Roto Chronicles: American League - September 8

Brandon Morrow nearly no-hits the Yankees while a man named Choo continues to light up the American League…

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Bobby Abreu, OF—NYY (UP) Much to my surprise when researching over stats for this week, I found that Bobby Abreu has hit .349 since the All-Star break with six homers and six steals. I had known that he was hitting well, but .349 made me double take. He has always been a guy who hits for that mixture of average and power with some speed, but what could be leading to this hot streak? Well, during this run, Abreu has cut his strikeouts down to 14.3 percent of at-bats while walking 12.7 percent. He also has a .385 BABIP in the second half, which is obviously unsustainable, but should that be at his usual .350 level, Abreu would still be hitting around .320. At 34, Abreu’s power looks to have faded a bit, but he can still give one of the best all-around stat lines in the league.

• Billy Butler, 1B/DH—KC (UP) If I were to tell you that a player has hit .320 with eight home runs and 34 RBI since the All-Start break would you believe that they were still available in 67 percent of leagues? The overall slump and lack of power displayed by the Royals 1B/DH during the first half of the year really turned off owners as he hit .249 with two home runs before the break. You could tell that the talent was there, but the league had adjusted to him. Well, he has adjusted back and is now displaying the batting average potential that we have heard about. Butler is also mixing in the long ball at a rate better than at any previous point in his short big league career. Butler will again be a player to buy later in the draft next season.

• Dustin Pedroia, 2B—BOS (UP) What can you say other the man knows how to hit and that he keeps getting better. After hitting a robust .317 as a rookie, Pedroia has backed that up with a .330 batting average during his sophomore campaign. What is even better, Pedroia has more than doubled his home run total to 17, and also his stolen base total to 17. He is a true all-around threat. He is also the current American League leader in both batting average and runs scored (111). One of the driving factors in his ability to hit for a high average is that he strikes out just eight percent of the time along with a sustainable .338 BABIP. Buy with confidence in next season’s draft that he can, and will, be a steady force for years to come.

• Brandon Inge, C/3B/OF—DET (DOWN) Many were excited when Brandon Inge was given the opportunity to be an everyday catcher again in Detroit after Ivan Rodriguez was traded. He was just two years removed from hitting 27 home runs and remained a decent home run threat. However, he is just a .238 career hitter, and the last time he was behind the plate Inge could barely crack the .200 mark. History looks to be repeating itself. Since the trade, Inge has hit .191 with three home runs and 14 RBI. Inge does have a very unfortunate .248 BABIP, which says that his batting average should be higher, but even then a 26 percent strikeout rate will limit any upside.

• Gary Sheffield, OF/DH—DET (DOWN) This one is pretty obvious, but it is worth noting that Sheffield with all of the injuries this season may be experiencing his worst season. Sheffield is hitting just .223 with 14 home runs in 364 at-bats. Known for limiting his strikeouts as a slugger, Sheffield is striking out 20 percent of at-bats for just the second time in his career. As a reference, Sheffield was at 10 percent just two years ago. Also of note is a declining home run rate. Sheffield has hit just 11 percent of fly balls over the fence after hitting 13.7 last season. Finally, Sheffield has a very low 13.2 percent line drive rate, which is a key explanation for his .243 BABIP. Should Sheffield stick around next season I wouldn’t expect another season as bad as this, but with the fragile nature of his body I wouldn’t be expecting much either.

• Mark Teahen, 3B/OF—KC (DOWN) This was to be a very important season for Mark Teahen in Kansas City. After hitting .290 with 18 home runs during his sophomore season in 2006, Teahen maintained a .285 average, but only hit seven home runs in 2007. That season was to be the fluke and Teahen was to bounce back with the home runs and keep hitting for an average this season. That hasn’t happened. Teahen has slumped to a poor .245 with 12 home runs. His stolen base total has also dipped from 13 to 3. Now after four seasons in the league, Teahen has yet to really develop and I would not be certain that he’d be a safe bet to again be an everyday player in Kansas City. He is purely an average to below average player.

Pitchers

• Francisco Liriano, SP—MIN (UP) Counting the minor leagues, Liriano has now won 15 decisions in a row. That is simply remarkable when you think about it. A few no decisions are sprinkled in there, but 15 decisions without a loss. Amazing. Even more frightening, Liriano looks to have figured out the slight command issue that he had during his first few starts after the recall. Liriano has walked just two hitters over his past 20 innings while striking out 18. Overall since rejoining the Twins, Liriano is 5-0 with a 1.44 ERA.

• Francisco Rodriguez, CL—LAA (UP) Even though Rodriguez has been impressive all season long with saving games, his underlying statistics have never been better at any point of the season than they are right now. During August and into September, Rodriguez’ strikeouts have skyrocketed while his walk totals have dropped. This is an excellent sign that he is completely over that early season ankle injury that led to the drops in velocity and strikeouts. Over these past five weeks, Rodriguez has 21 strikeouts to two walks in 13 innings of work. He also has 11 saves and an ERA of 2.07. Only three more saves are needed for the record.

