Roto Chronicles: American League - August 11

Carlos Quentin just keeps slugging his way up the charts…

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Mike Aviles, SS—KC (UP) All the man continues to do is hit. Since his call-up from AAA in late May, Aviles has hit .335 with seven home runs, 31 RBI, 37 runs scored, and four stolen bases in 58 games. With this production over a full season of play, Aviles would be on pace to be the best offensive shortstop in the American League. That surely is premature to even think, as he has just over two months of major league experience in his pocket and a rather high .381 BABIP. Though, if you picked him up during this incredible stretch of play, enjoy the ride. He won’t hit .341 the rest of the way, but a near .300 batting average is feasible.

• Torii Hunter, OF—LAA (UP) Consistency is a valuable trait in a player, it makes it easier to predict what type of season that a player will enjoy. Just as James Shields was in the pitcher category a few weeks back, Hunter is consistent for the hitters. After hitting .287 with 28 homers and 107 RBI last season, Hunter is again hitting .285 and is on pace for 27 home runs and 91 RBI. Though, with the way that the Angels offense has clicked as of late, the RBI total may creep up towards that 100 RBI mark once again. Especially now that Hunter is in a hot streak. Since the All-Star break, Hunter has hit .362 with seven home runs and 22 RBI in 18 games.

• Carlos Quentin, OF—CHW (UP) Just as Mike Aviles keeps hitting, Carlos Quentin keeps amazing. The White Sox slugger has yet to suffer through any sort of extended slump and now has hit a total of 32 home runs and 90 RBI with a .286 batting average. His monthly OPS’s are 1.052, .899, .849, .953, 1.114 and in no month has Quentin not hit at least five home runs. He has been a model of consistency all season long, and even hits just as well away from U.S. Cellular Field as he does in his favorable home park. I certainly don’t see Quentin going away any time soon.

• Adrian Beltre, 3B—SEA (DOWN) For whatever reason Adrian Beltre continues to disappoint with his batting average. Since May 1, Beltre has hit a poor .238, including a recent .195 average in August. The culprit is a low .263 BABIP, his lowest since 2005 when it was .256 (he hit .240 that season). With a solid 21 percent line drive rate and a career .295 BABIP you should expect his batting average to improve, yet he has done this before. He has however continued to hit for decent power, 19 home runs at his usual 13 percent HR/FB rate, and has posted his best eye ratio (0.59 BB/K) since his monster 2004 season in Los Angeles. In the end it may just be another .250 season for Beltre, but that power does continue to make up for some of it.

• Marcus Thames, OF—DET (DOWN) After a historic month of June, Thames has come crashing back down in a hurry. Since July 1, Thames has hit .176 with 33 strikeouts in 85 at-bats. Though his power has remained, hitting six home runs during this slump. Thames is the classic slugger, big power and big strikeouts that will limit his batting average upside. Right now Thames has a 30 percent strikeout rate for the season to go with a poor .245 BABIP. His career BABIP is only .263, so there really doesn’t look to be a huge upside in average. If Thames should start to hit, grab him as cheap power until he fizzles back out, but that will have to wait as he has a sore shoulder that has him listed as day-to-day.

• Michael Young, SS—TEX (DOWN) The ever-steady Michael Young is in a tough slump. He usually is great at putting the ball in play, but since the All-Star break, Young has struck out 23 times in just 87 at-bats, or 26.4 percent of at-bats. He usually ranges around 13-16 percent. With this, it is no wonder that he is hitting .218 during his slump. He is also trying to play through a fractured index finger injury, which has to be effecting his play. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up on the disabled list at some point after aggravating it on Saturday.

Pitchers

• A.J. Burnett, SP—TOR (UP) One month ago in the July 7th column, I mentioned that A.J. Burnett was a buy candidate when he had an 8-8 record and 4.92 ERA. Well, since that date Burnett is 6-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 44.1 innings. He has also kept his walks to a reasonable amount, just 3.05 per nine innings over this streak. He may not give the most dominant performance night in and night out, but a pitcher who gets 50 percent ground balls while striking out over a batter an inning is a valuable piece to any team. Expect more of the same the rest of the way.

