Running Down the Battle for Second Place in the AL East

On Thursday night, the Yankees and Red Sox renew their rivalry. We break down the series.

On Thursday night, the Yankees and Red Sox will meet for the second of the approximately 742 times they are scheduled to do so this season. Earlier that day, Karen and I will be traveling down to the Jersey shore to celebrate the Fourth of July and her uncle’s birthday. Luckily for me, her uncle and his family are rabid Red Sox fans. They have a David Ortiz fathead prominently displayed in their house. So, in preparation for my four day weekend of verbal abuse, I figured I’d jot down my thoughts on the upcoming series and break it down position by position, Dr. Z style.

Team Record:
Boston: 50-37 New York: 45-40

Considering that the Yankees have played pretty mediocre baseball up to this point, things could be worse. Slumping hitters are showing signs of life, and people keep saying they are a second half team (by people I mean the giant Miller Lite Vendor in Section 12 of the Tier Reserved Section—he’s a credible source). Then again, considering that the Yankees have a payroll of almost $210 million, things could be better. Moving on (thank God).

The Verdict: Red Sox

Catcher:
Jorge Posada v. Jason Varitek

Any other year, this would be a wash out. Posada is a better hitter, who, prior to his shoulder injury, was serviceable behind the plate and handled his pitchers well. Varitek probably is the better defensive catcher. This year, Posada’s labrum tear worries me. Without his cannon of an arm to make up for his shortcomings in footwork and quickness, Posada has already been exposed by teams that are willing to run. More importantly, that pain and structural damage will psychologically weigh on Posada when he hits.

What made the difference for Posada last season and allowed him to hit .338 was his ability to lay off of two strike pitches breaking out of the strike zone. A lot of times, in order to do so, you have to check your swing at the last possible moment. That last second jerk can sometimes send a wave of whiplash all the way from your hands to your shoulders. Couple that feeling with a labral tear, and believe me, Posada feels it every time he stops his swing a little short.

Then again, Varitek is hitting .216. He does hit .250 against lefties, and has a tendency to kill the Yankees. Good thing New York only has one lefty pitcher.

The Verdict: Ummm push?

First Base:
Jason Giambi v. Kevin Youkilis

When I started thinking about this section, I thought about all the research I could do in comparing how often each guy gets on base, how deep each gets into every count, the defensive impact of the wet noodle that is Jason Giambi’s right arm, and the slight gleam of insanity residing in Youkilis’s eyes. But honestly, that sounded a little boring. How about we compare facial hair instead?

In the modern day Major Leagues, only a few players could hope to measure up to the absolute repellence of Giambi’s ‘stache. Youkilis and his goatee give Giambi a run for his money. Let’s start with the challenger.

Although I am sure that pictures exist of Kevin Youkilis without his recent beard (I’m having a hard time coming up with a name for it, because upside down mountain of facial hair becomes tedious to type), I am convinced that should he shave said growth, he would be without the bottom portion of his face. Simply, Youk’s goatee ate his chin and jaw line. That is the only logical explanation for its size, shape, and fullness. At some point in a recent off-season, Youkilis took an interstellar spaceflight, where he came in contact with some kind of symbiotic life form. Since then, the Boston first baseman has housed, nourished, and cared for it, in return for championship rings.

Despite all that, Youk’s beard does not have magical powers. The relationship between Youkilis and the hair is one of scientific symbiosis from which each member has benefited. Giambi’s mustache somehow bestows supernatural abilities to its wearer. When his lip started showing wisps of hair, Giambi was hitting .191. As of right now, his upper lip is fully protected from the elements and he is hitting .268 with 18 HR and 52 RBI, on his way to a surprisingly productive year.

Perhaps the best moment of the season came a few days ago, when YES announcer Michael Kay started to comment upon the small animal that seemed to have died over Giambi’s mouth area. Kay said something along the lines of “Jason looks like he’s going to an open casting of…” and I immediately thought, Debbie Does Dallas? Ron Jeremy’s Greatest Hits? The Spice Network? I could have typed exclamation points for the next few pages, and not come close to accurately depicting my excitement. Unfortunately, Kay ended his thought with “Magnum P.I.” The Giambino looks like a cross between a cheesy mob movie put out in the mid-30s, and anyone who was on the set of “Boogie Nights.” Without a doubt, the Giambino could have been the name of a Brock Landers villain.

While Youkilis’s upside down mountain of facial hair ate his face, Giambi’s mustache put him in a movie with Dirk Diggler and Jack Horner.

The Verdict: Jason Giambi’s magical porn ‘stache.

Second Base:
Robinson Cano v. Dustin Pedroia

As of this very moment, there’s no comparison. Accepting the idea that Pedroia and Cano are relatively defensively equal, we’re going to focus on offense here. Despite the fact that Cano has raised his average over the last eleven days from .228 to .248, more troubling is his .282 on base percentage. Cano doesn’t walk, so if he does not hit, he does not reach base. If Cano does not reach base, he cannot score runs, which should be the ultimate goal of a player like him. Conversely, Pedroia has a better batting average (.304), more homeruns (8), more RBI (37), vastly more runs scored (53), and an OBP of .348. Furthermore, no one swings harder than him on a consistent basis, and that’s fun to watch. Now, excuse me, I am going to light myself on fire.

