Roto Chronicles: American League - August 25

A pair of Indians sluggers set to rejoin the team, Alexei Ramirez continues to amaze, and much more in this weeks AL Roto Chronicles…

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Jason Bay, OF—BOS (UP) Life is good for the new Red Sox left fielder. He not only was traded to a perennial contender, he also hit a hot streak as he moved into the Red Sox lineup. Since the acquisition, Bay has endeared himself to Red Sox nation by hitting .333 with four home runs and 18 RBI in 87 at-bats. After a mysterious drop in production a season ago in Pittsburgh, Bay has rebounded to prior levels of success and looks to be a perfect fit in Boston for years to come. He has cut strikeouts down to a career low 22 percent of at-bats, hit a very good 15 percent of fly balls over the fence, and has hit for a sustainable .327 BABIP. Bay may not equal Manny Ramirez over his career, but at this point in time, he is an excellent replacement.

• Derek Jeter, SS—NYY (UP) Very quietly the real Derek Jeter is close to returning. After hitting as low as .270 through June 14, Jeter has hit .315 with four home runs, 32 RBI, and five stolen bases since. He is getting back to where we are accustomed to seeing Jeter, but with less power. The power does still seem to be evading Jeter as his ISO power reaches a career low .109. Going forward fantasy owners need to readjust their expectations of Jeter. The .300 hitter will remain as he continues to cut back on strikeouts, but he may be a guy who just gets 10-12 home runs and 10-12 stolen bases over the next few years. In the American League this still qualifies you as a top three shortstop. For the season Jeter is hitting .293 with eight home runs, 60 RBI, 71 runs, and nine stolen bases.

• Alexei Ramirez, 2B/SS/OF—CHW (UP) The White Sox hit the jackpot twice this off-season, once on Carlos Quentin, and again on Alexei Ramirez. Since given the opportunity to play everyday May 16, Ramirez has hit .329 with 15 home runs, 55 RBI, and eight stolen bases. It seems as though as he settles into the league, his power numbers jump. Here is his slugging percentage by month: .207, .443, .527, .538, .563. This obviously can’t continue to increase, but if he starts to level off in the .500 range, Ramirez may soon become one of the top fantasy second baseman in the league if he is not already there. He also just obtained shortstop eligibility in certain leagues, which only adds to his value.

• Carlos Gonzalez, OF—OAK (DOWN) The Athletics lack of outfield depth forced the hands of management as Carlos Gonzalez may have been brought in a bit soon. At 22 years of age, and with just 51 games of AAA experience, Gonzalez was promoted to Oakland to play regularly. Gonzalez, who was showing decreased power this season in AAA, has continued his decline in power with just four home runs in 277 at-bats with Oakland. His strikeout rate has jumped to over 26 percent of at-bats, up from 19 percent at AAA. It isn’t getting any better either. Gonzalez is hitting .188 in August with 29 strikeouts to two walks in 85 at-bats. For the time being stay completely away if not in a keeper league until there are any signs of life.

• Jose Guillen, OF—KC (DOWN) Aside from that insane hot streak back in May and into June, Guillen has had some big problems. Since July 1, Guillen has hit just .181 with four home runs and 19 RBI. That’s nearly two months of sub-.200 hitting. It makes you wonder how much his playing for a non-contending team has to do with motivation, because he has been to either extreme this season and rather quickly at that. It seems you never know what you’re going to get the past few seasons with Guillen, the talent is there, but will it shine through? If you own him, sit him in hopes that a late season charge comes, but I wouldn’t blame you if you dropped him either, especially in an OBP league.

• Gerald Laird, C—TEX (DOWN) Laird remains the best option at catcher for the Rangers, but since returning from a hamstring injury July 27, Laird has hit just .233 with a pair of homers and 11 RBI. Some of that can be attributed to a slightly low .273 BABIP over this time period, but Laird has done that and worse before over a season, so it should not be discounted. He has been a hit-or-miss hitter as far as batting average before. It is just hard to get a read on this guy. He looks to have the talent to be a fantasy worthy catcher, but never consistently puts it together. Unless he starts on a tear, he should only be owned in two-catcher leagues. He did have three hits this weekend and may be turning the corner into a solid September.

