When fans talk about who belongs in the Hall of Fame, mention is often made of the three \u00e2\u20ac\u0153rules of thumb\u00e2\u20ac\u009d that have been around for some time.\u00c2\u00a0 That is, a player \u00e2\u20ac\u0153deserves to be in the Hall of Fame\u00e2\u20ac\u009d if he<\/p>\n
Of course, there are no such \u00e2\u20ac\u0153rules.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 But this has become a standard belief among many fans because, in fact, virtually all players who have attained any of these distinctions are in fact in the Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, it appears that the steroids era may put an end to the two batting achievements as \u00e2\u20ac\u0153rules of thumb\u00e2\u20ac\u009d since Mark McGwire (500 home runs) and Rafael Palmeiro (500 home runs and 3000 hits) do not appear to be headed to Cooperstown any time soon.\u00c2\u00a0 And Roger Clemens may put an end to the 300 wins \u00e2\u20ac\u0153rule\u00e2\u20ac\u009d when he becomes eligible.<\/p>\n
Be that as it may, in this essay, I will look at the third \u00e2\u20ac\u0153rule\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201c that is, pitchers who attain 300 wins.\u00c2\u00a0 And I will show that, given what has actually happened in the voting for the Hall of Fame, this particular concept should be replaced at this point in time with the new \u00e2\u20ac\u0153rule of thumb\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201c Any pitcher who earns 300 win shares in his career deserves be in the Hall of Fame.<\/strong><\/p>\n Bill James\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 Win Shares system is the most comprehensive tool available to understand how good a season<\/strong> a player had.\u00c2\u00a0 It includes offensive and defensive contributions and adjusts for all relevant factors.\u00c2\u00a0 The CAWS Career Gauge (Career Assessment\/Win Shares) uses win shares to measure how good a career<\/strong> a player had.<\/p>\n In doing the research involved in creating the CAWS Career Gauge, it has become obvious to me that 300 win shares for a pitcher denotes a very special milestone.\u00c2\u00a0 And it is important to note I am not so much advocating what should happen<\/em> \u00e2\u20ac\u201c as I am pointing out what has in fact already happened.<\/strong><\/p>\n Consider the following:\u00c2\u00a0 In the modern era (1920 to present), there have been only thirteen (13) pitchers who have recorded 300 wins – and every one of them who has been eligible is in the Hall of Fame.<\/strong> Of course, this is not really surprising since winning 300 games is quite an achievement.\u00c2\u00a0 Here are those pitchers and the number of wins each recorded (for the purposes of this essay, Pete Alexander is not considered to be a modern era pitcher).\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 The first number is games won and the number in parentheses is career win shares.<\/p>\n Pitchers with 300 Wins in the Modern Era (13)<\/strong><\/p>\n It is interesting to note that each of these pitchers has also earned 300 career win shares.\u00c2\u00a0 Of course, that is not too surprising either since one might expect that any starting pitcher who pitched long enough and well enough to win 300 games should have accumulated at least 300 win shares.<\/p>\n What is surprising however is the following: <\/em>During the modern era, besides the thirteen pitchers above, there have been only ten (10) other pitchers who have earned 300 career win shares \u00e2\u20ac\u201c and every one of them is also in the Hall of Fame .<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Pitchers with 300 Win Shares but not 300 Wins <\/strong>(all are in the Hall of Fame):<\/p>\n That\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s right.\u00c2\u00a0 What we see is that there have been only 23 pitchers<\/strong> who have earned 300 career win shares (in the modern era) and every one of them who has been eligible is in the Hall of Fame.<\/strong> (And the four who have not yet been eligible clearly have HOF numbers according to the CAWS Career Gauge: Maddux, Clemens, Glavine and Johnson).<\/p>\n Therefore, what can we conclude from these facts?<\/p>\n Actually, something that is quite significant.\u00c2\u00a0 What this means is that the voters for the Hall of Fame have decreed by their votes (whether they know it or not) that 300 win shares for a pitcher virtually guarantees induction into Cooperstown. <\/strong><\/p>\n So, we have our new \u00e2\u20ac\u0153rule of thumb:\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 A pitcher who earns 300 career win shares is a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n If you do not agree with this conclusion, that is fine.