Roto Chronicles: American League - September 22

Nelson Cruz makes a case for fantasy stardom in next year’s draft while Josh Beckett returns to form…..

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B—DET (UP) The second-half of the season has been much better for the Tigers slugger as he settled into his new league. After hitting a respectable .837 OPS in the first half, Cabrera has exploded to a 1.005 OPS after the break while leading the AL in home runs with 20 and RBI with 68. He also now leads the AL in overall home runs with 36. The main area where Cabrera has dipped this season is in batting average, which has been influenced by a slight drop in BB/K, and a major drop in BABIP of 52 points. Though, since the All-Star break, Cabrera has hit his usual .310. Going forward there should be no worries that Cabrera will not be one of the top fantasy players on the market again.

• Nelson Cruz, OF—TEX (UP) Has he officially arrived? Only time will tell, but the much-hyped potential of Cruz is shining through for the first time in a major league uniform. Cruz is hitting .315 with five home runs, 21 RBI, and three stolen bases in 25 games since his recall. This is on top of the ridiculous .342 average, 37 home runs, 99 RBI, and 24 stolen bases in AAA this season. Positive signs of this potentially being the real deal is a 23 percent line drive rate, a 0.84 BB/K ratio, 20 percent home run per fly ball rate, and the fact that he has cut back on strikeouts to a more respectable 21 percent of at-bats. The sample size is still lacking enough to really be certain with any of the data, but it sure is fun to think of the possibilities if this is truly real.

• Denard Span, OF—MIN (UP) The former first-round pick in 2002 is starting to live up to expectations. Span was in a tight battle in spring training for the everyday center field job that he ultimately lost to Carlos Gomez, but injuries to Michael Cuddyer have paved the path to the emergence of Span as a right fielder instead. After tearing up the International League with a .340 batting average in 40 games, the Twins recalled him and he has not looked back, settling into the leadoff role in a divisional race. For the season, Span is hitting .298 with a .383 OBP, six home runs and 17 stolen bases in 86 games. It will be interesting to see what the Twins do next season when Cuddyer is healthy to go along with Gomez, Delmon Young, and Jason Kubel. Surely they will not want to take Span out of the lineup as he has been their best option as a leadoff hitter.

• Ben Francisco, OF—CLE (DOWN) It’s been a tough month for the Indians’ rookie outfielder. The timing for his worst slump of the season couldn’t have been worse. He has hit just .174 in September while Shin-Soo Choo and others have heated up for the Indians, leaving Francisco on the bench more and more. He has played in just 13 games in September after playing full-time as the number-three hitter in the lineup for nearly three months. I don’t read too much into this slump, as Francisco is a good hitter and this sort of slump won’t last, but you can’t help but wonder if Choo’s emergence matched with the upcoming talent of Matt LaPorta and Trevor Crowe that Francisco may be just holding down the fort anyway. Not a bad problem for Cleveland to have.

• Kevin Millar, 1B—BAL (DOWN) The power numbers remain at the usual 20 home runs, 70 RBI range for the veteran first baseman, but the batting average continues to diminish. Millar has now slipped to a career low .236 mark. He has even been replaced recently at first by a 30-year-old rookie, Oscar Salazar, to see what they have in him as Millar is an upcoming free agent. Millar still has something to give, as the reason his average dipped as low as it did, is an uncharacteristic drop in BABIP to .251. I wouldn’t expect a drastic turn back in the other direction, but if he finds the right situation next year, Millar could still give some value, but if he ends up a role player from the bench, he obviously will lose all value that he even has left.

• Nick Swisher, 1B/OF—CHW (DOWN) It just never seemed to come together for Swisher this year. There were some spurts of production, but were always followed up by another prolonged slump. It has gotten so bad, just .194 since the All-Star break, that he has been benched for the hot-hitting DeWayne Wise recently. Everything that was expected of Swisher coming to U.S. Cellular Field happened, he hit more home runs, worked an above average amount of walks, and produced a solid runs total, but what was unforeseen was the dramatic drop in BABIP. Swisher’s BABIP in 2008 is just .250, a 58-point drop from last season. If he even had a sniff of that average, Swisher’s numbers would really have taken off. I target him again next season later in drafts.

