June 27, 2017

Hardball Retrospective – 1916 Season Replay

September 19, 2016 by · Leave a Comment 

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Stan Coveleski is listed on the Athletics roster for the duration of his career while the White Sox claim Happy Felsch and the Yankees declare Urban Shocker. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Using a modified version of the Lahman Database (with the ballplayers linked to their original franchises), I imported the players into Digital Diamond Baseball and conducted a full-season replay with the as-played 1916 schedule. The “Player Libraries” which include the Opening Day rosters, lineups and starting rotations for each season replay (1901-1910) are available on the Digital Diamond Baseball website via the following link:

http://digitaldiamondbaseball.com/libraries/v5/HardballRetro-1901-1910.zip

A few housekeeping items:

  • Players on defunct teams such as Honus Wagner (Louisville Colonels) are excluded because their original team’s league ceased to exist by 1901.
  • I attempted to emulate player usage in the DDBB replay to real-life usage whenever possible.

This series of articles will reveal the results for each season replay and compare the outcomes to the OPW%, OWAR and OWS standings from Hardball Retrospective. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

1916 Replay Results

The Senators lost the pennant on the penultimate day of the season. Requiring a sweep of the Yankees in order to secure the American League championship banner, Washington pulled even with the Athletics during the first game of a doubleheader. Bob Groom (23-1, 1.24) twirled a no-hitter as the Senators prevailed 1-0. Ralph Young knocked in a pair of runs as the Yankees triumphed in the second game by a score of 3-1. Groom paced the Junior Circuit in ERA and WHIP (0.862) while finishing third in victories behind Babe Ruth and Senators’ mound mate Walter Johnson. “Big Train” completed 37 of 40 starts and fashioned a 2.56 ERA. A’s center fielder “Shoeless” Joe Jackson (.337/1/100) claimed the batting crown and topped the leader boards with 215 base hits, 49 doubles and a .466 SLG. Eddie Collins delivered a .314 BA, registered 199 safeties and paced the League in runs scored (115) and stolen bases (55). Frank “Home Run” Baker clubbed 10 round-trippers, second-best in the American League.

The Red Sox finished in third place, only three games off of the pace set by the Athletics.  Babe Ruth (27-16, 3.09) completed all of his 38 starts and led the League in victories. Tris Speaker placed runner-up in batting average (.332), doubles (39), runs scored (111) and walks (96) while heading the offensive charts with respect to OBP (.422). Red Sox batsmen also paced the circuit in home runs (Gavvy Cravath, 12), RBI (Larry Gardner, 103) and bases on balls (Harry Hooper, 97). Detroit totaled 80 wins and finished 4.5 games behind the A’s. Ty Cobb supplied a .317 BA with 104 aces and 51 steals. “The Georgia Peach” recorded runner-up finishes in OBP (.395) and SLG (.444). Harry Heilmann ripped 38 two-baggers and Wally Pipp led the AL with 20 triples.

Right fielder Happy Felsch (.304/5/84) led the White Sox in every major offensive category except doubles and stolen bases. Joe Benz fashioned a 2.38 ERA and a 1.093 WHIP in 47 games (18 starts). Indians’ shortstop Roger Peckinpaugh registered 100 tallies. Yankees’ first-sacker “Prince” Hal Chase manufactured the third-highest batting average in the League at .323 and placed runner-up with 212 base knocks and 19 triples. George McConnell fashioned a 1.82 ERA with a 1.001 WHIP and accrued 15 victories in 20 starts. Browns’ ace Jeff Pfeffer completed 35 of 41 starts and tallied 20 wins.

Reaching the century mark with a record of 100-55, the Giants outclassed their National League rivals. Cincinnati (93-62) was the lone adversary to challenge New York for the crown. Dave Robertson topped the leader boards with 16 round-trippers and 100 ribbies. Heinie Groh led the Senior Circuit with 103 aces and 80 bases on balls while George J. Burns matched Lee Magee of the Cardinals for the League lead in stolen bases with 49 apiece. Three of the Giants’ starting pitchers finished among the top-10 in ERA: Dick Rudolph (22-11, 2.34), Ernie Shore (19-8, 2.38) and Jeff Tesreau (23-9, 2.56). Reds’ first-sacker Bill Hinchman paced the League in batting average (.325), OBP (.391), base hits (201) and triples (28) while placing runner-up with a .464 SLG. Bert Niehoff drilled a League-best 38 two-baggers. The workhorse rotation of the Boston Braves leaned heavily on Jesse Barnes (32-22, 2.29) and Lefty Tyler (29-34, 2.61). With the staff short on healthy arms, both hurlers accepted at least 50 starting assignments.

Cardinals’ port-sider Slim Sallee (17-8, 1.60) seized the National League ERA title. Pittsburgh right-hander Red Faber finished second at 2.03. Cy Williams mashed 14 long balls and Vic Saier crushed 38 doubles for the Cubbies. Chicago’s Larry Cheney collected 18 victories and placed third in the League with an ERA of 2.09. The Robins featured a pair of batsmen tied for the second spot in the batting race – Bob Fisher and Zack Wheat at .307. Wheat led the circuit with a .469 SLG and earned the runner-up slot in OBP (.360), runs scored (101), RBI (91), and base hits (195).

1916 Hardball Retro Replay – Final Standings

1916 AL Batting Leaders 1916 AL Pitching Leaders
Team Batting Team Pitching
1916 Boston Red Sox 1916 Boston Red Sox
1916 Chicago White Sox 1916 Chicago White Sox
1916 Cleveland Indians 1916 Cleveland Indians
1916 Detroit Tigers 1916 Detroit Tigers
1916 New York Yankees 1916 New York Yankees
1916 Philadelphia Athletics 1916 Philadelphia Athletics
1916 St. Louis Browns 1916 St. Louis Browns
1916 Washington Senators 1916 Washington Senators

 

1916 NL Batting Leaders 1916 NL Pitching Leaders
Team Batting Team Pitching
1916 Boston Braves 1916 Boston Braves
1916 Brooklyn Robins 1916 Brooklyn Robins
1916 Chicago Cubs 1916 Chicago Cubs
1916 Cincinnati Reds 1916 Cincinnati Reds
1916 New York Giants 1916 New York Giants
1916 Philadelphia Phillies 1916 Philadelphia Phillies
1916 Pittsburgh Pirates 1916 Pittsburgh Pirates
1916 St. Louis Cardinals 1916 St. Louis Cardinals

 

Replay Results vs. Hardball Retrospective Findings

The Tigers edged the Browns and the Red Sox in a hotly contested battle for the American League pennant. In the Senior Circuit the Giants glided to victory, finishing eight games ahead of the Braves. Boston topped the AL leader boards by a comfortable margin in OWAR (49.1) and OWS (313) while New York dominated the NL charts with an OWAR of 47.4 and an OWS of 251.

On Deck

1917 Season Replay

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive

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