Down the stretch they come!

Handicapping the race that matters most to the author, the AL Central.

First, some housekeeping. I apologize for my lack of posts this month. Life has been rather insane, and a honeymoon to the Bahamas last week does the mind lots of good, but definitely hurts the blogging.

Anyway, back to business. I’ll ease back into my column here with the one bit of baseball I did keep track of while in Nassau: my ChiSox against the Twinkies for the AL Central crown. Trying to put my fandom aside, this has one of the better odds of being the last race left as baseball wraps up the regular season, provided the North Side counterparts don’t repeat 1969. I’ve already read a few articles predicting what will happen, and you can too, if you haven’t read the linked articles already.

What do I see? Let’s take a look (all stats through 8/20):

• Let’s start with Pythagorean records and difference to actual records. The Twins are +3 compared to expected record (72 W vs 69 ExpW). The Sox are -1 (74 vs. 73). Edge: SOX
• Much has been made about the Twins hitting in scoring postion, which currently stands at at .318. Much has already been said about this being ridiculously high, which means that the Twins should come back to earth. The Sox are also hitting a robust .286, so a regression toward the mean should not impact them as great. Now, I know batting average is not a great stat for analysis, but it does tell us something. Edge: SOX
• Pitching has kept the Sox around the year. Pitching has been a Twins hallmark over the years, unless your name is Livan. Contreras just went to the DL, and Lirano just came off. Do I really need to cite numbers in this case? Edge: TWINS
• And just so I can have another excuse to use Tango’s* stats, Sox team wOBA is .346, Twins are .332. Both numbers courtesy of the new and promising site Stat Corner. EDGE: SOX
  • *BTW, speaking of Tangotiger, his Fan’s Scouting Report just opened up for voting. If you consider yourself a good baseball fan, you must vote. The more votes, the better. And Pozterisks inside bulleted lists aren’t as much fun.
• Managers: Ozzie vs. Gardy. Poz sings Gardy’s praises as the best manager in baseball, while many think the Wizard of Oz is possibly insane. Tactically, though, I have to side with Poz, because the Twins seem to do things that are the product of smart coaching. I believe I heard an anecdote from one the ESPN talking heads about the simulation of situational hitting during Twins’ BP. The managers may not do much about what happens on the field, but they sure can help prepare their teams for it. Sometimes Ozzie’s rants work against that, entertaining as they may be. EDGE: TWINS

So yeah, while momentum and history seem to favor the Twins, there has never been a showdown between these 2 in recent years that extended this late into the season. The typical arc was a close battle in the first half, usually with a small lead by the White Sox, only to watch the Twins destroy them in the head-to-head match-ups and the division race. Considering the average age of the two clubs, this could be the last time we see the Sox and Twins to the AL Central tango.

It’ll take a tremendous run to make Griffey a World Series champ, but the Sox should at least get that chance to make that run.