\u00c2\u00a0 But your argument would be with the voters \u00e2\u20ac\u201c not with me.\u00c2\u00a0 I am just the messenger delivering the news.<\/p>\n Hall of Fame Numbers Without 300 Wins or Win Shares<\/strong><\/p>\n In pointing out this new \u00e2\u20ac\u0153rule of thumb,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d it is not my intention to suggest that in order to achieve HOF numbers during a career that a pitcher must earn 300 win shares.<\/p>\n In fact, there are a number of pitchers in the modern era who have not earned that many win shares but who do in fact have career HOF numbers<\/em><\/strong> according to the CAWS Career Gauge.\u00c2\u00a0 That is, they fit into one or more different groups that also define pitching greatness.<\/p>\n Here are the other modern era pitchers who have put up HOF numbers but who do not have 300 career win shares.<\/p>\n A CAWS Score of At Least 235 (6 pitchers)<\/strong><\/p>\n Bob Feller All of these pitchers except for Carl Mays are already in Cooperstown.\u00c2\u00a0 Hopefully, the Veterans Committee will vote Mays in one of these days.<\/p>\n There are a few other pitchers from the modern era who achieved pitching greatness while pitching relatively fewer innings.<\/p>\n A CAWS Score of 180 with Fewer Than 2400 Innings Pitched (6 pitchers)<\/strong><\/p>\n Pedro Martinez All of these pitchers who have been eligible are in the Hall of Fame (Koufax, Wilhelm, Gossage and Dean).<\/p>\n Finally, there are five relief pitchers who have achieved greatness with still fewer innings pitched.<\/p>\n A CAWS Score of 150 with Fewer Than 1500 Innings Pitched (5 pitchers)<\/strong><\/p>\n Mariano Rivera Of this group, only Bruce Sutter is in the Hall of Fame at present.\u00c2\u00a0 Lee Smith is currently on the Hall of Fame ballot.\u00c2\u00a0 And Mariano and Wagner are not yet eligible.\u00c2\u00a0 Only Dan Q has been passed over completely at this time.<\/p>\n According to the CAWS Career Gauge, at the end of the 2010 season, these seventeen (17) pitchers together with the twenty-three (23) mentioned above are the only pitchers from the modern era to have posted obvious Hall of Fame numbers.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n That is, these forty (40) pitchers are the most obvious choices among the pitchers for induction into Cooperstown.<\/p>\n Thanks for your time.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n Warren Spahn<\/td>\n 363<\/td>\n (412)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Greg Maddux<\/td>\n 355<\/td>\n (398)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Roger Clemens<\/td>\n 354<\/td>\n (432)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Steve Carlton<\/td>\n 329<\/td>\n (366)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Nolan Ryan<\/td>\n 324<\/td>\n (334)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Don Sutton<\/td>\n 324<\/td>\n (319)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Phil Niekro<\/td>\n 318<\/td>\n (374)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Gaylord Perry<\/td>\n 314<\/td>\n (369)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Tom Seaver<\/td>\n 311<\/td>\n (388)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Tom Glavine<\/td>\n 305<\/td>\n (314)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Randy Johnson<\/td>\n 303<\/td>\n (326)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Lefty Grove<\/td>\n 300<\/td>\n (391)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Early Wynn<\/td>\n 300<\/td>\n (309)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n
\n Bert Blyleven<\/td>\n 339<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Robin Roberts<\/td>\n 339<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Fergie Jenkins<\/td>\n 323<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Red Ruffing<\/td>\n 322<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Bob Gibson<\/td>\n 317<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Eppa Rixey<\/td>\n 315<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Jim Palmer<\/td>\n 312<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Ted Lyons<\/td>\n 312<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Carl Hubbell<\/td>\n 305<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Dennis Eckersley<\/td>\n 301<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\nBurleigh Grimes
\nHal Newhouser
\nJuan Marichal
\nCarl Mays
\nStan Covaleski<\/p>\n
\nSandy Koufax
\nHoyt Wilhelm
\nGoose Gossage
\nRoy Halladay
\nDizzy Dean<\/p>\n
\nLee Smith
\nBruce Sutter
\nBilly Wagner
\nDan Quisenberry<\/p>\n