Pitchers

• Roy Halladay, SP—TOR (UP) While Cliff Lee continues to run away and hide as the front-runner for the American League Cy Young award, Roy Halladay himself is having a season worthy of the award. He leads the AL with 198 innings pitched and in complete games with eight. He also is in the top four in wins (15), strikeouts (168), ERA (2.68), and WHIP (1.04). This may just end up becoming his best season of his great 11-year career. He has an excellent 168 to 34 strikeout to walk ratio, is holding batters to a .236 average, is allowing just 0.68 HR/9, and is inducing the usual 54 percent ground ball rate. If anyone should pass up Lee for the Cy Young, Halladay is that guy.

• Jonathan Papelbon, CL—BOS (UP) Papelbon will never top his 0.92 ERA of 2006, but this season certainly is getting close to topping that as far as effectiveness. He has taken his command to another level, walking just 1.11 batters per nine innings, is allowing jut 0.48 HR/9, and has been able to induce a career high 48 percent ground balls, more than 10 percent higher than his previous high. For the season Papelbon has a 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 33 saves. He also has yet to allow an earned run or walk since the All-Star break. Regardless of K-Rod’s saves total, Papelbon along with Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan are the top closers in the American League.

• Brad Ziegler, CL—OAK (UP) I have been slow to jump aboard the Ziggy train, but it is surely time to give credit where credit is due. Brad Ziegler is having a phenomenal run this season. In 68.1 innings between AAA and Oakland, Ziegler has allowed three runs. That’s it. Two of those even came over the past three appearances. His ERA stands at 0.41. After setting the rookie scoreless innings streak, Ziegler took over the Oakland closer role from the struggling Huston Street and has converted his first four opportunities. While it is too late for me to act upon Ziegler this season, his insane 68 percent ground ball rate with no home runs allowed surely are intriguing numbers for future success.

• Brian Bannister, SP—KC (DOWN) It’s hard to remember back to April when Brian Bannister had a string of great starts that jumped ownership and had people thinking he was outsmarting the competition with his statistical intellect. He was 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts. Since, Bannister is 4-13 with a 6.71 ERA. He has by far been one of the worst starting pitchers in the American League. Yet, ESPN has him showing 7.5 percent ownership. That just goes to show how many people don’t pay attention past April in their leagues. Though Brian banister is not this bad, he has shown improving strikeout rates to 5.64 K/9 this season, and has a slightly unlucky 64 percent strand rate. He is likely somewhere in between 2007 and 2008 at around a 4.75 ERA, still not good enough to be owned.

• Gio Gonzalez, SP—Oak (DOWN) The minor league strikeout king of 2007 has made it to the big leagues, but has shown poor command of the strike zone (6.52 BB/9) in his short four-game stint. His command was down in AAA this year as well, walking 4.5 batters per nine innings after a 3.4 mark in 2007 at AA Birmingham. It is too early to tell which way Gonzalez will go, but first impressions are hard to erase. He has yet to accumulate a quality start as pitch counts are forcing him out of games through just five innings. If used in a right situation he could give a decent start as he did Friday against the Mariners, striking out seven, walking three in five innings while allowing four runs. That’s about what should be expected at least this season. Spot start, especially if in need of strikeouts.

• Shaun Marcum, SP—TOR (DOWN) No surprise here as Marcum was demoted to AAA Syracuse for lefty John Parrish. Marcum has been terrible since his coming back from the sore elbow that sidelined him for nearly a month of the season. He does have a 3-2 record, but a very poor 6.19 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, and 2.5 HR/9 since his return. He obviously is not hitting his spots and is having some command issues, which is the reason for the scheduled brief demotion. The Blue Jays hope that he can fix the mechanical errors that have led to the problems in hopes that he can be back in September. For fantasy owners, keeper league owners should just sit him until then, other leagues drop him as we head down the stretch with the idea of possibly grabbing him back from waivers should he fix himself.

INJURY REPORT

Orioles closer George Sherrill was placed on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation. Jim Johnson is the temporary closer until Sherrill returns, which should be by September 1.

Josh Beckett threw a 10-minute side session Friday and reports that he is still experiencing the numbness and tingling in his fingers along with some elbow inflammation. The Red Sox have moved back Beckett’s next start to Friday night against the White Sox leaving the returning Wakefield to take the Tuesday night start against New York.