• Paul Byrd, SP—CLE (UP) Paul Byrd has been on fire. Over his past 5 starts spanning 35 innings of work, Byrd is 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA. His strikeouts remain non-existent, that is not a part of his game, but Byrd has cut back on hits allowed- especially the home run. He remains the league leader in home runs allowed with 23, even though he has now gone five starts without giving one up. With that said, don’t buy into this hot streak. Sooner or later that 85-mile an hour fastball will get squared up by an opponent, so I’d steer clear from Byrd. He has struck out less people, walked more batters, and allowed significantly more home runs per fly ball this season. Going forward expect nothing more than a 4.50 ERA at best.

• J.J. Putz, CL—SEA (UP) Putz is back as the Seattle closer just three weeks in from his latest return from the disabled list. Since his return July 20, Putz has thrown 11.2 innings with an ERA of 2.31, 13 strikeouts and six walks. He also has allowed 13 base hits to give a total of 19 base runners in 11.2 innings. This is enough to certainly curb enthusiasm to think that he is completely back into the dominant pitcher of the past two seasons. Irregardless, Putz will get his share of saves the rest of the way. The seven strikeouts over his past three appearances is a good start.

• Fausto Carmona, SP—CLE (DOWN) The lack of command that Carmona exhibited before his hip injury in May continues to haunt him. In three starts since returning to the Indians rotation, Carmona has allowed nine walks in 12.2 innings, and has allowed 47 in 70.1 innings on the season. The worst part about that is that he only has 31 strikeouts to his name this season against those 47 walks. It is tough to remain competitive when that ratio is so poor, even if you are an extreme ground ball pitcher. For the season, Carmona is 5-4 with a 4.46 ERA, nowhere near his Cy Young-caliber performance of a season ago.

• Sean Gallagher, SP—Oak (DOWN) After coming into the Athletics rotation with a great opportunity to throw some innings and showcase his stuff, Gallagher had a couple of solid starts against New York and Los Angeles before feeling a “pop” in his shoulder in a start against Texas on July 25. He continued to pitch through the soreness that ensued. Then struggled through his last three outings giving up 12 walks, 18 hits, and 13 runs in 13.1 innings before getting shut down. He missed his turn in the rotation Saturday, and is tentatively scheduled to make his next start this Thursday against the Rays. I’d wait for some positive results before adding again.

• Huston Street, CL—OAK (DOWN) Street has hit a rough patch, and may end up losing the job as closer in Oakland. Since July 12, Street has blown three save chances, and has been tagged with two losses. And really you can go back further into June when Street began his struggles. Since June 1, Street has a 5.34 ERA and only six saves to four blown saves. The main issue with Street this season is a dramatic difference in his K/BB ratio. The past two seasons Street had a ratio of over five, but to date this season, his ratio is 2.61. That is not bad, but as compared to his recent history it is. Also, a continued increase in home runs allowed will always hurt any pitcher, especially a closer. Street is currently giving up over one home run per nine innings. Definitely downgrade the expectations of Street, but don’t completely discount him just yet. It may just be a rough stretch.

INJURY REPORT

Baltimore’s Adam Jones is out at least four weeks with a fracture in his right foot. He will receive another exam in two weeks to monitor progress before going ahead with any recovery plans for this season. It is possible that his season may be over.

The Red Sox will be without one of their top starters for a few weeks as Tim Wakefield was placed on the 15-day disabled list with stiffness in his right shoulder. This might clear the way for Bartolo Colon to return to the rotation in the near future. Colon pitched three scoreless innings in a start on Sunday afternoon as he works on stretching his arm out.

The Joba Chamberlin scare may not be as bad as first thought. The idea of problems in the rotator cuff send out warning signs, but Chamberlin says that he feels much better already as he has been cleared to begin throwing by the end of the week. His goal is to return by the end of August.

Evan Longoria sat out the weekend after being hit on the wrist with a pitch during Thursday nights game. The wrist was very sore making it hard for Longoria to swing without pain. He is scheduled to be back in the Rays lineup Tuesday night.