The Verdict: Dustin Pedroia (for now)

Short Stop:
Derek Jeter v. Julio Lugo

Look, I know the argument: “Jeter is overrated. The press loves him, so they gloss over his limited range and his incrementally decreasing ability in the field, and focus on his successes. Also, he didn’t need to dive into the stands after making that catch.” Besides the fact that he has the better average (.279 to .270), more homeruns (four to one), more RBI (35-18), and more runs scored (48-24) than Lugo, answer the following question: If your life depended on winning a baseball game, your team trailed by one in the last inning, you had runners on second and third, and were down to your last out. Who would you rather have hitting? Derek Jeter or Julio Lugo? Yep. Me too.

The Verdict: Derek Jeter

Third Base:
Alex Rodriguez v. Mike Lowell

Because I hold A-Rod personally responsible for the despicable trend of giving players nicknames simply by combining the initial of their first name with the first syllable of their last, I will refer to Mike Lowell as M-Low from now on, just to show how annoying it is. (For a column that wasted almost 500 words on a comparison of a goatee and a mustache it’s also a lot quicker to type.)

M-Low has experienced another strong season. Despite missing time with injury, he is still hitting .298 with 12 HR and 47 RBI. More importantly, for whatever reason, on a team that has extreme personalities like Manny, Youkilis, and Crisp, M-Low seems to emotionally ground the Red Sox. They look to him for quiet leadership, quality at-bats, and timely hitting. M-Low is one of the better third basemen in the American League, and I would not mind it if he found his way on to my fantasy team. That’s a high compliment for any member of the Red Sox.

That being said, M-Low is not the premiere player of his generation. A-Rod is. Just like M-Low, A-Rod missed time with a strained quad, and still has fantastic numbers: .321 BA, 17 HR, 47 RBI. He also has taken to only hitting mammoth homeruns into Monument Park. I have no joke or analogy for that, it’s just sick.

Comparing A-Rod and M-Low would be like comparing a show like the Simpsons with the Flintstones. While you know you will never go wrong with the Flintstones (I particularly recommend the one where Fred goes back to college), the Simpsons are so above and beyond any other cartoon, that such a comparison just seems unfair.

The Verdict: Alex Rodriguez

Left Field:
Johnny Damon v. Manny Ramirez

This match-up assumes that manager Joe Girardi will choose to play his best every day lineup in this series and use speedy youngster Brett Gardner primarily as a pinch runner. I know I’m asking a lot there, but let’s just go with it. There’s just so much to talk about here, I’m not sure where to begin. (Note: I wrote the following comparison before I remembered that Manny is now DHing while Ortiz recovers from his wrist sheath injury, which I repeat is totally unrelated to steroid use…Since I have never seen Brandon Moss play, I decided to run with the original anyway. Try not to hold it against me.)

Let’s look at it this way, take two television shows that always reside at the top of my DVR list, “The Sopranos” and “How I Met Your Mother.” Over the past year, I discovered HIMYM. It truly is a fantastic show. The humor almost always creeps right to the border of sitcom absurdity without tipping over. The main characters all are likable people, played by pretty strong actors, with multiple dimensions, who hang out in a bar. With HIMYM, you have what “Friends” could have been if the writers had not shifted their focus from the financial and spiritual trials and tribulations of living in the city in your mid-twenties to the insipid near-incestual romances of its main characters. Ultimately, I know that when I turn on HIMYM, I’ll chuckle, laugh, and possibly giggle, enjoying the overall experience; the mark of a good show.

Nevertheless, “The Sopranos” existed on an entirely different level than any other television. There is a scene, when Tony sits in Dr. Melfi’s office and compares therapy to a bowel movement. When the doctor retorts, “Many people equate therapy to childbirth,” Tony grimaces that incredible Gandolfini grimace and says, “Trust me, it’s like taking a s—t.” That was how you felt during the entire course of a given episode! An episode could be tense, painful, surprising, shocking, hilarious, and gut-wrenching all in the same sitting. From week to week, you never knew if you were going to see Tony riding a horse in his living room during a dream sequence, Adriana get whacked, Christopher go on a heroin and booze fueled binge, or Bobby playing with his train set. Every hour was its own experience. After the hour ended, you felt emotionally and physically drained. In fact, “The Sopranos” remains the sole reason why great shows like “The Wire,” “Rome,” and “Deadwood” never took off. You simply could not tune in to another television show immediately after watching “The Sopranos.” You were never emotionally ready to deal with anything else until the following day.

So to recap, “How I Met Your Mother”: quality TV; “The Sopranos”: unparalleled TV. Johnny Damon: quality lead off man and outfielder; Manny Ramirez: unparalleled hitter and RBI guy, who just loves playing in the Bronx.

The Verdict: Manny (If you want to be highly entertained, go back through the third paragraph of this section and substitute the word “Manny” for the “The Sopranos.” Isn’t that the range of emotions you experience every time you watch him play?)

