{"id":1256,"date":"2009-06-14T06:08:36","date_gmt":"2009-06-14T13:08:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2009\/06\/14\/strasburg-some-numerical-reference-points\/"},"modified":"2009-06-14T09:45:50","modified_gmt":"2009-06-14T16:45:50","slug":"strasburg-some-numerical-reference-points","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2009\/06\/14\/strasburg-some-numerical-reference-points\/","title":{"rendered":"Strasburg–Some Numerical Reference Points"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Tuesday the Nationals\u00c2\u00a0set off down the yellow brick road to Strasburgville where the wizard is\u00c2\u00a0Scott Boras.\u00c2\u00a0 But Ted Lerner is no scarecrow.\u00c2\u00a0 The\u00c2\u00a0senior owner of the Nationals\u00c2\u00a0responded when asked\u00c2\u00a0how\u00c2\u00a0much\u00c2\u00a0the economic downturn hurt him by saying, “I own buildings, not bullshit.”\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0He wants a six-year lease on a very real Stephen Strasburg and the man has a history of getting value for his money.\u00c2\u00a0<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n

In a recent article <\/a>in the Washingon Post, Frederick Frommer did an excellent job of giving a Washington flavor to the huge hype surrounding\u00c2\u00a0Strasburg.\u00c2\u00a0 He compared the young phenom to Walter Johnson,\u00c2\u00a0the last great Hall of Fame hurler to pitch in this city.\u00c2\u00a0 Camilo Pascual and Dick Bosman were fine pitchers, but no one has even come close to “Big Train” since he hung up the spikes in 1927.<\/p>\n

According to Frommer\u00c2\u00a0Walter Johnson created much of the same high-level excitement, especially in the run up to his first major league game.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0If Ted Lerner can sign Strasburg this summer, his first game in the majors–likely in September–will generate much the same hype and level of excitement as Walter Johnson’s.\u00c2\u00a0 It also will bring in huge crowds of paying customers to see the young phenom try to stake his claim to that tradition.<\/p>\n

Ted Lerner understands the value, but before any of the excitement comes to pass he must calculate\u00c2\u00a0the cost of bringing the circus to town.<\/p>\n

Tim Kurkjian’s interview of Ross Ohlendorf<\/a>, the Pittsburgh pitcher with the Princeton pedigree provides a great starting point.\u00c2\u00a0 Ohlendorf’s senior thesis in economics calculated the net return on investment of top draftees from 1988-1992.\u00c2\u00a0 Among the top values were Jason Giambi, Scott Rolen, Mike Mussina, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Lee.\u00c2\u00a0 He did it by comparing their economic value\u00c2\u00a0in their first\u00c2\u00a0five years of playing time prior to free agency\u00c2\u00a0to the market value\u00c2\u00a0of an average free agent during the same period.<\/p>\n

The most valuable signing in Ohlendorf’s calculations was Jason Giambi.\u00c2\u00a0 He projected Giambi as having a net worth to the Oakland A’s of almost 34 million before free agency.\u00c2\u00a0 Ohlendorf got an A on his paper, but regardless how exacting the\u00c2\u00a0calculations, they provide a good\u00c2\u00a0benchmark against which to measure the value of\u00c2\u00a0Strasburg.<\/p>\n

Boras may stress the value the young phenom has to a hungry fan base starved for a winner.\u00c2\u00a0 He is comparing Strasburg to Dice-K figure and his initial signing bonus of $50 million.\u00c2\u00a0 All well and good, but numerous clear-eyed analysts have\u00c2\u00a0noted that Matsuzaka was 26 and an established Japanese pitching star when the Red Sox ponied up\u00c2\u00a0that staggering amount.\u00c2\u00a0 Strasburg’s resume is far less extensive.<\/p>\n

But if one examines Ohlendorf’s listing there is a name that provides a very good reference for\u00c2\u00a0Strasburg’s potential value: Mike Mussina.\u00c2\u00a0 Mussina is the only pitcher on the list which points to how risky it is to venture large sums of money on young pitchers.<\/p>\n

There are so few pitchers on Ohlendorf’s list\u00c2\u00a0because\u00c2\u00a0there are so few Mike Mussinas who\u00c2\u00a0have\u00c2\u00a0jumped\u00c2\u00a0from pitching in college to the majors as quickly.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0He was taken with the 20th pick of the amateur draft in 1990 and the next season was in the majors where he logged 12 starts with a 2.87 ERA.\u00c2\u00a0 He never looked back, never needed another inning of minor league seasoning.<\/p>\n

