Baseball Gauge – Introducing our new version of Wins Above Replacement

In celebration of the new season, Seamheads.com and The Baseball Gauge are proud to announce our new Wins Above Replacement. The updated calculation has two major changes from our previous system. The first upgrade is our Fielding system, which now uses Runs Saved from Michael Humphreys Defensive Regression Analysis. This allows us to compare and [...]

Economics of MLB Ballparks

Several sources in the literature provide general and specific economic and financial data and basic sport statistics about each current and former Major League Baseball Ballpark (MLBB). These sources, as a group, include academic studies, articles in books, journals, magazines and newspapers, industry reports, and websites. With respect to MLBBs, authors focus on and analyze [...]

2012 Milestones (And Beyond): Home Runs

Depending on which camp you’re in, 2012 will either tickle you pink or make you throw up in your mouth.  With 629 home runs already under his belt, Alex Rodriguez is only one away from tying former teammate Ken Griffey Jr. at 630 and 31 away from catching Willie Mays for fourth place on the [...]

2012 Milestones (And Beyond): Hits

Last time around I looked at potential milestones in runs scored and Alex Rodriguez’s quest to join the top 10 in 2012, which looks likely based on his career average and last three seasons.  If you’re hoping for another new member of the 3,000-hit club, however, don’t hold your breath (unless you’re a Yankee fan, [...]

Fun With Retrosheet: Do Only Slow Runners Ground into a Lot of DPs?

There was a discussion recently on SABR-L about whether we can reliably determine that a player was slow from his offensive statistics. Several markers were proposed: low stolen base totals, a poor SB success rate, and few triples were some of those that were mentioned. So was a high number of grounded into double-plays (GIDP). [...]

2012 Milestones (And Beyond): Runs Scored

Ten days ago I wrote that we won’t be witnessing any real milestones in wins for a long time unless Jaimie Moyer makes a successful comeback, and even that’s no guarantee.  Using Bill James’ “Favorite Toy” at ESPN.go.com (called “Career Assessments” now), I deduced that CC Sabathia has a 45% chance of reaching the 300-win [...]

Albert Pujols is a Bargain

In order to understand why the Los Angeles Angels are getting a bargain by signing Albert Pujols for $250 million over 10 years, it is important to stop thinking like a fan or a sabermetrician or even a general manager. In order to understand a contract like this, you have to think like an accountant. [...]

2012 Milestones (And Beyond): Wins

Champagne has been quaffed in St. Louis, free agents have already begun signing with new teams (where have you gone, Jonathan Papelbon?) and the winter meetings are right around the corner.  Those of us who don’t live in tropical climes are looking for ways to stay warm as winter nears, and what better way to [...]

Multiple Hitting Streaks

While writing another article, I noticed that on April 18, 1931, Freddie Lindstrom and Mel Ott both extended long hitting streaks at the Baker Bowl, Lindstrom hitting in his 36th straight game there and Ott in his 29th straight. Of course, a hitting streak in a specific ball park is a rather obscure record and [...]

NORMALIZING NEGRO LEAGUE STATISTICS

Most baseball fans are familiar with the concept of ‘normalizing’ statistics. For MLB statistics, the most basic adjustment is to normalize for park effects. The simplest park normalization calculation takes the impact of a team’s park on runs scored then divides that number, either positive or negative, in half, and then that calculation is applied [...]

Fun With Retrosheet: Nelson Cruz Made Me Do It

Normally, I try to find someone else to blame for suggesting one of these posts, but this silly one is all mine. After noticing that Nelson Cruz had seven RBIs in the eleventh innings of Texas’ playoff series with the Tigers, I wondered what player had the most extra-inning HRs and RBIs in a season [...]

And your 2011 World Series Winner is…

About 30 years ago, Bill James introduced a prediction system that picked the World Series winner with 70% accuracy. He wrote about the system for Inside Sports magazine in 1982, then expounded on it in his 1984 Baseball Abstract. He developed the system in 1972 and it accurately predicted the World Series winner at a [...]

Fun With Retrosheet: League Leaders With the Fewest Games Played

Cliff Blau recently mentioned to me that Vince Barton led the NL in getting hit by pitches in 1931 despite playing only 66 games and wondered what were the fewest games for players leading their respective leagues in a hitting category. So since major league baseball returned to a 150+ game schedule in 1904 (and [...]

Fun With Retrosheet: Players With The Highest Percentage of Post-Season Homers

A quick one today: here are the players who have hit the highest percentage of their home runs during the post-season: Player First Last REG POST PCT Mickey Lolich 1963 1979 0 1 1.0000 Don Gullett 1970 1978 0 1 1.0000 Joe Blanton 2004 2011 0 1 1.0000 Paul Goldschmidt 2011 2011 8 2 .2000 [...]

Fun With Retrosheet: Come-From-Behind Batting Champions, An Update

John Pastier was wondering (among other things) about the record for the most days leading the league in batting average without winning the title. Here’s the list: Player Year LED DNL DNQ First Last Pete Reiser 1942 131 36 0 5-11 9-24 Lenny Dykstra 1990 125 37 10 5-11 9-14 Larry Walker 1997 124 57 [...]

Fun With Retrosheet: Come-From-Behind Batting Champions

Trent McCotter sent me a note yesterday pointing out that Matt Kemp has very nearly closed a recent 19-point gap in the NL batting race as part of his three-prong effort to capture the triple-crown. Which got us to wondering about the largest deficits overcome by batting champions. Since 1918, here they are: Days ToGo [...]

Chasing History

Not long ago I was preparing for some podcasts and projected the stats of a handful of players to see what their final numbers might look like and how they would look stacked up against each other as well as others throughout baseball history.  Three of those players—Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson and Justin Verlander—are definite [...]

When Will Girardi Learn?

