September 22, 2017

Be Prepared To Wait For The Next 500th Home Run or 300th Win

August 29, 2016 by · 1 Comment 

Without counting steroid speculation, a player who hit 500 home runs or recorded 300 wins was a lock for the Hall of Fame. The last pitcher to record his 300th win was Randy Johnson in 2009, while last season David Ortiz was the latest player to join the 500 home run club.

If you look down the all-time leaders list for both wins and home runs, there isn’t much coming up the pipeline. I’ll start with wins, where it is very possible we may never see another 300 game winner. The active wins leader is no other than Big Sexy himself, Bartolo Colon. Colon, 43, has 228 wins in his 19-year career. When you look down the list, the likelihood of seeing another 300 game winner looks more and more bleak. Let’s take a look at the top 20 active pitchers win list to get a true grasp on this.

Player Career Wins Age/Years In League
Bartolo Colon 228 43/19
CC Sabathia 221 35/16
John Lackey 174 37/14
Justin Verlander 169 33/12
Freddy Garcia 156 39/15
Zack Greinke 153 32/13
Jake Peavy 152 35/15
Felix Hernandez 149 30/12
Kyle Lohse 147 37/16
Jered Weaver 146 33/11
Bronson Arroyo 145 39/15
Jon Lester 139 32/11
Cole Hamels 133 32/11
James Shields 132 34/11
Ervin Santana 131 33/12
Adam Wainwright 130 34/11
Clayton Kershaw 125 28/9
Max Scherzer 117 31/9
David Price 114 30/9
Tim Lincecum 110 32/10

The only player on this list who has a chance is Clayton Kershaw, but even the great left-hander has the odds against him. If Kershaw could somehow repeat his brilliant first nine years for the Dodgers the exact same way, it would leave him at 250 wins at 37 years old. No one is hoping Kershaw slows down or gets injured, but the chances of him repeating his success or improving moving forward is slim to none. When you look at the numbers and combine that with how cautious franchises are of players’ pitch counts, it is pretty likely we will never see a 300 game winner again.

The 500 home run club will likely add a new member in the next two to three years in Miguel Cabrera. Miggy currently has 435 home runs so we can pencil him in for over 500 home runs, barring any major injury. After Miggy, there’s no one in the near future to envision hitting 500 home runs. Let’s take a look at the next 12 players after Cabrera.

Player Career Home Runs Age/Years in League
Adrian Beltre 431 37/19
Carlos Beltran 416 39/19
Mark Teixeira 404 36/14
Ryan Howard 374 36/13
Jose Bautista 301 35/13
Edwin Encarnacion 301 33/12
Adrian Gonzalez 300 34/13
Matt Holliday 294 36/13
Curtis Granderson 281 35/13
Ryan Braun 277 32/10
Nelson Cruz 270 35/12
Robinson Cano 265 33/12

It looks like Father Time will block all of these sluggers’ hopes of joining the 500 home run club. If you look down the list a little more, I would point out Chris Davis and Giancarlo Stanton. Davis, 30 years old with nine years of service, should be noticed just because of his 227 home runs. Davis is not even halfway to 500 and is already 30 years old, so the odds are against him.

Stanton is really the only active player besides Cabrera with a legit shot at 500. Stanton stands at 206 home runs at the age of 26, so he definitely has a great chance. The one concern with Stanton is his nagging injuries, as he has been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a groin injury. We can only imagine how many home runs Stanton might hit in one fully healthy season.

Do we have to lower our standards of baseball immortality? That is a question the baseball writers may have to face in the near future, as the 300 win club and 500 home runs club may be at full capacity forever.

Comments

One Response to “Be Prepared To Wait For The Next 500th Home Run or 300th Win”
  1. bob says:

    Very interesting. Thanks. My Yankees are in a rain delay as I write.

    I agree that we may never see another 300 game winner. With pitch counts limiting starters to less than 7 innings a game, to get a win you often need at least 3 relievers to pitch reasonably well to get the win. Another factor is the Tommy John epidemic. It can cost a pitcher close to 2 years out of his career. Finally, there has been some discussion of 6 man rotations.

    500 HR’s is probably more likely in the future than 300 wins. I agree on Miggy but I think Beltre could also make it with the help of some time as a DH.

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