In a post to SABR-L, Bill Gilbert wrote that in 2013 the following players will appear on the BBWAA ballot for the first time: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa and Curt Schilling. The implication is, of course, that this is a very strong group \u00e2\u20ac\u201c and indeed it is.<\/p>\n
But what are the chances that one or more of these players will be elected on the first ballot? I find this to be an intriguing question.<\/p>\n
Barry Bonds\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 career accomplishments are the second best ever<\/strong> for a position player (behind only Babe Ruth) according to the CAWS Career Gauge (based on win shares). He would normally be a first ballot choice for the Hall. I have recently written a three-part article here at seamheads.com suggesting that, given the evidence of the voting so far for Mark McGwire, no player suspected of steroid use will ever be elected to the Hall by the BBWAA. So, I do not think Barry will ever be elected despite his very impressive numbers.<\/p>\n Roger Clemens is the greatest right-handed pitcher of the modern era (1920 to present). Only Lefty Grove had a better career during that time frame. But, like Bonds, the blight of steroids will prevent his ever being elected.<\/p>\n Craig Biggio has the #25 best career numbers of the modern era. Among second basemen, only Rogers Hornsby and Joe Morgan have better career numbers during that time frame. I think he deserves to be a first ballot selection in 2013.<\/p>\n Mike Piazza is, arguably, the best hitting catcher of all time. The CAWS Gauge suggests that he has the third best career numbers for catchers in the modern era (behind only Yogi Berra and Johnny Bench). I think he deserves to be a first ballot selection in 2013.<\/p>\n Sammy Sosa has more than 600 home runs. But, according to the CAWS Gauge, he is the only player with 500 or more home runs who does NOT have HOF career numbers. Of course, he is also tainted by steroids and will never be elected by the writers.<\/p>\n Curt Schilling is the only one of these players who really did not even come close to HOF career numbers. The CAWS Gauge suggests that a starting pitcher should have a CAWS score of 235 in order to have obvious HOF numbers. Schilling, with a score of 206 is nowhere near that benchmark. Here are a few pitchers comparable to Schilling \u00e2\u20ac\u201c none of whom has HOF numbers.<\/p>\n I think that Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza have a good chance to be first ballot picks for the Hall in 2013. I do not think that any of the other four will ever (or should ever) be elected by the BBWAA.<\/p>\n But, hey, if Jim Rice (with his lack of numbers) could be elected this year and a deserving player like Bert Blyleven still is excluded, who really knows?<\/p>\n For more info on the CAWS Career Gauge, I would be happy to send you (by e-mail for free) a 100-page document entitled A HALL OF FAME HANDBOOK: Who Belongs and Who Does Not. Just drop me a note at mike_hoban@msn.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In a post to SABR-L, Bill Gilbert wrote that in 2013 the following players will appear on the BBWAA ballot for the first time: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa and Curt Schilling. The implication is, of course, that this is a very strong group \u00e2\u20ac\u201c and indeed it is.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-prof-hobans-hall-of-fame-blog"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1097"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1097\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
\n Luis Tiant<\/td>\n 213<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Mike Mussina<\/td>\n 207<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Billy Pierce<\/td>\n 207<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Curt Schilling<\/td>\n 206<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Dizzy Trout<\/td>\n 206<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Kevin Brown<\/td>\n 205<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Jim Kaat<\/td>\n 203<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n