After sitting out most of the week, the Red Sox tried to get outfielder J.D. Drew into the lineup on Friday, but his back pain got worse and an MRI revealed a herniated disk. The Red Sox have yet to announce any disabled list trip for Drew, but it certainly could happen and be retroactive to August 17.

An update should come today on Evan Longoria’s right wrist when it is X-rayed and evaluated again. The Rays are holding out hope that their rookie slugger can be back on the field in early September.

Troy Percival is stating that he will be ready to go come August 30 when he is eligible to be activated from the disabled list. Surgery was not needed on his knee, thus Percival says that he will pitch through whatever pain there may be as the Rays finish down the stretch.

Manager Ozzie Guillen stated that Joe Crede is physically ready to be activated form the disabled list, but that the Sox want to see some success before activating him. Crede is 2-16 in five AAA games.

The Royals announced that struggling third base prospect Alex Gordon will miss the remainder of the season with a torn quadriceps muscle in his right leg. He finishes the season hitting .254 with 14 homers and 51 RBI.

Not that you should have, but don’t plan on spot starting Luke Hochevar for the rest of 2008 as he was placed on the 60-day disabled list with a deep contusion of his rib cage. Hochevar failed to live up to expectations with a 6-12 record and 5.51 ERA during his rookie campaign.

The Angel’s Garret Anderson left Sunday’s game with a sore knee and is listed as day-to-day. For now sit him until he is back in the lineup.

The Oakland A’s were hit hard last week with injuries. Pitchers Justin Duchscherer and Sean Gallagher both landed on the disabled list with hip and shoulder injuries respectively, while second baseman Mark Ellis sat out the weekend with shoulder pain. No timetable has been set on Duchscherer’s hip strain. He would be eligible to return in early September. Gallagher’s shoulder fatigue may sideline him for the remainder of the season. No word on if Ellis will need to be place on the disabled list.

Originally scheduled for a bullpen session, Erik Bedard threw from flat ground after feeling some discomfort earlier in the week in his shoulder. The session was a success, as Bedard felt no problems. However it is getting very close to Bedard calling it a season and readying himself for 2009.

As the Mariners likely will have to wait on one of their pitching acquisitions, another, Carlos Silva is set to return by the first of September. Silva went on the disabled list with shoulder tendonitis just two weeks ago after struggling with an 11.39 ERA over his past five starts. His return should not mean anything however to mixed league owners, as there remain much better options on the market.

The Rangers have a couple of hitters working hard to make it back in early September. Ian Kinsler, who suffered a sports hernia on the 18th, is lifting weights and running on the treadmill to try and hasten his return. Examination of his hernia showed no torn groin muscles, thus the doctor wants to see progress before letting him back on the field. He could be back as soon as September 5. As for David Murphy, he is now taking batting practice in hopes of returning from his sprained knee by September 1.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Victor Martinez/Travis Hafner, C/1B/DH—CLE The time is near. Both Martinez and Hafner are slated to be activated from the disabled list as soon as Wednesday of this week and both remain available in a handful of fantasy leagues. As exciting as this does sound, be careful of your expectations as both will likely have the odd day or two off per week as the season nears its end for an Indians team out of contention. It will be interesting to see how Cleveland handles a rotation of at-bats with Martinez not playing catcher everyday while playing some at first and as the DH. The Indians also have a hot Garko at first base and Hafner looking to play as much as he can at DH. With all of this said, it is still worth the add to see what either of them can do the rest of the way. I mean, looking over the potential free agent lists, is there anyone who may have as much impact as these two? Martinez is hitting .278 with a home run on his rehab. Hafner is hitting .308 with three RBI.

• Joey Gathright, OF—KC Perfect timing for a return for Gathright. It is a shame for the Royals that Alex Gordon will miss the remainder of the season, but that injury has opened up an everyday spot for the speedy Gathright to play everyday in center field as David DeJesus moves to left field while Jose Guillen moves to right field for Mark Teahen who has moved to third base to cover Gordon’s absence. Playing everyday, Gathright should be able to provide a solid stolen base total, he has 21 in 85 games this season, which would project out to be roughly 40 over a full season. That is really the only reason to add him. He is a career .261 hitter with one home run.