Center Field:
Melky Cabrera v. Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury takes this category without too much of a fight from the “Melkman.” Cabrera currently is hitting .240, with an OBP of .305. While he has performed solidly in the field, often providing good range and a strong arm in center field, Ellsbury is just as good, if not better defensively. He gets to every ball Melky would, has more speed, and a decent enough arm. Furthermore, Ellsbury outperforms Melky in every offensive category, hitting .267, with 55 runs scored, 35 stolen bases, and a .344 OBP. Good thing I let the guy go from my fantasy team early in the season. I mean, who needs a guy that steals two to three bases every week? Pardon me while I lie down in the middle of the street awhile.

The Verdict: Ellsbury

Right Field:
Bobby Abreu v. J.D. Drew

Surprisingly, the two of these guys are pretty equivalent. Abreu currently has more RBI and more stolen bases. Drew hits for a higher average with a few more homers and runs scored. He also has an improbable .989 OPS. Both have carried their respective teams at one point or another during this season. If I were to compare their body of work throughout their careers, it would be impossible to discount Drew’s tendency to choke in situations with even the slightest bit of added pressure. However, all signs point to the fact that he completely shed that complaint with his $15 million grand slam. Plus, he enters the series red hot.

The Verdict: Drew, just barely

Starting Pitching

Every starter except Daisuke and Sidney Ponson will pitch in this series. That means we will see Darrell Rasner, Mike Mussina, Joba Chamberlain, and Andy Pettitte, square off against Josh Beckett, Justin Masterson, Tim Wakefield, and Jon Lester, respectively. Of those eight, I only have an idea about Pettitte, Mussina, Rasner, Beckett, and Wakefield. Pettitte will give the Yankees five or six decent-to-strong innings, where he will battle whether he has his best stuff or not. Depending upon whether the opposition adequately slowed their bats down, Mussina and Wakefield will either pitch strong, shut down games, or will not make it through the third inning. Rasner will throw batting practice and allow Pedroia and J.D Drew to pad their stats. Beckett will blow through the Yankees, because that’s what he does.

I honestly have no idea what to expect from Lester, Masterson, or Chamberlain. All three have shown the ability to dominate a game. All three have also shown that they are still young and their nerves sometimes get to them. Perhaps the most interesting subplot of this section will be how Joba Chamberlain reacts to his first start against the Red Sox in Yankee Stadium. Honestly, nothing that could happen during that game will surprise me. He could throw a perfect game with twenty-seven pitches a la Brendan Fraser in “The Scout;” he could give up a bomb to Manny, plunk M-Low, and be carried off the field swearing up a storm a la Rick Vaughn. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if Joba sprinted to the mound dressed only in his jock and pinstriped war paint, took a bite out of the rosin bag, and barreled through the center field fence shouting “Victory!” Could you imagine Joe Buck trying to announce that? Would McCarver somehow relate it to an experience he had in his playing days with Bob Gibson? Would there just be two subsequent hours of dead air? I’m giddy just thinking about the possibilities.

Verdict: Josh Beckett swings the pendulum towards the Red Sox

The Bullpen

Normally, I would argue that the simple inclusion of Kyle Farnsworth to the Yankee bullpen immediately causes Boston to win this category. However, Okajima has struggled as much as, if not more, than Farnsworth this year. With runners on, Okajima has a 6.32 ERA and his opponents hit .288. Even more horrifically, with runners in scoring position and two outs, Okajima possesses a 20.25 ERA and his opponents hit .417. Manny Delcarmen also struggles in those same situations; he only has a 15.19 ERA with RISP and two outs. Clearly, both teams struggle with bridging the gap between the middle innings and the ninth. As such, this category comes down to the closer.

As good as Papelbon has been, Rivera has been better. I could throw numbers at you (Papelbon has a 2.00 ERA, Rivera 0.96; Papelbon has a 7.71 ERA with RISP and two outs, Rivera 3.38), but you simply have to have watched Rivera this season in order to appreciate him. In three words or less, he is SICK. At 39 years of age, Rivera consistently peppers the catcher’s glove on either side of the plate with his cutter. When the lefties back off the plate to catch the cutter coming into them (like Luis Gonzalez did in the 2001 World Series), Rivera paints the outside black. He expertly controls both halves of the plate, and has simply been lights out in save situations this year.

Papelbon is good. Scratch that. Papelbon is great. He just needs to do this for ten more years before we can compare him to Mariano Rivera.

The Verdict: Yankees

Rundown

It seems like the Red Sox have a little more going for them heading into Thursday. Over the course of the first half of the season, their hitters have been a little hotter, their pitchers more consistent, and injuries have not slowed them too much. However, both teams limp into this series. The Yankees just barely salvaged a game against the Rangers, while the Sox just got swept by the Rays. Maybe this rundown actually analyzes who will finish second in the A.L. East.

There will be more to this weekend than my 3,000 words could hope to cover. The atmosphere will be crazy. The games will be incredibly tense. McCarver’s hair will be disturbingly red. If you get a chance, between barbeques and fireworks, sit down and enjoy. This will be a good one.

Now I have to go prepare for my four day weekend of verbal abuse. See you on the other side.