September 22, 2017

Hardball Retrospective – 1902 Season Replay

April 7, 2015 by · Leave a Comment 

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Wally Joyner is listed on the Angels roster for the duration of his career while the Astros claim Kenny Lofton and the Athletics declare Catfish Hunter. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Using a modified version of the Lahman Database (with the ballplayers linked to their original franchises), I imported the players into Digital Diamond Baseball and conducted a full-season replay with the as-played 1902 schedule.

Several housekeeping items:

  • American League schedule was omitted from the 1902 season replay due to a lack of ballplayers on each team.
  • Players on defunct teams such as Cy Young (Cleveland Spiders), Rube Waddell and Honus Wagner (Louisville Colonels) are excluded because their original team’s league ceased to exist by 1901.
  • I attempted to emulate player usage in the DDBB replay to real-life usage whenever possible.

This series of articles will reveal the results for each season replay and compare the outcomes to the OPW%, OWAR and OWS standings from Hardball Retrospective. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks with the print edition coming soon. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

1902 National League – Replay Results

The Chicago Orphans battled the Philadelphia Phillies into early September, when a six-game skid against the Beaneaters knocked the Fightin’ Phillies out of contention. Orphans third-sacker Bill Bradley (.325/15/119) topped the League in long balls and finished runner-up in RBI. Danny Green contributed a .327 BA, led the NL with 36 stolen bases and exceeded the century mark in runs scored. Jack Taylor (31-9, 2.54) paced the circuit in victories and ERA while matching Jack Chesbro of the Pirates with 7.9 H/IP.

Nap Lajoie (.395/5/83) compiled a 28-game hitting streak and barely missed the .400 mark in batting average. Phillies’ moundsmen Al Orth and Doc White amassed 20 wins while fellow hurler Bill Duggleby finished third in the League with a 2.75 ERA. Sam Crawford (.329/5/112) inspired Cincinnati to a third-place finish, ending the season only one-half game behind Philadelphia. “Wahoo Sam” legged out 19 three-base hits and tallied 111 aces. Jimmy Barrett sparked the Reds’ offense, scoring 114 runs along with a League-best 95 walks. Socks Seybold belted 11 taters and knocked in 118 baserunners. Noodles Hahn, Doc Newton and Jesse Tannehill all placed in the top ten in ERA and Hahn topped the leader boards with 19 complete games.

The Beaneaters battled the Pirates to a fourth-place draw. Charlie “Piano Legs” Hickman (.342/14/121) led the Senior Circuit in runs scored and RBI in addition to runner-up finishes in doubles (39) and home runs. Chick Stahl furnished a .326 BA and ranked second to Bucs outfielder Ginger Beaumont in OBP. Vic Willis (27-24, 2.90) and Togie Pittinger (24-15, 3.73) shouldered massive workloads for Boston as both exceeded 400 innings pitched! Beaumont accumulated 203 base knocks and earned the batting title with a .361 average.

Christy Mathewson (18-9, 2.61) fashioned the second-best ERA in his sophomore campaign and Harry Davis (.312/6/93) clubbed a NL-best 42 doubles for the Giants. Cardinals’ outfielder Homer Smoot fashioned a .350 batting average. Fielder Jones slashed 202 safeties and registered a .334 BA for the Superbas.

1902 National League – Hardball Retro Replay – Final Standings

1902 NL Batting Leaders 1902 NL Pitching Leaders
Team Batting Team Pitching
1902 Boston Beaneaters 1902 Boston Beaneaters
1902 Brooklyn Superbas 1902 Brooklyn Superbas
1902 Chicago Orphans 1902 Chicago Orphans
1902 Cincinnati Reds 1902 Cincinnati Reds
1902 New York Giants 1902 New York Giants
1902 Philadelphia Phillies 1902 Philadelphia Phillies
1902 Pittsburgh Pirates 1902 Pittsburgh Pirates
1902 St. Louis Cardinals 1902 St. Louis Cardinals

 

Replay Results vs. Hardball Retrospective Findings

Cincinnati outlasted the Beaneaters by a three-game margin in the Pythagorean Win Percentage (OPW%) standings with a record of 84-56 (.598). The Reds (45.4) bested the Phillies (37.8) and Orphans (37.4) in OWAR whereas the Beaneaters (314) outdistanced the Reds (282) and Orphans (280) in OWS. Boston’s lack of pitching depth contributed to the lackluster results in the DDBB replay.

On Deck

1903 Season Replay

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive

 

 

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