• Clayton Richard, SP—CHW Not in the listing of top-30 White Sox prospects in Baseball America’s annual Prospect Handbook, Clayton Richard has shot through two levels of competition to reach the major leagues. The soon to be 25-year-old does not project as an ace, but he could become a solid fantasy pitcher in due time. He is a change of speed guy who throws in the low 90’s with his fastball and who mixes in a sinker to get ground balls, which is important for a pitcher who will be pitching in “The Cell.” He is very average in terms of strikeouts, 6.15 K/9 between three levels this season, but has good command with just 1.52 BB/9 this season. With the White Sox his ERA reads 6.75, but underlying that is an expected ERA of 3.67. It may be a bit of a risky add, but Richard could give Nick Blackburn-type success as soon as right now.

• Jim Johnson, RP—BAL Another week, another save-chasing opportunity hits the boards this week. With George Sherrill going on the disabled list, the Orioles have promoted rookie reliever Jim Johnson into the closer role. Johnson does not have overpowering stuff by any stretch, but does induce a very high number of ground balls (59 percent) with a combination of a fastball, curve, and changeup. The best stat that he has is the fact that he has yet to allow a home run this season in 66.2 innings of work. That certainly will help in holding leads. With Sherrill likely to return before the season is out, this is a short-term add to get saves. Going into next season I’m curious to see if Johnson may be moved back into a starter role as he has been until this season’s opportunity in the bullpen.

FUTURES MARKET

University of Georgia product and White Sox first-round pick in this year’s draft, Gordon Beckham is signed and playing quite well during his first taste of professional baseball. Beckham made his debut on August 15 with Class-A Kannapolis going three for four with a double and two runs scored. He has continued this success over his first seven professional games by hitting .306 with a homer and four RBI. It may only be 36 at-bats, but this is a solid start for the 22-year-old shortstop.

Just a short week ago it looked as if Phillip Hughes was to be making his return into the Yankees rotation, but two very sub-par performances have some hinting towards a “tired arm” as Hughes stays with AAA Scranton. Hughes has allowed 13 runs on 18 hits over his last two starts covering seven innings even though he has a 10-to-1 K/BB ratio. Not sure where the “tired arm” reference is coming from as Hughes has just 45.2 innings on the season, but the hits allowed total makes you wonder as to what may have happened.

Matt LaPorta has had a rough go of it since the blockbuster Sabathia trade in early July. He lost his luggage on the way to Akron, his Grandpa passed, hit .212 in 14 games with Akron, struggled with just three hits in 19 at-bats at the Olympics with nine strikeouts (although two of his hits were for home runs), and was been beaned by a Chinese pitcher in the head forcing LaPorta to the hospital. He was fine as he played in the bronze medal game going 2-4 with a home run against Japan.

Ranked as the number-six prospect in the Yankees farm system coming into 2008, Jesus Montero has done nothing to hurt that. Montero, who has been on a two-month tear hitting .355 with 10 home runs, has his batting average up to .322 on the season to go along with a very solid 17 home runs and 83 RBI at Low-A Charleston. It will certainly be at least three years before we can even think that Montero will be a potential call-up, as he is just 18-years-old, but fantasy owners should take notice.

Not only has Gordon Beckham made his debut, Justin Smoak of the Rangers has as well. Smoak, often compared to Mark Teixeira of the Angels as a power, switch-hitting first baseman, is starting his career with the Low-A Clinton Lumberjacks. In six games Smoak has five hits including a home run in 23 at-bats. Soon to turn 22-years-old, should Smoak find some quick success, he should be on the fast track to Texas by the end of next season.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 20 ELIGIBLE AL OUTFIELDERS

1. Carlos Quentin
2. Josh Hamilton
3. Grady Sizemore
4. Jason Bay
5. Jermaine Dye
6. Nick Markakis
7. Bobby Abreu
8. Ichiro Suzuki
9. Vladimir Guerrero
10. Milton Bradley
11. Raul Ibanez
12. Xavier Nady
13. Alex Rios
14. Johnny Damon
15. Magglio Ordonez
16. Curtis Granderson
17. Torii Hunter
18. B.J. Upton
19. J.D. Drew
20. Jacoby Ellsbury

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.