Pitchers

• Josh Beckett, SP—BOS (UP) So much for the questions about Beckett’s right arm. In three starts since returning from a strained elbow, Beckett is 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA, 21 strikeouts and only three walks. You wouldn’t think it by looking at his overall numbers (12-9, 3.96 ERA), but Beckett has had a nearly identical season as last when looking deeper into the stats. His strikeout and walk ratios have remained consistently great, his HR/9 has remained under 1.0 at 0.94, his BABIP is a little higher at .320, and his fielding independent ERA of 3.24 is just a bit higher than the 3.16 of last season. Once again as we enter the clutch time of the season, Beckett is rounding himself into form.

• Zack Greinke, SP—KC (UP) Quietly at the bottom of the American League Central, the Royals have had some solid pitching performances this season, from Joakim Soria, to Gil Meche after April, to the ace of the rotation, Zack Greinke. This was an important season in Greinke’s career as he returned to the rotation for a full-season after being out of it for a year and a half for various reasons. He has responded well with a 12-10 record and 3.59 ERA and 179 strikeouts, which ranks him fifth in the league. More impressively over his past 10 starts, Greinke is 5-3 with a 2.60 ERA, 65 strikeouts, and 13 walks. With his above average strikeout ability as a starter, and his recent groundball tendency, Greinke should be in line for a successful run for the foreseeable future.

• Jensen Lewis, CL—CLE (UP) The Indians may have found their closer before the off-season even begins. A problem spot for the franchise during their recent run of success, Jensen Lewis has given them the best run of production seen in a long while. Since taking over as the closer in August, Lewis has converted 11 straight saves and has an ERA over this stretch of 3.00. He also has an excellent 19-to-4 strikeout to walk ratio over these 18 innings. He still remains susceptible to the long ball at times, but with the Indians looking to contend next season and barring any free agent additions, Lewis is in line to be a solid closer option in the mid-to-late rounds of next year’s fantasy drafts.

• Edwin Jackson, SP—TB (DOWN) Nobody may be fooling people more this season than Jackson. On the face of his stats, 12-10 and a 4.19 ERA, he doesn’t look that bad. Deeper we find out that he is benefiting from a generous strand rate of 77 percent. On a positive note, he has cut back on walks, but his strikeout rate has dropped just as dramatically to give him a nearly identical 1.41 K/BB ratio, canceling out any walk improvement. He has been rocked for a 7.20 ERA and 31 hits in 20 innings over his past four starts, so as I have suggested previously, stay away. Stay away.

• Troy Percival, CL—TB (DOWN) It’s tough to down a guy who is having back problems, but as he toughs through the pain, Percival has been roughed up for nine runs in 4.2 innings. He has given up seven hits and walked eight while only striking out two. He has admitted that his off-speed pitches are still off and that he has to rely on his now 93 mph fastball to get by. At 39-years-old, and facing back surgery in the off-season, one has to wonder if he can do it again next season.

• Glen Perkins, SP—MIN (DOWN) The law of averages is in effect. Statistically overachieving for much of the season, Blackburn’s ERA (4.15) has jumped to nearly match his fielding independent ERA of 4.29. This is as Blackburn has been crushed for 42 hits and 21 runs over his past 29.1 innings (6.44 ERA). This is bound to happen from a guy who pitches to balls in play as much as Blackburn, he strikes out just 4.5 hitters per nine innings to only 1.68 walks. He is looking like he could be a younger version of Los Angeles’ Jon Garland, good for the Twins, not good for fantasy owners.

INJURY REPORT

Daniel Cabrera’s time in Baltimore may officially be over as the right-hander suffered an elbow strain that landed him on the disabled list. There were a few flashes of brilliance this season, but overall he again suffered with command problems with 90 walks and an ERA over 5.00.

A pair of Red Sox hitters continue to have trouble with injuries. Mike Lowell’s hip will require surgery after the season, but he continues to try and tough it out as the Red Sox enter the playoffs. He re-injured it running to first base Tuesday night against the Rays and has yet to return to the Sox lineup. J.D. Drew on the other hand has yet to return from his ailing back, which tightened up on Drew during a batting practice session last week. The latest reports have the Red Sox making a decision early this week on what will happen.

The Blue Jays got some more bad news this week on another pitcher. Shawn Marcum, who had a terrific first-half to the season before suffering from some elbow soreness, was told that he will be forced to undergo Tommy John Surgery and will likely miss all of the 2009 season. That is a tough break for the Jays who also have Dustin McGowan on the disabled list with a partially torn labrum.

The Indians shut down Anthony Reyes for the season after Reyes had an MRI reveal inflammation in his right elbow. The good news is that he will not need surgery and will be in line for a shot at the Indians’ 2009 rotation.

