June 26, 2017

Hardball Retrospective – 1914 Season Replay

April 2, 2016 by · Leave a Comment 

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Miller Huggins is listed on the Reds roster for the duration of his career while the Senators claim Clyde Milan and the Tigers declare Eddie Cicotte. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Using a modified version of the Lahman Database (with the ballplayers linked to their original franchises), I imported the players into Digital Diamond Baseball and conducted a full-season replay with the as-played 1914 schedule. The “Player Libraries” which include the Opening Day rosters, lineups and starting rotations for each season replay (1901-1910) are available on the Digital Diamond Baseball website via the following link:

http://digitaldiamondbaseball.com/libraries/v5/HardballRetro-1901-1910.zip

A few housekeeping items:

  • Players on defunct teams such as Honus Wagner and Tommy Leach (Louisville Colonels) are excluded because their original team’s league ceased to exist by 1901.
  • I attempted to emulate player usage in the DDBB replay to real-life usage whenever possible.
  • I included Federal League statistics for “Original” players on the 1914 rosters. However I restricted their usage with a handful of exceptions.

This series of articles will reveal the results for each season replay and compare the outcomes to the OPW%, OWAR and OWS standings from Hardball Retrospective. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

1914 Replay Results

Boston amassed 99 victories en route to the American League pennant. Gavvy Cravath (.298/18/105) topped the circuit in home runs, bases on balls (114), OBP (.418) and SLG (.468). Cravath, Duffy Lewis and Tris Speaker scored more than 100 runs apiece. Speaker finished runner-up in doubles (41), triples (22) and stolen bases (50). Dutch H. Leonard (17-10, 2.02) led the Junior Circuit in ERA while mound mate Ray Collins contributed 21 victories along with a 2.76 ERA. “Shoeless” Joe Jackson claimed his second straight batting title with a .332 average as the Athletics mounted a late change but came up short. Stuffy McInnis (.315) and Eddie Collins (.311) completed a trio of A’s atop the batting charts. Frank “Home Run” Baker knocked in 121 baserunners to lead the League while Collins topped the leader boards with 128 aces and 53 steals. McInnis matched Senators’ center fielder Clyde Milan with 207 safeties.

The Tigers and Yankees tied for third place with 86 victories each. Ty Cobb batted .302 with 36 stolen bases but missed 46 games due to injury. Donie Bush pilfered 44 bases and recorded 121 tallies. George H. Burns placed fourth in the League with a .306 BA. Hooks Dauss (21-13, 3.04) and Eddie Cicotte (20-12, 2.93) bolstered the Detroit pitching staff.  The Yankees received offensive contributions from outfielders Wilbur Good (107 runs scored) and Ray Demmitt (20 triples) while the mound crew featured support from multiple hurlers including swingman Ray Caldwell (16-12, 2.58) and Ray Fisher (14-12, 2.38). The mainstay of the Senators’ rotation, Walter Johnson (19-20, 3.09) paced the circuit with 361 innings pitched and 36 complete games in 40 starts. Joe Connolly (.294/8/98) led the League with 44 doubles and finished third in slugging percentage (.441) while teammate Tillie Walker legged out a League-leading 23 three-base hits. Rankin Johnson fashioned a 16-11 record with a 2.97 ERA for the Naps. Joe Benz accrued 20 wins for the Pale Hose while fellow hurler Reb Russell placed runner-up with a 2.34 ERA. Burt Shotton nabbed 46 bags for an otherwise non-descript Browns squad.

Four teams contended for the National League pennant throughout the summer of 1914. The Brooklyn Robins triumphed over the Reds, Giants and Phillies, compiling a 25-14 mark after September 1. Brooklyn featured three of the top four hitters in the chase for the batting crown, led by Jake Daubert (.334/7/120). Casey Stengel batted .331 with 41 stolen bases and 110 runs scored. Zack Wheat tallied 101 aces and swatted 10 big-flies. Reds’ second-sacker Miller Huggins scored 119 runs and swiped a League-high 59 bases while “Wahoo” Sam Crawford laced 25 triples. Giants’ outfielder George J. Burns pilfered 53 bags and topped the leader boards with 103 bases on balls and 122 runs. Sherry Magee paced the League in doubles (50), RBI (123) and SLG (.475) while placing runner-up with 15 jacks.  Phillies’ aces Harry Coveleski and George McQuillan reached the 20-win plateau.

Al Shaw of the Cardinals led the National League with a .407 OBP. Chief Wilson blasted 10 long balls and plated 104 baserunners for the Pirates. Hans Lobert contributed a .307 BA and Max Carey added 48 stolen bases and 105 runs scored. Vic Saier crushed a League-best 22 circuit clouts and drove in 102 runs for the Cubbies. Heinie Zimmerman ripped 49 doubles and laced 18 three-base knocks. Bill L. James (20-23, 3.03) completed 40 of 42 starts and logged a League-high 386.2 innings pitched for the last-place Braves.

1914 Hardball Retro Replay – Final Standings

1914 AL Batting Leaders 1914 AL Pitching Leaders
Team Batting Team Pitching
1914 Boston Red Sox 1914 Boston Red Sox
1914 Chicago White Sox 1914 Chicago White Sox
1914 Cleveland Naps 1914 Cleveland Naps
1914 Detroit Tigers 1914 Detroit Tigers
1914 New York Yankees 1914 New York Yankees
1914 Philadelphia Athletics 1914 Philadelphia Athletics
1914 St. Louis Browns 1914 St. Louis Browns
1914 Washington Senators 1914 Washington Senators

 

1914 NL Batting Leaders 1914 NL Pitching Leaders
Team Batting Team Pitching
1914 Boston Braves 1914 Boston Braves
1914 Brooklyn Robins 1914 Brooklyn Robins
1914 Chicago Cubs 1914 Chicago Cubs
1914 Cincinnati Reds 1914 Cincinnati Reds
1914 New York Giants 1914 New York Giants
1914 Philadelphia Phillies 1914 Philadelphia Phillies
1914 Pittsburgh Pirates 1914 Pittsburgh Pirates
1914 St. Louis Cardinals 1914 St. Louis Cardinals

 

Replay Results vs. Hardball Retrospective Findings

The final standings in the American League mirrored the previous campaign in the top 3 slots as the Athletics bested the Senators and Red Sox. However, Boston edged the Athletics in OWAR (48) and OWS (291). The Giants claimed back-to-back pennants and paced the Senior Circuit in OWAR (47) and OWS (247).

On Deck

1915 Season Replay

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive

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