The Rays also put outfielder Carl Crawford on the disabled list after feeling a “pop” in his right middle finger during an at-bat Saturday night. Depending on the results of an examination, Crawford could be out two weeks, or the remainder of the season. Stash him on the disabled list until the results are determined.

Toronto is beginning to welcome back a pair of outfielders. Vernon Wells was activated for Sunday’s game against the Indians after his recovery from a strained hamstring. He went 0-4 stranding four runners. Also, Shannon Stewart continues his rehab from a high ankle sprain. He is now with AAA Syracuse and is 6-26 with seven walks and four RBI over three levels of competition.

The Blue Jays also announced that third baseman Scott Rolen has been placed on the disabled list to rest his injured shoulder. He is said to be out two to three weeks. Joe Inglett will pick up the extra playing time.

The return of Joe Crede continues to be rumored even though he continues to miss rehab starts. Crede received an injection to alleviate the pain, but has yet to play a game since August 1. Though, he is said to be ready for a return this week. Stay tuned.

Jose Contreras’ return to the White Sox rotation lasted just 1.2 innings. He ruptured his Achilles tendon and will miss the rest of this season, and likely a large portion of next season. This injury is said to take between 9-12 months to properly heal. Not sure where the White Sox will go for a fifth starter, but in the meantime Jack Egbert or Lance Broadway may get a call.

It may be too late for the Indians, but the middle of their lineup will get better by the end of 2008. Victor Martinez could begin a rehab assignment by the weekend with the hopes of slowly working into the lineup and then eventually some catching duties. He will start as a DH upon activation. Also, Travis Hafner’s shoulder was tested at 75 percent last week and he is now beginning to hit soft toss. He is hoping for a return before the end of the season.

Carlos Guillen exited Friday night’s game with back spasms and is listed as day-to-day. This is worth keeping an eye on, but he will be back in the lineup likely tonight.

The Twins received good news from the hand specialist that met with Alexi Casilla. It was determined that Casilla could resume activities after another week in a splint. From there he will begin workouts and if all goes well return to the lineup at a yet to be determined date. Though, Casilla admits that hitting left-handed is too painful. This may limit his ability to play everyday upon returning.

Michael Cuddyer was soon to be activated from the disabled list, but an injury of another sorts has likely ended his season. During a rehab assignment on Friday night, Cuddyer was hit in the ankle by a line drive, breaking his ankle. What bad luck that was. The injury will take four to six weeks to heal placing him right at the end of the season.

You can officially rule out Eric Chavez from any playing time this season. Not that this should have come as a surprise with his string of injuries, but he did go through with the shoulder surgery and is out for the remainder of 2008. I wouldn’t even put much stock into him again next season as he is saying that he wants to move across the diamond to first base. His fantasy value surely would be even lower there.

Still with no timetable for a return start, Erik Bedard has made progress in his rehab as manager Jim Riggleman says that he has noticed a big change in Bedard’s pitches over the past couple of weeks. He’ll continue a throwing program and possibly throw from the mound starting this week.

The Rangers are having a very tough time with injuries of late, this time with David Murphy and closer C.J. Wilson. Murphy who was slumping away his shot at Rookie of the Year, sprained his knee and will miss two to four weeks. Also, a slumping C.J. Wilson was sidelined with bone chips in his shoulder. It has yet to be determined if he will try and pitch through the pain or go ahead and go under the knife and end his season.

On a positive note for the Rangers, Kevin Milwood’s groin has healed up and he will be activated this week, but I wouldn’t recommend playing him.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Jed Lowrie, SS—BOS I wouldn’t go make Lowrie your starting shortstop on your team this season, but as a backup or in a middle infielder role, Lowrie could give your squad a little boost. He does not project to be a home run hitter or have a history of stealing bases, but he does have a history of being a good hitter with some gap power. A 22.5 percent line drive rate and a 9 percent walk rate bode well for his ability to get on base. He is currently hitting .279 with one home run and 22 RBI in 111 at-bats. And although Julio Lugo should return by the end of the season, I wouldn’t rule out Lowrie continuing to play as Jacoby Ellsbury did late last season.