• Javier Vazquez, SP—CHW (UP) Vazquez has to be one of the most consistent starting pitchers year in and year out. Sure his ERA has ranged as high as 4.91and as low as 3.42, but you get 32 starts a year with excellent strikeout totals, a good WHIP, a shot at 12-15 wins, and an ERA around 4.25. Since the All-Star break, Vazquez is only 4-5, but has a good 3.80 ERA, a .238 average against, and 58 strikeouts to 15 walks. This puts his numbers at an 11-12 record with a 4.34 ERA, certainly less than ideal, but the 175 strikeouts to 49 walks are his meal ticket. Should he ever find a way to strand more runners, as you would believe that he would with the high strikeouts, Vazquez could really have a special year. I buy again next season.

• Jon Garland, SP—LAA (DOWN) It is very hard to trust a Garland start each time that he takes the mound. He has a career low strikeout rate of just 4.03 per nine innings, an increasing walk rate to 2.71 per nine innings, a high 22.6 line drive rate allowed, and 22 home runs allowed. His fielding independent ERA of 4.86 is the highest it has been since 2004 with the White Sox when his ERA was a career high 4.89. Since the All-Star break, Garland is 4-2, but his 5.59 ERA and 69 hits allowed in 56.1 innings are very unappealing to the 22 percent who still own him. Utilize as a spot starter in favorable matchups, nothing more.

• Andy Pettitte, SP—NYY (DOWN) It’s hard to put a finger on exactly what has happened to Andy Pettitte since June, but over the past two months he is 4-7 with a 5.16 ERA. This is after going 9-5 with a 3.98 ERA through June. The best that I can come up with is that he is having problems with an unlucky strand rate since then, as his rate is a rather low 68.8 percent on the season. All of the other indicators of hits, strikeouts, walks, and home runs seem to match up within reason. So I wouldn’t buy into this slump very much, Pettitte has increased his strikeout rate this season while decreasing walks. He should continue to be a very solid fantasy starter into next season.

• Greg Smith, SP—OAK (DOWN) Smith did have a somewhat promising start, throwing seven scoreless innings on Saturday night, but the five walks to two strikeouts did not look very good. Smith has been having this problem for quite some time now, walking 28 to 25 strikeouts since the All-Star break. Not only is he walking more, but he is giving up more hits, as batters are hitting .286 as opposed to .228 before the break. This has led to a 1-7 record and 6.02 ERA since the break. I would stay away. However he does have one point in his favor. He is a fly ball pitcher in a pitchers park, which is why his BABIP has remained at a low .259.

INJURY REPORT

Baltimore is again switching closers due to an injury, lucky for them one is coming back as the other goes on the disabled list. Jim Johnson who took over for George Sherrill a few weeks back had an MRI on his shoulder Friday. It showed enough “abnormalities” that the O’s decided to shut him down for the remainder of the season. Also, Sherrill will be finishing his last side session today and should be ready to rejoin the Orioles bullpen this week.

Melvin Mora continues to sit with his strained left hamstring, now missing over a week of action. It is still unclear if and when Mora will be ready to go. All that can be said is that he is day-to-day, and that you should reserve until he is ready to go.

The Red Sox welcomed back a small crew including Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Sean Casey last week. One name not on the list, J.D. Drew is still recovering from the herniated disc, but is now taking batting practice and shagging fly balls. There is no timetable as of yet, but he is getting closer.

Tampa Bay activated Evan Longoria over the weekend, but he will only begin hitting batting practice today and may pinch hit until he is completely ready.

Big news in Chi-town, Joe Crede is out for the season with his ailing back that flared up again. Oh wait. There was an even bigger injury. Carlos Quentin, the possible AL MVP, broke his wrist punching his bat after an at-bat against Cliff Lee. It don’t get much worse than that for the White Sox. You lose not only your starting third baseman, but your driving force in the resurgence into contention. Quentin will miss at least three weeks and if the White Sox make the playoffs, he may have a shot at playing again.

Anthony Reyes left start a start on Friday night after the third inning. He was again pitching well, but felt some soreness in his throwing elbow. The Indians will hold him out one start and go with Scott Lewis for his major league debut Wednesday.

There continues to be no Travis Hafner sighting in Cleveland, but that should change this week. He finished up a stint with AA Akron during their playoffs on Saturday and likely will be activated this week. Though, with him still not 100 percent healthy, don’t bet on much production this month. It has been stated that if he returns he will not be playing regularly.

