April 27, 2017

Hardball Retrospective – 1913 Season Replay

January 28, 2016 by · 2 Comments 

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Rabbit Maranville is listed on the Braves roster for the duration of his career while the Superbas claim Nap Rucker and the Cardinals declare Babe Adams. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Using a modified version of the Lahman Database (with the ballplayers linked to their original franchises), I imported the players into Digital Diamond Baseball and conducted a full-season replay with the as-played 1913 schedule. The “Player Libraries” which include the Opening Day rosters, lineups and starting rotations for each season replay (1901-1910) are available on the Digital Diamond Baseball website via the following link:

http://digitaldiamondbaseball.com/libraries/v5/HardballRetro-1901-1910.zip

A few housekeeping items:

  • Players on defunct teams such as Honus Wagner and Tommy Leach (Louisville Colonels) are excluded because their original team’s league ceased to exist by 1901.
  • I attempted to emulate player usage in the DDBB replay to real-life usage whenever possible.

This series of articles will reveal the results for each season replay and compare the outcomes to the OPW%, OWAR and OWS standings from Hardball Retrospective. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

1913 Replay Results

The Giants and the Athletics pummeled the competition in their respective leagues during the 1913 campaign. New York registered 97 victories, besting the runner-up Pirates by a 17-game margin. Jeff Tesreau (23-10, 3.05) and Christy Mathewson (22-13, 2.98) commanded the mound corps. George J. Burns socked 37 doubles, swiped 45 bags and tallied 102 aces. Pittsburgh’s Jim Viox stole 43 bases, posted a .304 BA and finished third in the National League with a .381 OBP. Otto Knabe slammed 43 two-base hits and Hans Lobert accrued 103 runs. Hank Robinson paced the League with a 2.44 ERA. Brooklyn first-sacker Jake Daubert claimed the batting crown with a .344 BA while topping the charts with a .390 OBP and 51 steals. Zack Wheat (.327/10/84) led all qualifiers with 226 base knocks and a .463 SLG, pilfered 43 bags and recorded 104 tallies. Red Smith drilled 46 doubles and Casey Stengel contributed 41 stolen bases. Nap Rucker (33-17, 2.97) delivered League-bests in victories and appearances (72). Sam “Wahoo” Crawford legged out 24 triples and scored 103 runs for the Reds.

Ed Konetchy topped the Senior Circuit with 25 triples, scored 100 runs and placed runner-up with a .444 SLG. Bobby Byrne manned the hot corner for the Cardinals, blasting 39 two-baggers and knocking in 99 baserunners. Babe Adams fashioned a 24-12 record with a 2.70 ERA. Nap Lajoie finished fourth in the League with a .326 BA, second-best with a .382 OBP and tallied a League-high 109 runs. Sherry Magee led all Major Leagues with 53 two-base hits. Cubs’ slugging first baseman Vic Saier paced the National League in home runs (12) and RBI (114) while teammate Fred Luderus walloped 11 moon-shots. The Chicago infield sparkled as Joe Tinker batted at a .330 clip and Johnny Evers delivered a .309 BA. Lefty Tyler compiled a 26-27 mark with a 3.35 ERA for the last-place Braves.

Connie Mack’s Athletics amassed 96 victories, disposing of the Red Sox and the rest of the Junior Circuit with relative ease. “Shoeless” Joe Jackson (.360/9/109) seized the batting title, led the League in OBP (.441) and runs scored (144) and placed second in SLG (.538). Moreover, Jackson recorded 211 safeties (tops in the League) with 41 doubles, 18 triples and 46 stolen bases. Four A’s teammates eclipsed the .300 mark in batting average. Stuffy McInnis tied Gavvy Cravath for the RBI title with 122. Eddie Collins filched 63 bases to top the leader boards and amassed 126 tallies while posting a .325 BA. Eddie Plank (19-10, 2.32) finished second in ERA. Cravath crushed a League-leading 15 moon-shots and slugged .474. Tris Speaker (.354/3/91) placed second in batting average and OBP. “The Grey Eagle” led the circuit with a .539 SLG along with 26 triples. Duffy Lewis fashioned a .309 BA with 112 runs scored and fellow fly-chaser Harry Hooper swiped 44 bags.