• Marlon Byrd, OF—TEX Very quietly, Marlon Byrd is having a good season. In roughly a half of a season worth of plate appearances, Byrd is hitting .286 with eight home runs, 45 runs scored, 31 RBI, and four stolen bases. Good numbers, but since the All-Star break he has been great. Byrd is hitting .377 with four home runs with 16 RBI and an OPS of 1.036. Byrd has an 11 percent HR/FB rate, which shows that he does have some power, and he has more than doubled his K/BB ratio to 0.79 this season. The only disconcerting characteristic of Byrd is that he hits so many ground balls that limit his power potential. Though, with a full-time job in the place of the injured David Murphy, you could do a lot worse than Marlon Byrd in your outfield rotation.

• Phil Hughes, SP—NYY Just as was suggested with Francisco Liriano weeks back, it is now time to add and stash the talented Hughes for his upcoming activation from the disabled list. He currently is in AAA Scranton extending his arm out to throw more pitches before the Yankees recall him into the rotation. Thus far in three minor league starts split between A and AAA, Hughes has thrown 11.1 innings allowing just one run on six hits while striking out eight. He is slated to start Thursday against Pawtucket where he will be limited to 85 pitches. There is a chance that Hughes could be back near the end of August.

• Rafael Perez, RP—CLE Well, in the mess that is the Indians bullpen, one name is coming out on top, Rafael Perez. Over his past 21 appearances dating back to June 20, Perez has a 2.00 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 30 strikeouts, and five walks in 27 innings. He also has converted two save opportunities during this stretch. While he is likely not to become the full-time closer as the Indians need somebody to get outs before the ninth inning too, his opportunities should rise and potentially give a half of dozen saves by the end of the season while giving excellent ratios to help your pitching stats.

FUTURES MARKET

It may not be much longer until David Price makes his impact on major league hitters. The big left-hander continues to dominate minor league hitters to the tune of an 11-0 record in 15 starts, with a 1.87 ERA, .206 batting average against, more than 50 percent ground balls, and a four to one K/BB ratio. He was just promoted to AAA and might get a call come September for a playoff push with Tampa.

The recently acquired catcher by the Indians from the Dodgers is having a terrific season. Carlos Santana just recently crossed the 100 RBI plateau to go along with 16 home runs and a .331 batting average. It doesn’t look like the move from the California to the Carolina League is going to slow him down. Santana is hitting .388 since the move.

Tampa Bay’s shortstop of the future, Reid Brignac, is having a tough season in Durham. A high 26 percent strikeout rate is limiting his potential. Brignac is hitting just .250 with nine home runs on the season, and is hitting just .188 since the AAA All-Star break with 24 strikeouts in 69 at-bats. It looks like Jason Bartlett’s job is safe at least through the end of 2008.

The Royals 2007 first-round pick, Mike Moustakas has warmed up as the summer has gotten hotter. Hitting just .228 through 66 games in the low-A Midwest League, Moustakas has tore it up since, hitting .335 with a slugging percentage over .600, including 11 home runs in his last 39 games. For the season, Moustakas is hitting .268 with 20 home runs and 62 RBI. The future looks bright for this young slugger.

Pitchers who strikeout more than a batter per inning are certainly a commodity in fantasy, and one we should look for in the coming years is Baltimore right-hander Chris Tillman. He is currently in AA with Bowie as a 20-year-old. He likely will again start there next season to get more seasoning as he is so young, but by 2010 we may begin seeing his talent in the big leagues. As with most power-arms, command will be key. During his July slump, Tillman walked 16 batters in 21.2 innings. During his hot start through April through June, Tillman walked 38 in 79 innings. For the season, he is 7-4 with a 3.67 ERA and 124 strikeouts in 112.2 innings.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL SHORTSTOPS

1. Michael Young, TEX
2. Jhonny Peralta, CLE
3. Carlos Guillen, DET
4. Derek Jeter, NYY
5. Mike Aviles, KC
6. Orlando Cabrera, CHW
7. Bobby Crosby, OAK
8. Edgar Renteria, DET
9. Jed Lowrie, BOS
10. Brendan Harris, MIN

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.