The Tigers remain without their third baseman Carlos Guillen due to a pinched nerve in his back. Out since August 25, Guillen may be back Tuesday, but he may not come back at all. The Tigers really don’t know. Guillen did not travel over the weekend with the team to Minnesota.

The Angels are expected to welcome back middle infielder Erick Aybar from a strained hamstring early this week. He took batting practice over the weekend and is scheduled to begin a running program today. He hopes to be getting back onto the field during the Yankee series.

Justin Duchscherer is done for the season, according to manager Bob Geren. Duchscherer experienced a setback with his hip injury during a bullpen session Thursday. He finishes the season 10-8 with a 2.54 ERA.

The A’s will be welcoming back Sean Gallagher from his “shoulder fatigue” this Wednesday against Detroit. He threw five scoreless innings during a AAA rehab start for Sacramento on Thursday night. Before Gallagher went onto the DL he was experiencing some serious command issues, walking 28 over his last 39.1 innings. This was likely partly due to the fatigue, but it is worth noting.

The season is officially over for the Mariner’s rookie catcher, Jeff Clement. He will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. Clement finishes a rather disappointing .227 with five home runs.

Jarrod Washburn missed a start over the weekend with an abdominal strain, which led to Brandon Morrow’s masterpiece on Friday night. He is not expected to miss more than that one start, but manager Jim Riggleman isn’t ruling out more.

Milton “day-to-day” Bradley is again at it. He was scratched from the lineup on Saturday for wrist soreness. How annoying is this? He is listed day-to-day, as he should always be.

Vicente Padilla is returning to the rotation in Texas. He threw a final side session on Friday with no setbacks in either his neck or hamstring. He will start Tuesday in Seattle. I would not recommend this start even if it is against Seattle.

The Rangers and Ian Kinsler finally decided to hang it up this season. The sports hernia has been too much to overcome in such a timeframe, and the surgery that he will have was a necessity before next season anyway. Might as well get it out of the way now and focus on 2009.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Juan Uribe, 2B/3B/SS—CHW With the news of Joe Crede finishing up the season on the disabled list, Juan Uribe finds himself back into the everyday lineup. If not for a rather poor April when Uribe was at second base, he has had a rather fine season. Since May 1, Uribe has hit .275 with five home runs and 24 RBI in 175 at-bats. The .275 batting average is what should stand out, as Uribe is a career .253 hitter. He is also hitting .278 since the All-Star break and is a career .291 hitter in September with 32 of his career 111 home runs, nearly twice as many as any other month has. With Uribe hitting over 20 percent line drives and keeping his batting average and fly ball rates up, a surge in home runs may be looming on the current home stand.

• Shin-Soo Choo, OF—CLE In the short-term I like this add. Sometimes you just have to go with the hot hand during the stretch run of September. Choo still strikes out too much for my taste, 26.4 percent of at-bats, but currently is on a tear with a 22 percent line drive rate and .363 BABIP. His home run per fly ball rate is also a very solid 13.5 percent. Hitting .343 since the All-Star break with an OPS of over 1.000, Choo has slid under the radar until late. He has been stuck in a platoon with Franklin Gutierrez, and likely will still get some days off against left-handers, but should this continue, he is earning more time and a shot at a full-time starting job in 2009. The line that I like is his .404 OBP and .959 OPS against right-handed pitchers for the season. He is must play at this point when a right-hander is on the mound.

• Brandon Morrow, SP/RP—SEA Quite an impression was made during Morrow’s first major league start. The starter turned reliever turned back into starter nearly no-hit the Yankees on Friday night before Wilson Betemit broke it up in the eighth inning with an RBI double. On the night Morrow went 7.2 innings with one run on one hit, eight strikeouts and three walks. We surely can’t expect that on a routine basis, but even if Morrow’s strikeout rate drops while in the rotation, as it will, it should remain at a substantial enough level to offset even average control. That will be the key. Can he maintain his command during this transition? If yes, the Mariners have a potential #1 or #2 starter in development.

• Shaun Marcum, SP—TOR Grab him should he remain available following his great performance on Saturday. Marcum went seven innings, shutting out the Rays while giving up just four hits and three walks. He also struck out seven. It was his first start with the Jays since August 22 when he was sent to AAA Syracuse after struggling with his command upon returning from the disabled list. If this start is any indication, Marcum should be a fine boost to any rotation down the stretch, just be aware that he does give up a fair amount of home runs that can hurt him quickly. I would expect about a 3.75 ERA and a couple of wins the rest of the way.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL RELIEF PITCHERS

1. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
3. Mariano Rivera, NYY
4. Joe Nathan, MIN
5. Joakim Soria, KC
6. Bobby Jenks, CHW
7. B.J. Ryan, TOR
8. Fernando Rodney, DET
9. J.J. Putz, SEA
10. Brad Zeigler, OAK

…

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.