White Sox freshman lefthander Reb Russell (26-14, 2.42) led the American League in victories. Mound mate Jim Scott finished second with a 25-19 mark as the White Sox completed the season above .500 for the first time in Hardball Retro replay. Ty Cobb (.342/4/82) placed third in batting average and OBP. Tigers’ shortstop Donie Bush pilfered 61 bases. Walter “Big Train” Johnson (24-17, 2.14) secured the ERA championship. Clyde Milan scored 119 aces while Howie Shanks and Joe Connolly drove in 101 and 97 baserunners, respectively. Connolly drew the most walks in the League with 109. Rube Oldring slapped 30 doubles and 16 triples for the Yankees. Burt Shotton recorded 116 tallies and 104 bases on balls for the Browns. The Naps edged the Braves for the worst record in the Majors at 67-88.

1913 Hardball Retro Replay – Final Standings

1913 AL Batting Leaders 1913 AL Pitching Leaders
Team Batting Team Pitching
1913 Boston Red Sox 1913 Boston Red Sox
1913 Chicago White Sox 1913 Chicago White Sox
1913 Cleveland Naps 1913 Cleveland Naps
1913 Detroit Tigers 1913 Detroit Tigers
1913 New York Yankees 1913 New York Yankees
1913 Philadelphia Athletics 1913 Philadelphia Athletics
1913 St. Louis Browns 1913 St. Louis Browns
1913 Washington Senators 1913 Washington Senators

 

1913 NL Batting Leaders 1913 NL Pitching Leaders
Team Batting Team Pitching
1913 Boston Braves 1913 Boston Braves
1913 Brooklyn Superbas 1913 Brooklyn Superbas
1913 Chicago Cubs 1913 Chicago Cubs
1913 Cincinnati Reds 1913 Cincinnati Reds
1913 New York Giants 1913 New York Giants
1913 Philadelphia Phillies 1913 Philadelphia Phillies
1913 Pittsburgh Pirates 1913 Pittsburgh Pirates
1913 St. Louis Cardinals 1913 St. Louis Cardinals

 

Replay Results vs. Hardball Retrospective Findings

The Athletics cruised to the American League title and paced the circuit with 46 OWAR and 282 OWS. In the National League, the Giants tiptoed past the Pirates and Cubs. John McGraw’s squad held a comfortable lead in OWAR (48) and OWS (276).

On Deck

1914 Season Replay

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive

Comments

2 Responses to “Hardball Retrospective – 1913 Season Replay”
  1. Cliff Blau says:

    I find it hard to believe that a player who hit 5 home runs outside Baker Bowl in 1913 could play for a team that hit three homers at home the entire season and hit 15 HRs. It doesn’t seem like the proper adjustments were made for park effects.

  2. Derek Bain says:

    @Cliff Blau – Cliff, I reviewed the box scores to locate the data on Gavvy Cravath’s home runs in the 1913 Hardball Retrospective season replay. I utilize the Seamheads Ballparks Database for all ballpark data and enter this information into Digital Diamond prior to the start of every season replay. The data includes park factors and fence distances. Cravath belted 11 of his 15 home runs on the road which appears to be consistent with the difficulty of hitting the long ball at Fenway Park in 1913.

    4/23 @ Washington (J. Boehling)
    4/24 @ Washington (J. Engel)
    4/24 @ Washington (J. Engel)
    5/8 @ Cleveland (V. Gregg)
    5/10 @ Cleveland (W. Mitchell)
    5/12 @ Detroit (E. Willett)
    5/14 @ Detroit (F. Allen)
    6/23 @ Philadelphia (E. Plank)
    7/31 Cleveland (G. Kahler)
    8/7 Baltimore (R. Mitchell)
    8/8 Detroit (G. Suggs)
    8/16 @ Baltimore (G. Baumgardner)
    8/23 @ Cleveland (E. Yingling)
    8/24 @ Detroit (E. Cicotte)
    8/30 Washington (C. Cashion)

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