The Athletics and the Yankees endured quite an intense battle Tuesday night. The Yankees, after trailing 6-0 going into the eighth inning, scored five runs and ultimately lost by just one run. The game ended with the bases loaded and a fly ball just four or five feet shy of a walk-off grand slam. The [...]

More Travel Means More Wins?

Realignment has become a serious issue in the ongoing labor talks in Major League Baseball. Everything from turning the Houston Astros into an American League team to abolishing divisions has drawn serious consideration. One issue, though, stands above all in complexity and also seems most logical. That issue has to do with evening out the [...]

All Phillies… All the Time –Three’s Company, 18’s a Crowd

Trying to narrow the Phillies field of outfielders down to the top three all time is like trying to pick out Steve Carlton’s three best wins, or Mike Schmidt’s three most memorable home runs (OK; the pennant clincher against the Expos in 1980, and number 500 against the Pirates… now choose a third… the game [...]

Koufax or Ryan? Tough choice for Torborg

Don’t ask Jeff Torborg to choose between Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan. The only man to catch no-hitters thrown by both can’t make up his mind. A former back-up catcher for the Dodgers and Angels, Torborg caught a perfect game thrown by Koufax in 1965 and no-hitters thrown by Bill Singer in 1970 and Ryan [...]

What’s Next For Derek Jeter?

Even before Yankees shortstop and captain Derek Jeter belted his 3,000th career hit, fans and media wondered aloud what would happen to him once he reached the coveted mark.  It’s not that we all expect him to turn into a pumpkin or anything, but the question remains: will the Yankees be willing to keep running [...]

All Phillies…All the Time — J-Roll

The last time I undertook the task of trying to figure out the Phillies’ All-Time Team at each position was something like 18 years ago… I think it might have been early in 1993, while riding in Jim Hardy’s BMW M3 in the wilds of Central Pennsylvania. Since Central PA is both pretty wild, and [...]

The Most Egregious MVP Snubs of All Time (at Least on Paper)

Not long ago I was watching an episode of “Prime 9″ on the MLB Network about the nine biggest MVP snubs of all time. Before the show even began, I knew what would be ranked number one because it’s always mentioned as the biggest injustice in the history of MVP voting: Yankees second baseman Joe [...]

Spahn-Marichal Marathon: Best-Pitched Game?

Long before pitch counts, five-man rotations, and an array of relief pitchers became the backbone of baseball philosophy, two future Hall of Famers locked horns in a 16-inning marathon that both completed. According to author Jim Kaplan, who chronicled that July 2, 1963 match in a book called The Greatest Game Ever Pitched, it will [...]

All Phillies…All the Time — What’s on Second?

Having previously answered the burning question, “who’s on first?” the time has come to address, “what’s on second?” The answer, unlike that given by Bud Abbott, is simple… an all-time Hall of Famer and the current best second baseman in baseball. Oh sure, there are others worth mentioning; Tony Taylor (backwards, Ynot Rolyat), Juan Samuel, [...]

All Phillies…All the Time — Who’s on First?

The Phillies have had several outstanding first basemen over the years… it’s just that very few of them, for various reasons, bothered to hang around for very long. Most notable among this group are Jim Thome (three years), Dolph Camilli (four years), Dick Allen (three years at first), Von Hayes (ditto, three years primarily at [...]

All Phillies…All the Time — The Catchers

Herewith is the first installment of the All-Time Greatest Phillies Team. Before undertaking this endeavor, some ground rules… This is one version of the “Greatest Phillies of All Time.” The key word is “great,” and it will be used in the larger meaning of the word, that is, beyond pure statistics. This is sort of [...]

COMMUNITY PLAYING TIME FORECASTS

Tom M. Tango at the The Book Blog is requesting fans to fill out playing time estimates for the team they follow closely.   In the past, these fan generated playing time forecasts have proven to be better than the ‘expert’ forecasts and better than ‘automated’ forecast systems. If you want to participate, the link is: [...]

Deviating from the Past

Every baseball ranking—even those based on statistics—is biased in some way. It’s what makes practically every list debatable. For instance, take a list as fundamental as “hit leaders.” As a counting stat, a player’s hit total is impacted by his place in the batting order as well as his lineup’s offensive strength, two factors that [...]

FEATURES OF THE BALLPARKS DATABASE

Besides the basic field dimensions and batting event factors, there are some other features of the ballparks database that I’d like to highlight: Starting with the index page, you’ll see that the default order is number of games played in the stadium.   Fenway Park and Wrigley Field are at the top.   This can be an [...]

Ballparks Database Updated!

Last month we rolled out the online version of the Seamheads Ballparks database, which contained descriptive information about every park ever used as a major league stadium, plus calculations of the impact on batting components for LH and RH batters beginning in 1950. Today we’ve released an update to the original data.   The latest detailed [...]

Measuring a Pitcher’s Ace Factor

Below is a statistical collection of the seasonal performances of every starting pitcher between 1950 and 2010. Each pitcher’s season, represented by a blue diamond, was measured by a calculation that didn’t consider any of the usual suspects typically used in measuring a pitcher’s effectiveness, such as ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, shutouts, or even ground ball percentages, contact [...]

Umpires: How Do They Impact Total Line Betting in Baseball?

Introduction I recently read an article about NBA referees and their ability to impact the over/under in total line betting. If more fouls are called, teams shoot additional free throws and play less than optimal defense. MLB umpires may also have the ability to impact the over/under in total line betting. If they call more [...]

Born in August? Welcome to the Majors

Fun fact: since 1965, players born on July 31 have spent a combined 30 years in the Major Leagues. Fast forward 24 hours to August 1, where players born that day have spent a combined 71 years in the majors. How could 24 hours make such a difference? It has been argued for some time [...]

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