You can stop waiting on Carlos Guillen’s return, the Tiger’s infielder is hanging it up for the year after it was revealed that the inflammation in his back is coming from a nerve in his lower back. He will receive another epidural shot and continue to rehab for the start of next season.

Not that it is of much consequence to fantasy owners, but veteran lefty Kenny Rogers is done for the season. It is being described as a “tired arm” by sources after Rogers suffered through another tough outing. We will see what Detroit does this off-season after Rogers finished with a 5.70 ERA at age 43.

The Angels are getting healthy for the playoffs as they enter the last week of play. Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins rejoined the team over the weekend in Texas, outfielder Juan Rivera is set to return early in the week while second baseman Howie Kendrick is “feeling great” and may return by the end of this week.

The Angels will however miss one start by Joe Saunders because of kidney stones. Saunders is tentatively schedule to make his last start of the season over the weekend instead of Tuesday night.

In Oakland, rookie second baseman Eric Patterson will miss the last week of the season with a groin strain that he suffered on Wednesday night. He finishes 2008 with a .192 average and 10 steals. Also of note, Justin Duchscherer was officially put down for the remainder of the season after a setback with his injured hip during a bullpen session Thursday.

Finally word came out on what had been going down with Erik Bedard all season. It has been revealed that he has been trying to rehab a torn labrum and cyst in his left shoulder. With this news finally coming to fruition, and the fact that Bedard is now scheduled for surgery, he is expected to miss at least 6-9 months, which puts his timetable into next season. It has also been stated that the success rate of this surgery is lower than that of Tommy John, so Bedard’s future is uncertain as of now.

Other Mariners out for the season, Adrian Beltre underwent successful surgery to remove bone spurs in his shoulder and a ligament replacement surgery to his thumb. He will be back for spring training. Also, Jarrod Washburn strained an abdominal muscle, which will sit him the last week of the year.

 

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Ryan Shealy, 1B—KC I am not and should not be sold on Shealy’s hot streak as anything sustainable, but as it is the last week of the season and he is hot, why not add him? Since being added to the Royals roster in September, Shealy has hit .302 with six home runs, 13 RBI, and eight runs scored in just 53 at-bats. Pretty incredible for a guy with just 12 career home runs in nearly 500 career at-bats before this call-up. He still is striking out too much, 24.5 percent of at-bats, so be careful to not expect too much entering next season and think of him as a sleeper pick. He will not hit for a high average over the course of the season and his power is average to slightly above average at best. Yet right now it is worth a shot for one week.

• Coco Crisp, OF—BOS If you are in the need of some help with batting average and some shots at stolen bases this last week, Coco Crisp has been hitting the ball very well since the All-Star break and is now playing virtually full-time in the Red Sox outfield. Sine the All-Star break, Crisp has hit .317 with 24 runs scored and seven stolen bases in 142 at-bats, and also is hitting .386 in September with 11 runs and three stolen bases. For the season, Crisp is now hitting a solid .282, with seven home runs and 20 stolen bases. If he had played the full-season, one could argue that he would have had his best season in Boston since coming over from the Indians in 2006. The one change that has happened statistically this season that was different than the previous two years has been a return to normalcy with a BABIP of .323 and a 19.3 percent line drive rate.

• Freddy Garcia, SP—DET The Tigers have begun the transition to 2009 in their rotation as Kenny Rogers has been removed and veteran Freddy Garcia is auditioning for a job next year with the Tigers. He made his first start of the season last Wednesday night against Texas going five innings without allowing an earned run. He gave up just two hits and one walk while striking out three. He will get at least one more start Tuesday night against the Royals, and possibly one more against the Rays on Sunday, with both coming at home in Comerica Park. Going forward, should Garcia stay in Detroit and healthy at 32 years of age, he could be a solid sleeper in 2009. Before the shoulder injury and rehab over the past year and a half, Garcia averaged 14.5 wins and an ERA of 4.01 over his first eight seasons in the league.

• Phil Hughes, SP—NYY Phil Hughes is finally back and threw four innings with only one run allowed in his first start for the Yankees since April. He struggled with some command problems as his pitch count reached 89 through those four innings, but his walk total was only two to his four strikeouts, so it wasn’t as bad you would think. His next start will be against the Blue Jays on Tuesday night.  He faced the Jays once before this season in maybe his best start of the season where he went six innings giving up just two runs. If you need a late season strikeout opportunity, take a chance on Hughes. He has struck out more batters than he has innings pitched over his past seven starts, including his minor league starts.

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.