“All In” – Starting Pitchers and the Hall of Fame

With the induction of Bert Blyleven into the Hall of Fame in 2011, every starting pitcher in the second half of the 20^th century who has HOF numbers is now in Cooperstown.

Let me be a bit more precise.  According to the CAWS Career Gauge, every starting pitcher whose career began after World War II and who posted HOF numbers during his career has been elected to the Hall of Fame.  There are a total of eighteen starting pitchers in this time-frame who have posted HOF numbers during their careers.  Thirteen are in the Hall and five are not yet eligible.

Bill James’ Win Shares system is the most comprehensive tool available to understand how good a season a player had.  It includes offensive and defensive contributions and adjusts for all relevant factors.  The CAWS Career Gauge (Career Assessment/Win Shares) uses win shares to measure how good a career a player had.

According to the CAWS Gauge, a starting pitcher who has a CAWS score of 235 or has 300 career win shares has obvious Hall of Fame numbers and deserves to be in Cooperstown.  In addition to these greats, any starting pitcher who attained a CAWS score of 180 in fewer than 2400 innings also has the numbers (e.g., Sandy Koufax).  (I do not include here those pitchers such as Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm and Goose Gossage who are usually viewed as relievers.)

Here are the starting pitchers who careers began after World War II who satisfy one (or more) of these criteria and who have been eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame.  There have been thirteen (13) such pitchers and all have been elected to the Hall.

The Starting Pitchers Who are in the Hall of Fame (2^nd Half of 20^th Century)

All numbers include the 2010 season.

Bold  =  Hall of Famer
CWS  =  Career Win Shares
CV      =  Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)
CAWS  =  Career Value  =  CV  +  .25(CWS — CV)

Player	Years	CWS	CV	CAWS
Tom Seaver	1967-1986	388	255	288
Gaylord Perry	1962-1983	369	243	275
Bob Gibson	1959-1975	317	258	273
Steve Carlton	1965-1988	366	240	272
Phil Niekro	1964-1987	374	235	270
Robin Roberts	1948-1966	339	246	269
Jim Palmer	1965-1984	312	252	267
Fergie Jenkins	1965-1983	323	233	256
Bert Blyleven	1970-1992	339	218	248
Juan Marichal	1960-1975	263	229	238
Nolan Ryan	1966-1993	334	191	227
Don Sutton	1966-1988	319	187	220
Sandy Koufax	1955-1966	194	190	191

As you can see, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton and Sandy Koufax each fell short of the CAWS benchmark of 235 but qualified under another benchmark.

Here are a few other starting pitchers from this period who are in the Hall of Fame but who do NOT have obvious HOF numbers according to the CAWS Gauge.

Player	Years	CWS	CV	CAWS
Jim Bunning	1955-1971	257	221	230
Don Drysdale	1956-1969	258	221	230
Whitey Ford	1950-1967	261	202	217
Catfish Hunter	1965-1979	206	184	190

In addition to the thirteen starting pitchers above who are already in Cooperstown, there are only five others from this period who are retired and did post HOF numbers during their careers – but who are not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame.  Here they are.

The Starting Pitchers with HOF Numbers — Not Yet Eligible for the Hall

Player	Years	CWS	CV	CAWS
Roger Clemens	1984-2007	432	260	303
Greg Maddux	1986-2008	398	246	284
Randy Johnson	1988-2009	326	230	254
Tom Glavine	1987-2008	314	203	231
Pedro Martinez	1992-2009	224	200	206

Like Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez satisfied (after thirteen seasons) the CAWS benchmark of a score of 180 or better with fewer than 2400 innings pitched.  Only a handful of 20^th century pitchers have accomplished this.  And all who have been eligible are in Cooperstown.

For those of you who are inclined to ask “What about so and so?” I am listing here a number of outstanding starting pitchers from this period who fell short of posting HOF numbers according to the strict benchmarks of the CAWS Career Gauge.

Some Good Starters Who Do NOT Have Hall of Fame Numbers

Player	Years	CWS	CV	CAWS
Luis Tiant	1964-1982	256	198	213
John Smoltz	1988-2009	289	185	211
Mike Mussina	1991-2008	270	186	207
Billy Pierce	1948-1964	248	193	207
Curt Schilling	1988-2007	252	191	206
Kevin Brown	1986-2005	241	193	205
Jim Kaat	1959-1983	268	181	203
Tommy John	1963-1989	289	165	196
Jerry Koosman	1967-1985	240	181	196
Mickey Lolich	1963-1979	224	179	190
Jack Morris	1977-1994	225	172	185
Vida Blue	1969-1986	202	178	184
David Cone	1986-2003	205	173	181
Orel Hershiser	1983-2000	210	171	181
Jamie Moyer	1986-2010	224	149	168
Andy Pettitte	1995-2010	206	149	163
David Wells	1987-2007	211	147	163

Note that Luis Tiant and John Smoltz posted the best numbers of this group.

Jack Morris is currently on the BBWAA HOF ballot and got 54% of the vote in 2011.  As you can see, there are a lot of starting pitchers who had a better career than Morris.  By no stretch of the imagination can he be considered good enough to merit induction into the Hall of Fame.  If he is elected, it will represent another glaring mistake by the BBWAA (similar to the election of Jim Rice).

I was pleased (and surprised) to see that so far all the starting pitchers since World War II who have HOF numbers have been inducted into the Hall.  Of course, with Roger Clemens’ steroids problems, that streak may soon come to an end.

Thanks for your time.

Mike Hoban
Professor Emeritus — City U of NY
Author of A GOOD CAWS: A Hall of Fame Handbook (2011)
http://booklocker.com/books/2968.html