching duties.

David DeJesus is listed day-today after coming out of a game Sunday with some bruised ribs. Joey Gathright will get time in center field while DeJesus sits.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Chris Davis, 1B – TEX I am not usually one who is big on adding young rookies to a roster, but when a guy has been as hot as Chris Dais has been over the first half of the season, coming from AA to the majors, he is worth a look. Especially when he has the power that Davis has. Davis hit 23 home runs in 297 at-bats this season in the minors. He also has hit two home runs over his first four days in the majors. Be realistic when adding him. He will strikeout a lot limiting his average, but you never know. He could be lightning in a bottle.

• Nick Swisher, OF – CHW I continue to be amazed that Nick Swisher is not owned in more leagues. I said it a few weeks back, and will say it again to readers. Nick Swisher must be owned in all leagues. Here is his stat line over the past month, .307 average, five home runs and 18 RBI. That is not tremendous, but when a guy also gets on base via a walk as much as Swisher, he will add runs. He has 21 to date in June, which is fourth in the league. As he continues to heat up the home runs will come. You won’t be disappointed.

• Dana Eveland, SP – OAK It looks as if Eveland has gotten over the command issues he had a few weeks ago when he walked 13 batter over two starts. Since then, Eveland has just walked seven over 20.1 innings and has allowed just for runs. On the season Eveland is now 6-5 with a 3.34 ERA. Eveland is not a big strikeout pitcher, nor does he have the greatest command, but what has led to a significant amount of his success is his 47.6 percent ground ball rate to go along with a low 3.3 percent HR/FB rate. Eveland’s next start will come against the Angels who have struggled to score runs of late.

• Nate Robertson, SP – DET If you like to spot start one of your pitching spots, then I would take a look at Nate Robertson. It is true that he gives up hits, but he is a pitcher who has some solid command of the strike zone with a 2.36 K/BB ratio. He has also been getting ground balls again, which makes him an effective pitcher. In June, Robertson has a 3-1 record with a 3.77 ERA. As the Tigers continue to warm up, this will only increase the chances that he will have opportunities to continue winning games. His is a two-start pitcher this week in Minnesota and Seattle.

FUTURES MARKET

Well, Francisco Liriano is still down at AAA after it looked like a call-up was impending a few weeks back. Since then he has had two sub-par starts. The latest showing five runs on nine hits allowed in 5.1 innings pitched. Though Liriano still is continuing to show improved command. He still has walked more than one batter just once in his past nine starts.

The Royals have recalled 1B/DH, Billy Butler, to replace Alberto Callaspo on the roster. Butler should begin to see some regular time once again as he tore up the Pacific Coast League while in AAA. He hit .337 with five home runs in 101 at-bats.

The Indians sent Asdrubal Cabrera down to AAA Buffalo a few weeks ago to allow him to regain the confidence that he showed last season. Cabrera was only hitting .184 with the Indians upon the demotion this season. Since then, Cabrera is hitting .375 with a home run and five RBI in 72 at-bats. Though, with Jamey Carroll doing a fine job in Cleveland, Cabrera may be down for awhile.

One of the many Tampa Bay pitching prospects went down for the season this week. AA left-hander, Jacob McGee was experiencing shoulder soreness and it was later revealed he had torn a ligament and needs to have Tommy John Surgery. This will set him back at least a year and a half. On the season McGee was 6-4 with a 3.94 ERA.

Boston first base prospect Lars Anderson is having a terrific month of June, with the exception of hitting home runs. In June Anderson is hitting .352 with six doubles and 14 RBI, but has just one home run, which is supposed to be a developing skill. It is likely one of those anomalies in baseball, but is an interesting note. Anderson had seven home runs coming into June. For the season he is hitting .304 with eight home runs and 37 RBI.

The roller coaster ride of Gio Gonzalez’ first season in AAA continues. After posting a fine 3.91 ERA in April, Gonzalez came back with a very poor May with an ERA of 6.46. June was looking much better as Gonzalez had three quality starts in a row, including an eight-inning performance where he struck out 12, but his latest start brought him back down. He allowed six runs on seven hits, walking four in just 2.2 innings.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

• Buy - Miguel Cabrera, 3B – DET We keep waiting for the big breakout, but yet it never comes. Its not as if Cabrera is having a horrific season, but by his standards, 2008 has been a disappointment. To date, Cabrera has just an .809 OPS after having an OPS near or above .950 each of the last three seasons. Is it the switch to the American League or is it just one of those seasons? It’s hard to say, but what is showing this season is a decreased line drive rate to 17.7 percent, which has lead to a decreased BABIP to .317. Add in a decrease in HR/FB rate to 11.2 percent and we now see why both the average and power numbers are down. Though, there is still hope as those numbers have a lot of variability in them. Also, Cabrera’s eye at the plate and GB/FB rates are very similar to previous levels. He is still too good of a hitter and power producer to slump away for a whole season. Expect a bounce back in the second half of the season and Cabrera to be a top 25 player again.

• Sell – Jon Lester, SP – BOS No disrespect to Lester and his tremendous story, but in fantasy terms, I don’t see Lester getting much more value this season than right now. He had a tremendous run of eleven starts in a row before Saturday night where he didn’t allow more than three runs in any start. For a young pitcher that is tremendous, but if I have learned anything, young is hardly consistent. He may prove this wrong, but with the less than ideal 1.67 K/BB ratio, I would assume some hiccups are on the way. Case in point Saturday nights start in Houston where Lester allowed six runs in five innings. His fielding independent ERA of 3.79 does not align with his 3.13 ERA and shows some hints of luck in BABIP and stand rate. I still see Lester as a solid middle to back end of the rotation starter on a fantasy team, with the possibility for 13-15 wins. Though, right now, try to up sell him.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 20 ELIGIBLE AL STARTING PITCHERS

1. Josh Beckett, BOS
2. Roy Halladay, TOR
3. C.C. Sabathia, CLE
4. John Lackey, LAA
5. Rich Harden, OAK
6. Cliff Lee, CLE
7. Scott Kazmir, TB
8. Felix Hernandez, SEA
9. Ervin Santana, LAA
10. Justin Duchscherer, OAK
11. Erik Bedard, SEA
12. Shaun Marcum, TOR - DL
13. James Shields, TB
14. Javier Vazquez, CHW
15. Justin Verlander, DET
16. Joe Saunders, LAA
17. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
18. Joba Chamberlin, NYY
19. Jered Weaver, LAA
20. Zack Greinke, KC

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.