Keith Law compared Strasburg to Justin Verlander who had a similar rise.\u00c2\u00a0 He was the second pick overall in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion College, signed\u00c2\u00a0a contract valued at around $6 million\u00c2\u00a0and was pitching in the majors the next year.\u00c2\u00a0 He achieved success almost immediately and\u00c2\u00a0 helped turn the 2003 Tigers that lost 120 games into a winner.\u00c2\u00a0 That is exactly what the Nationals want from Strasburg.<\/p>\n

Verlander and Mussina are valid reference points.\u00c2\u00a0 Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus provides another.\u00c2\u00a0 He projects\u00c2\u00a0Strasburg’s\u00c2\u00a0college statistics\u00c2\u00a0to a major league equivalent of 3.54 this season.\u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0So maybe Strasburgs makes the jump as quickly as the best college pitchers.<\/p>\n

If so, what does Ohlendorf’s table say about his value in today’s market?\u00c2\u00a0 Ohlendorf’s economic thesis says\u00c2\u00a0Mike Mussina was worth about $22 million to the Orioles in the mid 1990’s.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0Adjusting\u00c2\u00a0that figure for inflation, we get a current Mussina value of\u00c2\u00a0approximately\u00c2\u00a0$33 million in today’s dollars.<\/p>\n

So if Strasburg can put up the rather impressive numbers Mussina did in his first five years (71-41 and an ERA around 3), he is worth $33 million today.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0Although Verlander was not included in Ohlendorf’s calculations, his record of 53-36 and an ERA of\u00c2\u00a03.94\u00c2\u00a0is\u00c2\u00a0worth somewhat less.\u00c2\u00a0 So the upper reaches of reasonable value for Strasburg probably looks more like Mussina or Verlander than Dice-K.<\/p>\n

Scott Boras will be making the argument that Strasburg is different, in a league of his own.\u00c2\u00a0 It is what he is paid to do.\u00c2\u00a0 But the ultimate problem of agents and their clients is\u00c2\u00a0believing their own hype.\u00c2\u00a0 It all comes down to what Stephen Strasburg thinks.\u00c2\u00a0 Does he believe he can step onto the field and be the next Walter Johnson?\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0Or does he\u00c2\u00a0hope to emulate the best college pitchers of the modern era: Mike Mussina and Justin Verlander.<\/p>\n

Ted Lerner was making serious money before Scott Boras was born.\u00c2\u00a0 My guess is that he knows what Stephen Strasburg is worth to him,\u00c2\u00a0knows what the chances are that he has another Walter Johnson or Mike Mussina.\u00c2\u00a0 That is why he cleared his draft board of any other drama to devote the summer to signing this special talent.<\/p>\n

I believe that Ted Lerner will pay the price and\u00c2\u00a0Stephen Strasburg will settle for something in the Mike Mussina ballpark\u00c2\u00a0of $30 million, probably slightly less.\u00c2\u00a0 Ultimately the question is whether the biggest signing bonus in history\u00c2\u00a0and\u00c2\u00a0having Walter Johnson watching over his shoulder will be\u00c2\u00a0enough for Strasburg himself.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0How much does he want\u00c2\u00a0to play, how much does he need to find where he fits within the continuum of baseball history.\u00c2\u00a0 There is no better place to look for an answer than in the city that made “Big Train” a legend.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0I am betting we will start down the road to Straburgville this September.\u00c2\u00a0 It will be exciting indeed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last Tuesday the Nationals\u00c2\u00a0set off down the yellow brick road to Strasburgville where the wizard is\u00c2\u00a0Scott Boras.\u00c2\u00a0 But Ted Lerner is no scarecrow.\u00c2\u00a0 The\u00c2\u00a0senior owner of the Nationals\u00c2\u00a0responded when asked\u00c2\u00a0how\u00c2\u00a0much\u00c2\u00a0the economic downturn hurt him by saying, “I own buildings, not bullshit.”\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0He wants a six-year lease on a very real Stephen Strasburg and the man has […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":73,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-a-view-from-the-capital","category-general"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/73"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1256\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}